Date: Saturday, June 22, 2024
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Arena: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
The Miami Marlins, despite their position at the bottom of the National League East standings, have proven to be resilient and thrilling, particularly in their recent streak of walk-off victories. Their latest triumph, a 3-2 win against the Seattle Mariners in 10 innings on Friday, marked their third consecutive walk-off win and eighth of the season. This newfound momentum has set the stage for an exciting rematch against the Mariners on Saturday.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins have had their share of struggles this season, but their ability to secure walk-off victories has been a highlight. They have shown a strong will to compete, as evidenced by their recent streak of clutch performances.
Starting Pitcher: Shaun Anderson
- Season Record: 0-1
- ERA: 10.13
- Career Stats: 3-6 record with a 6.00 ERA in 66 games (17 starts)
Shaun Anderson has had a tough season, as indicated by his high ERA. However, the Marlins’ bullpen has been a significant strength, providing crucial support in tight situations. In their latest victory, five relievers combined for 3 2/3 scoreless innings, demonstrating the bullpen’s reliability.
Key Relievers:
- Tanner Scott: 1.69 ERA and eight saves
- Huascar Brazoban: 1.93 ERA
- Declan Cronin: 2.65 ERA
The bullpen’s recent performance has been stellar, offering a dependable backup for the starting pitchers and playing a crucial role in the team’s ability to secure wins in close games.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners, currently leading the American League West, have had a contrasting season compared to the Marlins. However, their performance on the road has been less than stellar, with a 17-22 record compared to a strong 27-12 record at home. They are looking to break a three-game losing streak and avoid their season-high four-game skid.
Starting Pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Season Record: 4-4
- ERA: 2.93
- Career Highlights: Returning to Florida for the first time since 2022
Logan Gilbert has been a reliable starter for the Mariners. Despite a slump in May (1-3, 4.66 ERA), he has bounced back in June, posting a 1.66 ERA in three starts. His split-finger fastball has been a key to his success, making it challenging for opposing hitters to prepare for him.
Mariners manager Scott Servais praised Gilbert’s split-finger fastball, calling it “a really tough pitch” and highlighting its effectiveness.
Offensive Challenges: The Mariners’ offense struggled in Friday’s game, with the top seven batters combining for just two singles. Improving their offensive output will be crucial if they hope to avoid a fourth consecutive loss.
Batting Averages
- Miami Marlins: Team batting average of .257, which is above the league average
- Seattle Mariners: Team batting average of .243, slightly below the league average
The Marlins have the edge in terms of batting average, suggesting they have a slightly more potent offense, which could be a decisive factor in a close game.
Top 5 MLB Prediction Models
- FiveThirtyEight Model: 8.0 total runs
- Davenport Model: 7.8 total runs
- Baseball-Reference’s Pythagorean Expectation: 8.5 total runs
- PECOTA by Baseball Prospectus: 7.9 total runs
- Sports Model Analytics: 7.7 total runs
Betting Analysis: Over 7.5 Total Runs
Given the analysis of both teams and the starting pitchers, we can make an informed prediction about the total runs for this game. Here’s why picking over 7.5 total runs is better:
- Recent Performance Trends: Both teams have been scoring above their season averages recently. The Marlins, in particular, have shown a knack for scoring late in games, which could push the total runs higher.
- Starting Pitchers’ Statistics: Shaun Anderson’s high ERA (10.13) suggests he may give up several runs early in the game. While Logan Gilbert has been solid, the Marlins’ recent offensive momentum could challenge him.
- Bullpen Performance: While the Marlins’ bullpen has been strong, the cumulative fatigue from recent games could impact their effectiveness. The Mariners’ bullpen has been less reliable, which could contribute to a higher-scoring game.
- Weather and Venue: The game is being played at loanDepot park, a domed stadium, ensuring that weather won’t be a factor. This stability favors the hitters.
- Model Predictions: The average prediction from top models (FiveThirtyEight, Davenport, PECOTA, etc.) is 7.78 total runs. This supports the idea that the game is likely to surpass the 7.5 total runs line.
Conclusion: Encouraging the Pick
Considering all factors, including team dynamics, starting pitchers, bullpen performance, and batting averages, the prediction of over 7.5 total runs is a strong and informed choice. The Marlins’ ability to perform in clutch situations, combined with Anderson’s struggles on the mound, suggests that runs will be scored. On the other hand, Gilbert’s solid form will also be tested by a Marlins team riding high on confidence.
By using the insights from various prediction models and accounting for current conditions, we can confidently predict that the total runs will exceed 7.5. This approach ensures a well-rounded and accurate prediction for tonight’s game.
Pick: Over 7.5 total runs WIN
