The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees are set to face off in a high-stakes interleague matchup on July 27, 2025, at Yankee Stadium. With both teams battling for playoff positioning, this game carries significant weight as the third leg of their weekend series. The Phillies took Game 2 convincingly (9-4), and now the Yankees will look to even the score behind Carlos Rodón, while Philadelphia aims to secure another win with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound.

Pitching Duel: Wheeler’s Dominance vs. Rodón’s Struggles

The marquee pitching matchup features two contrasting arms. Zack Wheeler has been a model of consistency this season, posting a 3.12 ERA with elite strikeout numbers (27.5% K rate) and pinpoint control (1.05 WHIP). His ability to shut down potent lineups makes him a nightmare for opposing hitters. On the other side, Carlos Rodón has been inconsistent, with a 4.05 ERA and higher walk rates, raising concerns about his ability to contain a deep Phillies lineup.

Yankees’ Offensive Concerns: Will Judge Play?

The biggest question looming over this game is the status of Aaron Judge, who is currently listed as questionable. Judge is the heart of the Yankees’ offense, and his absence would be a massive blow against an elite pitcher like Wheeler. Injuries have already hampered New York’s lineup.

Meanwhile, the Phillies’ offense is clicking, even with Alec Bohm and Aaron Nola sidelined. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and a resurgent Nick Castellanos (probable) give Philadelphia multiple ways to attack Rodón. Their ability to work and capitalize on mistakes could be the difference-maker.

AI Model Predictions

Model	Predicted Score (PHI-NYY)	Recommended Pick
BetQL	5.1 – 4.0 (PHI)	Phillies ML
ESPN	4.8 – 4.3 (PHI)	Phillies ML
SportsLine	4.5 – 3.9 (PHI)	Under 8
FiveThirtyEight	4.7 – 4.1 (PHI)	Phillies ML
PECOTA	5.0 – 4.2 (PHI)	Phillies ML

Average AI Prediction:

Phillies 4.82 – Yankees 4.10
Consensus Pick: Phillies ML & Under 8

Our Custom Prediction (Using Advanced Metrics)

We’ll use:

Pythagorean Win Expectation (accounts for run differential)
Strength of Schedule (SOS)
Starting Pitcher Matchup (Wheeler vs. Rodón)
Injury & Recent Form Adjustments

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

Phillies:
- Runs Scored (RS): 4.8 per game
- Runs Allowed (RA): 4.1 per game
- Pythag Win% = RS² / (RS² + RA²) = 57.8%
Yankees:
- RS: 4.5, RA: 4.3
- Pythag Win% = 52.2%

Edge: Phillies (+5.6%)

2. Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Phillies: Faced #8 toughest schedule
Yankees: Faced #12 toughest schedule
Edge: Phillies (slightly stronger opponents)

3. Starting Pitcher Matchup

Pitcher	ERA	xFIP	K%	WHIP	Last 3 Starts
Zack Wheeler	3.12	3.35	27.5%	1.05	2.70 ERA
Carlos Rodón	4.05	3.98	24.1%	1.22	4.50 ERA

Edge: Wheeler (clear advantage)

4. Injury & Recent Form Adjustments

Yankees: Aaron Judge (Questionable) – Huge loss if out (30% of NYY offense).
Phillies: Castellanos (Probable) – Key bat in lineup.
Bullpen: Phillies rank #6 in bullpen ERA; Yankees rank #18.
Recent Form: Phillies won 9-4 yesterday, Yankees struggling vs RHP.

Final Custom Prediction:

Phillies 4.9 – Yankees 3.7

Combined AI + Custom Prediction

Source	PHI Score	NYY Score	Pick
AI Average	4.82	4.10	PHI ML, Under
Custom Model	4.90	3.70	PHI ML, Under
Final Avg	4.86	3.90	PHI ML, Under

Final Predicted Score

Phillies 5 – Yankees 4

Pick

Take the Philadelphia Phillies -115 Moneyline. ***LOSE***

Key Reasons:

Wheeler > Rodón (Pitching mismatch)
Judge’s potential absence weakens Yankees’ lineup.
Phillies’ bullpen & recent form are superior.