NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 5 Preview: Pacers Look to Close Out Knicks in New York

The Indiana Pacers are one win away from their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000, and they’ll have a chance to seal the deal tonight in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden. After a dominant 130-121 victory in Game 4, the Pacers hold a commanding 3-1 series lead over the New York Knicks, who now face elimination on their home floor. The pressure is squarely on the Knicks, who must win to keep their championship hopes alive, but history suggests they’re up against long odds.

This series has been defined by Indiana’s explosive offense, which has shredded New York’s usually stout defense. The Pacers have scored at least 120 points in three straight games, exposing the Knicks’ fatigue and defensive breakdowns. Tyrese Haliburton has been the engine of Indiana’s attack, orchestrating the league’s fastest-paced offense with surgical precision. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam’s mid-range dominance and Myles Turner’s rim protection have given New York fits. If the Knicks can’t find answers tonight, their season will end in front of a frustrated home crowd.

On the other side, the Knicks are desperate for a spark. Jalen Brunson has been heroic all postseason, but the workload may finally be catching up to him. With Karl-Anthony Towns questionable, New York’s offense has become overly reliant on Brunson and Mikal Bridges. The Knicks’ defense, once their calling card, has looked vulnerable against Indiana’s relentless ball movement. If they can’t slow down the Pacers’ transition attack and force more half-court battles, this could be their final game of the season.

Will the Knicks fight back and force a Game 6, or will the Pacers advance to the NBA Finals?

AI Model Predictions

1. BetQL: NYK 114 – IND 110

2. ESPN BPI: NYK 112 – IND 111

3. SportsLine: NYK 113 – IND 109

4. FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR: NYK 111 – IND 112

5. DRatings (AI Model): NYK 115 – IND 108

Average Prediction:

• Knicks: 113.0

• Pacers: 110.0

• Projected Line: Knicks -3, Total 223 (matches Vegas)

Apply Pythagorean Theorem & Strength of Schedule

Using Pythagorean Win Expectation (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency):

• Pacers: 118.9 ORtg | 115.8 DRtg

• Knicks: 116.2 ORtg | 114.1 DRtg

Pythagorean Score Projection:

• Pacers Expected Score:

  Pace Adj.×(ORtgLeague Avg)≈114Pace Adj.×(League AvgORtg​)≈114

• Knicks Expected Score:

  Pace Adj.×(ORtgLeague Avg)≈112Pace Adj.×(League AvgORtg​)≈112

Strength of Schedule Adjustment:

• Pacers faced slightly tougher defenses in the playoffs.

• Knicks have home-court advantage (+3 pts historically).

Adjusted Prediction: Knicks 113 – Pacers 111

Account for Injuries & Trends

Key Factors:

1. Injuries:

   • Aaron Nesmith (Questionable): If he sits, Pacers lose a key wing defender (~2-pt swing).

   • Karl-Anthony Towns (Questionable): If he plays, Knicks’ offense improves (~3-pt swing).

   • Assuming both play limited minutes.

2. Trends:

   • Pacers are 3-1 in series, averaging 123 PPG last 3 games.

   • Knicks’ defense has struggled (121+ allowed in 3 straight).

   • Home teams in ECF Game 5s are 10-4 ATS last 14.

3. News:

   • No confirmed sit-outs beyond injuries listed.

   • Knicks are desperate; Pacers may ease off if up big.

Prediction

• AI Models Avg: Knicks 113 – Pacers 110

• Our Adjusted Model: Knicks 113 – Pacers 111

• Vegas Line: Knicks -4 | Total 223

Recommendation:

• Lean: Pacers +4 (Close game, but Pacers’ offense is hot and Knicks’ defense is shaky).

Pick:

• Take the Indiana Pacers +4 points.