The stage is set for an exciting NCAA Men’s Basketball showdown between the Robert Morris Colonials and the Milwaukee Panthers. Fans are eager to see who will be on top in this Horizon League matchup. Milwaukee enters the game as a 7.5-point favorite, and with a total set at 150 points, the action is expected to be fast and furious.
Date: Sunday, January 19, 2025
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Arena: UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena, Milwaukee, WI
But how do you make sense of all the data? Should you lean toward the Robert Morris Colonials (+7.5), or is Milwaukee going to cover the spread easily? Let’s break down both teams’ current form, key statistics, notable injuries, and expert predictions to help you make an informed choice.
Robert Morris Colonials: Can They Compete on the Road?
The Robert Morris Colonials have had a solid season so far, sitting with a 12-7 record, including a 4-4 mark in the Horizon League. While not considered the favorites in this matchup, the Colonials have shown they can challenge even the most formidable teams. Let’s dive into their current form:
Recent Performance
- The Colonials come into this game with a solid offensive average of 74.8 points per game. They’ve been on an offensive roll, especially in their recent 89-67 win over Green Bay. However, it’s their defensive consistency that has caught the eye, allowing 71.8 points per game.
- Robert Morris has shown a knack for keeping games close, even against tougher competition. Their ability to fight until the final buzzer means they’ve been able to cover spreads in some tight contests.
Key Players to Watch
- Kam Woods is the team’s leader, averaging 14.5 points per game and contributing 4.4 assists per game. His ability to drive and create scoring opportunities for others is crucial to their offense.
- Alvaro Folgueiras has been a standout contributor, averaging 12.8 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, making him a key presence in the paint. His rebounding ability will be vital against Milwaukee’s big men.
- Amarion Dickerson is another strong player to watch, providing 12.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.
Notable Injuries
- As of now, the Colonials are relatively healthy. There are no major injuries that should significantly affect their performance. This allows them to put forth their best lineup in this pivotal match.
Milwaukee Panthers: Strong Favorites with a Stellar Home Record
The Milwaukee Panthers enter this game with a 13-6 record, including an impressive 6-2 mark in Horizon League play. Known for their offensive power and solid defense, the Panthers are always a tough team to beat, especially at home.
Recent Performance
- Milwaukee has been in great form recently, with a nine-game home win streak. Averaging 78.3 points per game, they boast one of the most efficient offenses in the Horizon League.
- Defensively, Milwaukee has allowed 70.4 points per game, which is respectable. However, their defense will be tested against a Robert Morris team that can score in bunches when they get hot.
Key Players to Watch
- Themus Fulks is the driving force for Milwaukee, leading the team with 15.4 points and 4.8 assists per game. His ability to score efficiently and distribute the ball makes him the most dangerous player on the floor for the Panthers.
- Jamichael Stillwell, averaging 13.2 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, is an absolute force in the paint and will be a key factor in their inside game. His size and strength will make it difficult for Robert Morris to contest inside shots.
- Kentrell Pullian, contributing 13 points and 6 rebounds per game, adds depth to the Panthers’ scoring, making them a threat from all areas of the court.
Notable Injuries
- Like Robert Morris, Milwaukee is also in good health, with no key injuries to report. This means they will field their strongest lineup as they look to extend their home winning streak.
Prediction: Why Robert Morris (+7.5) Can Cover the Spread
Looking at the statistics, recent form, and key players, the Robert Morris Colonials are poised to cover the +7.5 spread in this matchup. While Milwaukee is the favorite, several factors point to Robert Morris keeping the game closer than expected.
1. Robert Morris’ Recent Success Against Milwaukee
- Historically, Robert Morris has performed well against Milwaukee, often making games competitive and keeping them within reach. This history of close games makes it reasonable to expect the Colonials to cover the spread once again.
2. Robert Morris’ Ability to Keep Games Close
- While Milwaukee is the better team on paper, Robert Morris has a strong ability to stay in games, even when they aren’t favorites. Their offensive balance and defensive resilience allow them to make runs and stay competitive.
3. Key Matchup: Rebounding and Defense
- Alvaro Folgueiras and Amarion Dickerson can provide an edge in the paint, where Milwaukee’s big men can be vulnerable. If Robert Morris can limit second-chance opportunities for the Panthers and make things tough inside, they could keep the score lower and maintain control of the game’s pace.
4. Milwaukee’s Dependence on Their Star Players
- While Themus Fulks and Jamichael Stillwell are fantastic players, they can’t win the game on their own. If Robert Morris can slow down the Panthers’ star players and neutralize their offensive efficiency, they have a solid chance of covering the spread.
Predicted Scores Based on NCAA BB Prediction Models
We used five successful NCAA Basketball prediction models to analyze the game. Here’s how the predictions shape up for both teams:
- KenPom: Milwaukee 75, Robert Morris 69
- Bart Torvik: Milwaukee 74, Robert Morris 70
- FiveThirtyEight: Milwaukee 76, Robert Morris 71
- TeamRankings: Milwaukee 77, Robert Morris 71
- Sagarin Ratings: Milwaukee 74, Robert Morris 70
These models consistently project Milwaukee to win, but Robert Morris is expected to keep the game close, with final scores around a 4-6 point margin. This reinforces the idea that Robert Morris will cover the +7.5 spread.
Conclusion: Robert Morris (+7.5) for the Win
When all factors are considered—recent form, key player performances, historical trends, and prediction model outputs—Robert Morris has what it takes to cover the spread against Milwaukee. The Colonials may not win outright, but they have a proven track record of staying competitive, especially in close games like this one.
For fans looking for a tight game, expect Robert Morris to fight until the final buzzer. With a solid mix of offense, defense, and key performances from their stars, they should make it difficult for Milwaukee to cover the 7.5-point spread.
Don’t miss this exciting matchup, and stay tuned for a thrilling game!
PICK: Robert Morris +7.5 WIN
