As the Seattle Mariners travel to Rogers Centre to face the Toronto Blue Jays today, we’re set for an intriguing pitching matchup between two young arms showing promise early in the 2025 campaign. The Blue Jays enter as slight home favorites (-116) against the Mariners (-103), with the total set at 8 runs. Let’s break down this matchup through a comprehensive analysis of both teams.
Starting Pitcher Analysis
Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners)
Bryan Woo has begun the 2025 season in impressive fashion, posting a 2-0 record with a stellar 2.84 ERA across his first three starts. The 25-year-old right-hander has pitched 19.0 innings while recording 18 strikeouts against just 2 walks, demonstrating excellent command early in the season. His ability to limit free passes (only 2 walks in 19 innings) has been a key factor in his success.
Woo is building on a strong 2024 campaign where he went 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA over 22 starts, with underlying metrics (3.40 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, and 3.75 SIERA) suggesting his performance was largely sustainable. While his 2024 strikeout rate wasn’t elite (7.49 K/9), he’s showing signs of improvement in 2025 with a K/9 approaching 8.5 in his first three outings.
After a somewhat rocky spring training (4.96 ERA in 16.1 innings), Woo has found his rhythm when the games started counting. His ability to limit both walks and home runs has been particularly impressive, contributing to his early success.
Bowden Francis (Toronto Blue Jays)
Bowden Francis has made three starts for the Blue Jays in 2025, facing the Nationals, Mets, and Orioles. The 28-year-old right-hander emerged as a surprise contributor late in 2024, posting a remarkable 1.53 ERA with a 3.42 FIP across nine starts after transitioning from the bullpen.
Francis relies on exceptional command rather than overpowering stuff, utilizing a zone-pounding fastball that generated a 75.6% strike rate in his breakout stretch last season. Preseason projections anticipated Francis settling in as a reliable starter in 2025, with forecasts of a 3.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and solid strikeout production across a full season workload.
While Francis may lack the prospect pedigree of his counterpart, his precision approach and ability to limit walks (just 3.3% walk rate in his late 2024 stretch) make him an effective starter who keeps his team in games.
Team Injuries Impact
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries that could affect today’s game:
The Mariners are without key pitchers George Kirby, Matt Brash, and several other contributors, putting additional pressure on Woo to deliver quality innings. Victor Robles’ absence impacts their outfield depth as well.
The Blue Jays’ injury list is even more concerning, with major contributors Max Scherzer, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho all sidelined. Alek Manoah’s absence further strains their pitching depth, making Francis’s performance today all the more crucial.
Offensive Comparison
Limited 2025 data makes a complete offensive analysis challenging, but we can identify some trends from available information:
The Blue Jays offense was league-average in 2024 with an OPS+ of 100 and wRC+ of 101 (13th overall). While they ranked 23rd in runs scored, advanced metrics suggested they were more effective than traditional statistics indicated. Their excellent defense (ranked 1st in 2024) remains a strength that supports their pitching staff.
The Mariners’ offense struggled in 2024, ranking in the bottom third of MLB in several categories including runs scored (21st). They’ll need improved production at multiple positions to support Woo’s strong pitching if they hope to take this game.
Bullpen Analysis
Current bullpen performance is difficult to fully assess with the available data, but we can note that several teams are struggling with relief pitching early in 2025, with four National League teams posting bullpen ERAs over 4.807. The absence of key relievers for both teams (Ryan Burr, Erik Swanson for Toronto; Trevor Gott for Seattle) could be significant in late-game situations.
Prediction and Betting Recommendation
Based on the available data, this projects to be a low-scoring affair with both starting pitchers capable of delivering quality performances. Bryan Woo’s early-season form gives the Mariners a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup, though Francis’s command and efficiency shouldn’t be underestimated.
Predicted Score: Seattle Mariners 4, Toronto Blue Jays 3
Confidence Level: Medium
Recommended Bet: With both starters performing well early in 2025 and both teams missing key offensive pieces, the UNDER 8 runs represents the strongest value. Woo’s ability to limit walks and Francis’s strong command profile suggest a pitcher-friendly contest. The Mariners moneyline at -103 also offers decent value given Woo’s superior early-season performance.
Key Factors: Watch for how both pitchers handle the middle of the opposing lineup. Francis will need to navigate a Mariners offense that struggled in 2024 but should benefit from the absence of several Toronto offensive threats. Woo’s ability to maintain his excellent walk rate will be critical to his success, especially in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.
This pitching matchup between two emerging arms makes for an intriguing Friday night showdown in Toronto, with slight edges in both the starting pitching and injury situations favoring the visiting Mariners despite Toronto’s home field advantage.
