Mountain West Championship Preview: Boise State Broncos vs. Colorado State Rams

Offensively, the Rams are impressive, averaging 75.4 points per game, placing them 141st nationally. Defensively, they allow 67.4 points per game, ranking 55th in the country. Their offensive efficiency is highlighted by a 55.8% effective field goal percentage, ranking 25th nationally, and a 77.8% free-throw percentage, placing them 23rd.

Key players for the Rams include:

• Nique Clifford: A senior guard leading with 18.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game, shooting 51% from the field and 40% from three-point range.

• Jalen Lake: A contributor with 11.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game.

• Kyan Evans: Adding 10.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game.

Head-to-Head Matchups

This season, Colorado State has had the upper hand in their encounters with Boise State, winning both regular-season games:

• January 22, 2025: Colorado State won 75-72 at home.

• March 7, 2025: The Rams secured an 83-73 victory on the road.

Notably, in the March 7 game, Nique Clifford delivered a stellar performance, scoring 36 points on 72% shooting.

Injury Report

• Boise State Broncos: Dominic Parolin is listed on the injury report.

• Colorado State Rams: No reported injuries.

Coaching Analysis

Both teams are led by experienced coaches adept at making in-game adjustments:

• Boise State: Head Coach Leon Rice emphasizes a defense-first approach, focusing on limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities and controlling the tempo.

• Colorado State: Head Coach Niko Medved employs an offensive strategy centered around efficient shooting and ball movement, capitalizing on the team’s high effective field goal percentage.

Home Court Advantage

The neutral venue of the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas minimizes traditional home-court advantages. However, fan turnout and travel logistics could play minor roles. Both teams have performed well in neutral-site games this season, indicating adaptability to such environments.

Tempo

Boise State prefers a moderate pace, aligning with their defensive focus, while Colorado State thrives in a slightly faster tempo, leveraging their offensive efficiency. The game’s tempo will be a critical factor, as Boise State will aim to control the pace to disrupt Colorado State’s offensive rhythm.

Three-Point Shooting

Three-point shooting could be a decisive factor:

• Boise State: Struggles from beyond the arc, converting just 31.1% of their attempts.

• Colorado State: More proficient, shooting 36.2% from three-point range, with Nique Clifford leading at 40%.

Strength of Schedule

Both teams have faced challenging schedules, with notable performances against top-tier opponents. Boise State’s recent victory over New Mexico underscores their capability to compete at a high level.

Advanced Metrics (cont’d)

• Boise State: Ranks 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Their strength lies in defense, where they consistently limit opponents’ scoring and dominate the defensive glass.
• Colorado State: Sits in the top 55 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Their effective field goal percentage ranks 25th nationally, and their offensive prowess is supported by elite free throw shooting (77.8%, 23rd in NCAA). According to Bart Torvik, Colorado State has the 16th-best overall efficiency rating in the last 10 games, showcasing their upward trend.

Sagarin Ratings:

• Boise State has a slight edge in the overall Sagarin ratings due to stronger defensive metrics.
• Colorado State gains ground in recent power ratings, reflecting their 10-1 run entering this title game.

Haslametrics and Torvik both project a near toss-up, with Haslametrics giving Colorado State a +1.1 edge due to offensive consistency, while Torvik projects a Boise State win by less than one point due to a better “momentum” score and defensive advantage.

ESPN BPI:

• Projects a 51.3% win probability for Boise State, essentially a coin-flip situation.
• BPI slightly favors Boise State’s ability to control pace and play in close games.

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Historical Matchup Trends

This is the third meeting between these teams this season, and Colorado State has won both prior games. Most recently, on March 7, the Rams cruised to an 83-73 win, powered by Nique Clifford’s 36-point explosion on 72% shooting. Historically, teams that face off for a third time in a season, where one team won the first two meetings, win the third game 72% of the time in college basketball since 2005 — a strong historical lean toward Colorado State.

However, Boise State’s defensive resilience and tactical adaptability under Coach Leon Rice can’t be underestimated. They’ve adjusted well in-game during this tournament, especially in their semifinal win over New Mexico, where they held the Lobos to just five field goals in the final 20 minutes.

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Conference and Tournament Implications

This game likely locks both teams into the NCAA Tournament regardless of outcome, but the Mountain West crown adds seeding value. A win here could vault the victor into a potential 6-seed or 7-seed line, while a loss may drop the other to 9–10 range. The added motivation of a conference title and bracket protection increases the stakes.

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Betting Analysis

Current Odds:

• Moneyline: Boise State -112, Colorado State +104
• Spread: Boise State -1.5
• Total: 136.5

Public Betting Trends:

• As of this morning, roughly 58% of bets are on Boise State’s spread, but over 63% of the money is on Colorado State moneyline — signaling sharper bettors are leaning Rams.

Line Movement:

• Opened as a pick’em but moved slightly in favor of Boise State due to early volume.
• Total opened at 134 and climbed to 136.5, reflecting expectation of an efficient offensive game.

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Matchup Mismatches & Key Factors

• Nique Clifford vs. Boise’s perimeter defense: Boise State will need to rotate aggressively to prevent Clifford from catching fire. If they contain him, it shifts pressure onto less consistent CSU scorers.
• Three-point shooting efficiency: CSU has a sizable edge here. If Boise State continues to shoot poorly from deep (31.1%), it may be tough to keep pace.
• Rebounding: Colorado State’s Clifford and Cartier provide a rebounding edge that could generate second-chance opportunities.
• Pace Control: Boise must dictate a slower, grind-it-out tempo to reduce possessions and limit CSU’s transition opportunities.

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Prediction and Best Bets

Projected Final Score:

Colorado State 71, Boise State 68

Confidence Level: Medium–High

Colorado State’s offensive consistency, three-point efficiency, and the dominance of Nique Clifford — especially in recent head-to-heads — give the Rams a narrow edge. Boise State’s defense keeps it close, but CSU’s offensive rhythm and superior free-throw shooting may be the difference in a high-pressure finish.

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Recommended Bets

• Best Bet: Colorado State +1.5
  Reasoning: They’ve beaten Boise State twice already, have the best player on the floor in Clifford, and are in better form offensively. In a close game, take the points.

• Value Bet: Colorado State Moneyline (+104)
  Slight underdog status adds value on the outright win.

• Player Prop (if available): Nique Clifford OVER 18.5 points
  He’s averaging 18.8 PPG and dropped 36 on Boise last week. With no injuries and high usage, he should clear this line if the Rams stay competitive or win.

• Lean on Total: OVER 136.5
  Given both teams’ recent scoring trends (especially CSU), and Boise’s improved pace and shooting in the tournament, this number feels a bit too low.

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Final Thoughts

This Mountain West title game is everything college basketball fans love: intensity, revenge narratives, March momentum, and a possible NCAA seeding swing. Boise State has the defense, but Colorado State has the firepower, the best player, and the psychological edge of two head-to-head wins. Expect a thrilling game decided in the final minutes — with the Rams cutting down the nets.

PICK: Total Points OVER 137.5