June 13, 2024 1:10 pm EDT, Friday at Comerica Park Detroit, MI
The Washington Nationals are red hot, riding a season-high five-game winning streak. They head to Detroit looking to complete a sweep of their three-game series against the Tigers. Here’s a deep dive into the matchup, analyzing each team’s strengths and weaknesses, the starting pitchers, and why the Over/Under of 9 total runs might be the smarter bet.
Top Successful MLB Prediction Models
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus): (Score: Nationals 4.8 – Tigers 5.1) Uses a complex statistical model to predict wins, losses, and standings.
- Baseball Reference’s Win Probability (Win%: Nationals 47% – Tigers 53%) Analyzes recent performance and upcoming matchups. (Score: Nationals 4.5 – Tigers 5.3)
- Run differential models (Pythagorean Theorem): (Nationals: 4.8 Runs Scored – Tigers: 5.0 Runs Scored) Uses runs scored and allowed to estimate expected win percentage.
- Sabermetric Model (STATS Inc.): (Score: Nationals 4.2 – Tigers 4.7) Considers advanced statistics like on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG) for a more comprehensive picture.
Washington Nationals: Rekindling the Flame
The Nationals have been a rollercoaster this season, but they’ve finally found their rhythm. They’ve averaged nearly six runs per game during their winning streak, led by the sparkplug hitting of leadoff man CJ Abrams.
However, their starting pitcher for tonight, Patrick Corbin, presents a question mark. Corbin is struggling, having lost four straight decisions and surrendering eight home runs in his last four outings. Despite this, he has a good record against the Tigers, having won his only career meeting against them in 2023.
Detroit Tigers: Battling Through Injuries
The Tigers haven’t been as fortunate as the Nationals. Injuries to key players like Javier Baez and Alex Faedo have hampered their offense. Despite this, they boast a slight edge in home runs compared to the Nationals.
Their starting pitcher, Casey Mize, is also in a rough patch. He’s winless since April and has an ERA over 5.70 in his last seven starts. His inability to hold leads has been a significant concern for Detroit.
A Tale of Two Pitchers
Corbin’s recent struggles are concerning, but his past success against Detroit offers a glimmer of hope for the Nationals. Mize, on the other hand, needs to find a way to limit runs if the Tigers want to avoid another loss.
Offense Takes Center Stage
The Nationals’ slight edge in batting average could be a factor, but both teams have shown offensive firepower in recent games. With Mize’s control issues and Corbin’s penchant for giving up home runs, expect a hitter-friendly environment at Comerica Park.
Betting on Runs: Why the Over Makes Sense
With both offenses clicking and both starting pitchers facing vulnerabilities, the Over of 9 total runs seems like a good value bet. Here’s the breakdown:
- Nationals’ Hot Streak: Averaging nearly 6 runs per game during their winning streak.
- Tigers’ Home Run Power: Lead the Nationals in home runs despite injuries.
- Corbin’s Struggles: Prone to home runs and elevated pitch count.
- Mize’s Lack of Control: Struggling to limit baserunners and runs.
These factors suggest that both teams could find ways to put runs on the board. While pitching adjustments could always happen, the current trends point towards a high-scoring game.
The Nationals’ Sweep Dream
While the Nationals are riding momentum and have a favorable history against Corbin, their pitching question mark remains. The Tigers’ injury woes and Mize’s inconsistencies make them underdogs, but they still have the potential to pull off an upset with their home run power.
The Verdict: A High-Scoring Affair
This matchup has all the makings of a thrilling offensive showcase. While the Nationals aim to complete the sweep, the Tigers are hungry to snap their losing streak. Considering the offensive trends, shaky pitching matchups, and Comerica Park’s hitter-friendly tendencies, the Over of 9 total runs seems like the most attractive betting option for this game.
Pick: Over 9 (Push)
