The Indiana Pacers shocked the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1, stealing home-court advantage with a gritty performance. Now, as the series shifts to Game 2 on May 6, 2025, the Cavaliers look to even things up at home, but injuries and trends suggest another tight battle.

With Cleveland listed as 9-point favorites and the total set at 229.5, bettors are weighing whether the Cavs can bounce back or if the Pacers will continue their surprising playoff run.

Key Storylines Heading Into Game 2

1. Cavaliers’ Injury Concerns Loom Large

The Cavs’ biggest issue is availability. Evan Mobley (questionable) is crucial for their interior defense, while Darius Garland (questionable) drives their half-court offense. If either (or both) sit, Cleveland’s ceiling drops significantly. Meanwhile, Indiana only misses backup big Isaiah Jackson, meaning their high-powered offense remains intact.

2. Pacers’ Road Dominance Continues?

Indiana thrived away from home all season, and their Game 1 win reinforced that trend. They’re now 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings vs. Cleveland, making the +9 spread an intriguing value.

3. Will Defense or Pace Decide Game 2?

The Cavs want to slow this game down, while the Pacers push the tempo. The total (229.5) suggests a high-scoring affair, but Cleveland’s defensive adjustments—especially if Mobley plays—could shift this toward an Under.

NBA AI Betting Models’ Predictions

Model	Predicted Score	Spread Pick	Total Pick
BetQL	CLE 118 – IND 112	CLE -9 (IND +9)	Over 229.5
ESPN BPI	CLE 116 – IND 110	CLE -9 (IND +9)	Under 229.5
SportsLine	CLE 117 – IND 113	CLE -9 (IND +9)	Over 229.5
KenPom	CLE 115 – IND 111	CLE -9 (IND +9)	Under 229.5
TeamRankings	CLE 119 – IND 114	CLE -9	Over 229.5

Average AI Prediction:

Cavaliers 117 – Pacers 112
Spread Consensus: CLE -5 (vs. -9 market line) → Pacers +9 is the better AI pick
Total Consensus: 229 (vs. 229.5 market line) → Slight lean Over

My AI Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

Key Factors:

Pythagorean Win Expectation (Adjusted for Playoffs):

Pacers Offensive Rating (Playoffs): 118.6
Cavaliers Defensive Rating (Playoffs): 112.3
Pacers Expected Score: ~114
Cavs Offensive Rating (Playoffs): 115.8
Pacers Defensive Rating (Playoffs): 113.9
Cavs Expected Score: ~113

Strength of Schedule (SOS) Adjustment:

Pacers faced tougher opponents (BOS, NYK in reg. season).
Cavs had an easier path (injuries to Mobley/Garland hurt continuity).

Injury Impact:

Cavaliers:
- Evan Mobley (Questionable) – If out, CLE loses rim protection & rebounding.
- Darius Garland (Questionable) – If out, CLE loses playmaking.
Pacers: Only Isaiah Jackson (bench big) is out.

Trends:

Pacers are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. CLE.
Under is 4-1 last 5 meetings in CLE.

Final AI-Generated Prediction:

Predicted Score: Cavaliers 113 – Pacers 115
Spread Pick: Pacers +9 (Strong Value)
Total Pick: Under 229.5 (Lean, but close)

Averaging AI Models + My Prediction

Source	Predicted Score	Spread Pick	Total Pick
AI Models Avg	CLE 117 – IND 112	IND +9	Over 229.5
My AI Prediction	CLE 113 – IND 115	IND +9	Under 229.5
Final Consensus	CLE 115 – IND 113	IND +9 (Strong Play)	Under 229.5 (Slight Lean)

Best Bet for Game 2 (May 6, 2025):

Pacers +9 (-110) (6 of 6 models favor IND covering)
Lean Under 229.5 (But very close, could go either way)

Reasoning:

The Cavs’ injuries (Mobley/Garland questionable) hurt their defense and offense.
Pacers have been strong ATS vs. CLE recently.
AI models overwhelmingly favor Pacers covering +9.

Final Score Projection: Cavaliers 115 – Pacers 113 (Pacers cover, Under barely hits)

Pick

Take the Indiana Pacers +9 points.