The Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) is about to deliver a must-watch clash! The Texas Southern Tigers travel to Baton Rouge to face the conference-leading Southern Jaguars. This game is more than just a regular-season matchup; it’s a battle for SWAC supremacy and crucial seeding implications as we approach tournament time.
Date: Monday, February 17, 2025
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Arena: F.G. Clark Center, Baton Rouge, LA
Will the Tigers roar and upset the Jaguars on their home court, or will Southern maintain their dominance and extend their winning streak? Buckle up, hoops fans, because we’re about to dive deep into an expert prediction and total points analysis you won’t find anywhere else!
Tale of the Tape: Meet the Teams
Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s get acquainted with the contenders.
Southern Jaguars: The Kings of the SWAC Jungle?
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Record: 16-9 overall, a commanding 11-1 in the SWAC. Talk about a statement!
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Home Record: A Fortress in Baton Rouge – a perfect 9-0. No easy wins here, folks.
The Southern Jaguars have established themselves as the team to beat in the SWAC. They boast a potent offense, averaging a solid 76.6 points per game, good for 108th in the nation. What makes them so tough to handle at home? They crank that scoring average up to 90 points per game! They also dominate the glass, leading the SWAC with 35 rebounds per contest. Watch out for these key players:
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Michael Jacobs (Guard): The floor general, averaging a steady 9.9 points and dishing out 3.1 assists per game. He’s the engine that makes the Jaguars’ offense purr.
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Damariee Jones (Forward): A rising star who’s been heating up lately. Over the last 10 games, he’s averaging 10.6 points, providing a valuable scoring punch.
Texas Southern Tigers: Ready to Pounce on an Upset?
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Record: A respectable 11-14 overall, 8-4 in SWAC play. Don’t let the overall record fool you; they’re a dangerous team.
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Road Warriors: While not as dominant on the road as Southern is at home, they’ve proven they can steal wins in hostile environments.
The Texas Southern Tigers are hungry to climb the SWAC standings. Their offense relies heavily on the playmaking of their star guard, but they have other pieces that can contribute. Their keys to victory lie in defensive intensity and controlling the pace of the game. Here are the players you need to know:
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Kavion McClain (Guard): The engine of the Tigers’ attack. He leads the team in scoring (15 points per game) and assists (4.6 per game). If he gets going, the Tigers are tough to stop.
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Kenny Hunter (Forward): A consistent presence in the frontcourt, averaging 8.6 points in his last 10 games. He’ll need to battle hard on the boards against Southern’s tough interior.
Head-to-Head: What Happened Last Time?
These two teams tangled earlier this season, with Southern emerging victorious 67-58. What can we glean from that matchup? Southern’s defense clamped down on Texas Southern, limiting their offensive production. The Jaguars controlled the boards and dictated the tempo. The Tigers will need to make adjustments if they want a different outcome this time around.
Key Matchup Analysis: Where the Game Will Be Won or Lost
This game boils down to a few crucial matchups:
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Kavion McClain (TSU) vs. Michael Jacobs (SU): A battle of the guards! McClain’s scoring prowess versus Jacobs’ playmaking and defensive tenacity. Whoever controls this matchup will have a significant impact on the game. Can McClain break free and ignite the Tigers’ offense, or will Jacobs shut him down and orchestrate the Jaguars’ attack?
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Kenny Hunter (TSU) vs. Damariee Jones (SU): This forward battle in the paint will be a physical affair. Both players are key rebounders and provide crucial scoring inside. Whoever wins the battle on the boards will give their team a significant advantage.
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The Bench Factor: Which team’s reserves will step up and provide a spark? In a game that’s likely to be close, bench production could be the difference between victory and defeat.
By the Numbers: Statistical Breakdown
Let’s crunch the numbers and see what they tell us:
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Scoring Offense:
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Southern: 76.6 points per game (108th nationally)
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Texas Southern: 72.9 points per game (220th nationally)
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Scoring Defense:
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Southern: 69.4 points allowed per game (105th nationally)
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Texas Southern: 74.8 points allowed per game (267th nationally)
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Rebounding:
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Southern: 35 rebounds per game (Leads SWAC)
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Texas Southern: (Unavailable – but this is an area they need to improve)
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Key Statistical Takeaways: Southern has a more efficient offense and a stingier defense. Texas Southern needs to find ways to generate more offense and improve their rebounding if they want to compete.
Injury Report: Any Cause for Concern?
As of February 14, 2025, there are no significant injuries to report for either team. Both squads are at full strength and ready to battle.
Why I’m Hammering the OVER 142: Total Points Prediction
The over/under for this game is set at 142 points. Now, let’s get to the heart of the matter: why am I confidently predicting that this game will go OVER that number? It all boils down to a combination of factors:
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Southern’s Explosive Home Offense: As mentioned earlier, the Jaguars average a whopping 90 points per game at home. They love to push the pace and get the crowd involved.
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Texas Southern’s Need to Score: The Tigers can’t win this game playing a slow, defensive-minded style. They need to score points to keep pace with the Jaguars.
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Recent Trends: Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in higher-scoring games lately.
To further solidify my pick, let’s consult the experts:
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Statistical Model: Based on season averages, Southern (76.6) + Texas Southern (72.9) = 149.5
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Home/Away Adjustment Model: Factoring Southern’s home scoring boost, Southern (80) + Texas Southern (73) = 153
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KenPom Model: Southern (75) + Texas Southern (69) = 144
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ESPN BPI Model: Southern (74) + Texas Southern (68) = 142
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BartTorvik Model: Southern (77) + Texas Southern (70) = 147
As you can see, most of these models project the total score to be above 142 points.
Expert Prediction and Final Thoughts
Putting it all together, here’s my final verdict:
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Game Winner: I’m leaning towards the Southern Jaguars to win this game, given their home-court advantage, superior defense, and slightly more potent offense. However, I expect the Texas Southern Tigers to put up a strong fight.
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Predicted Score: Southern Jaguars 77, Texas Southern Tigers 72
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Pick: OVER 142 Total Points
Why? Because I believe Southern’s home-court advantage and offensive firepower will lead to a high-scoring affair.
This SWAC showdown promises to be an exciting contest. Get ready for high-flying action, intense matchups, and a battle for conference supremacy!
PICK: over 142 total points LOSE
