1) What the (top) models are predicting — the data I found
I focused on a mix of widely cited projection models / sportsbooks / analytics sites (ESPN Analytics, Sports sites with simulation models, and data-driven pick services). Not all services publish a full numeric final score publicly (some are paywalled), but here are five reputable public projections I was able to collect with sources:
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ESPN Analytics (team implied totals → projected score) — ESPN’s game page lists team totals of LAR 23.5 / TEN 17.5, which implies a projected final score close to Rams 23.5 — Titans 17.5.
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Dimers (simulation model) — projected final score Rams 23 — Titans 18 (their 10,000-sim model).
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Sports Illustrated (SI Betting) — author projection Rams 24 — Titans 17.
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Oddsshark (computer pick shown on page) — shows a prediction that actually favors the Titans in their compute: Rams 15.4 — Titans 28.0 (odd one out; different model/weighting).
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CapperTek (simulation) — projected final score Rams 20 — Titans 21.
Note: SportsLine, BetQL and several other top-models publish high-quality simulations but either hide detailed numeric scores behind subscriber pages or present picks without explicit published scores. I still used the public model outputs I could confirm.
2) Average of those model scores (the user-requested “Model Predictions” average)
I averaged the five explicit projected scores above (step-by-step arithmetic):
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Rams scores used: 23.5, 23, 24, 15.4, 20 → sum = 106.9 → ÷ 5 = 21.18 → round → 21
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Titans scores used: 17.5, 18, 17, 28.0, 21 → sum = 101.5 → ÷ 5 = 20.30 → round → 20
Model average (rounded): Rams 21 — Titans 20.
(So the average of these five models produces a very tight Rams +1 margin.)
3) My independent prediction (method & result)
Inputs I used
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Pythagorean theorem (NFL exponent ≈ 2.37) based on very-small-sample Week-1 points: ESPN box/preview lists team points per game entering Week 2 as Rams PF = 14.0 / PA = 9.0; Titans PF = 12.0 / PA = 20.0. That produces Pythagorean expected win% numbers. (Caveat: one-game samples are noisy; I still run the math and then adjust.)
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Strength of schedule (SOS): recent SOS rankings show Titans with a tougher SOS vs. Rams (e.g., SharpFootballAnalysis / ESPN SOS lists). That means the Titans’ weak-looking early numbers might be partially explained by tougher opposition; conversely Rams’ strong defensive showing will be tested on-road.
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Injury / availability notes: Rams have interior OL injury concerns (Steve Avila listed DOUBTFUL, Kevin Dotson status flagged), plus a couple of questionable pieces — that matters vs Tennessee’s strong interior D. Puka Nacua is expected to play. Titans have a few non-QBs question marks but no public top-line QB absence. I folded those into a small offensive downgrade for the Rams.
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Recent form / matchup context: Rams Week-1 defensive performance was excellent (held opponent to 9 pts). Titans offense looked sloppier Week-1. Rookie/younger Titans QB (Cam Ward) adds variance. Several public handicappers and major outlets favour the Rams.
Pythagorean computation (exact)
Using PF/PA listed above with exponent 2.37:
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Rams Pythagorean win% ≈ 74.0%
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Titans Pythagorean win% ≈ 22.96%
(That’s a very strong edge for LAR on the raw small-sample Pythagorean metric — but small sample = high variance. I therefore don’t take the 74% literally; I use it as an indication Rams look materially stronger right now.)
(If you want the raw math lines I used, I can paste the step-by-step numeric calculation — I kept the intermediate math in my working notes.)
Adjustments I made
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Downweight Pythagorean huge edge because it comes from 1-game samples (PF/PA from Week 1 only) — I trimmed the implied margin.
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SOS tweak: Titans’ tougher schedule historically suggests their Week-1 poor offense may understate talent — I reduce my Rams advantage by a small amount (≈ 1.5–2 points).
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Injury tweak: Rams interior OL concerns → subtract ~2–3 points from Rams expected scoring (pass protection matters on the road).
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Game flow / coaching: Sean McVay (Rams) + veteran QB Matthew Stafford + top WR corps remains a structural advantage; Titans rookie QB increases variance in passing production.
My independent projected score (final)
After the above, my independent prediction for the game:
Los Angeles Rams 24 — Tennessee Titans 17
Rationale in one line: Pythagorean + matchup edge for Rams, small SOS & injury haircut to the Rams’ offense, Titans likely to score in the mid-teens. This matches several public models (ESPN / SI / Dimers clustered in mid-20s for Rams), and it’s slightly higher for LA than the simple model average because I give weight to the Rams’ defensive performance and offensive weapons despite OL risk.
4) News & trends I cross-checked (items that could flip this pick)
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Rams offensive line injuries: Steve Avila listed doubtful after the opener; Kevin Dotson status has been mentioned as questionable/week-to-week in Rams reports — if either is ruled out, pass protection is materially worse and my Rams score should be trimmed further.
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Puka Nacua status: expected to play after a helmet-to-helmet hit last game — his availability keeps Rams’ offense intact.
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Titans health: a few role players listed questionable or out (RB depth, OL pieces), but no public report that the Titans’ starter QB is out. If a Titans offense-limiting injury pops up it would push me stronger on Rams.
If any of the above change (major inactives or late rulings), that would move the edge materially. (I checked the public injury reports/preview feeds from ESPN/Action Network / Sports outlets listed above.)
