The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are set to clash in an intriguing midweek matchup at T-Mobile Park, with both teams looking to gain momentum as the 2025 MLB season approaches the midway point. The Mariners, fresh off a dominant 8-0 shutout victory over the Red Sox on Tuesday, will aim to secure another win at home, while Boston seeks redemption after a brutal offensive collapse.

Pitching Duel: Crochet vs. Castillo

Wednesday’s game features a compelling pitching matchup between Garrett Crochet and Luis Castillo, two arms capable of controlling the game. Crochet has been a bright spot for Boston, posting a 3.45 ERA with elite strikeout numbers (10.8 K/9), but he’ll face a Mariners lineup that just exploded for eight runs. On the other side, Castillo brings his usual dominance, sporting a 3.12 ERA and excellent command, making this a battle of power versus precision.

Injury Woes Impacting Both Sides

The Red Sox continue to navigate a brutal injury wave, with key bats like Triston Casas, Alex Bregman, and Wilyer Abreu sidelined. Their absence has left Boston’s lineup thinner than usual, contributing to recent offensive struggles. Meanwhile, Seattle is missing Bryce Miller (a key bullpen arm) and outfielder Luke Raley, but their core lineup remains intact.

Playoff Implications in June?

With both teams hovering around .500, every win matters in the crowded AL Wild Card race. The Mariners (37-35) sit second in the AL West, while the Red Sox (38-37) are fourth in the AL East but still within striking distance. A series win here could provide a crucial confidence boost for either club as they push toward the All-Star break.

Trends to Watch

Seattle’s Momentum: After Tuesday’s blowout, can they keep rolling?
Boston’s Struggles on the Road: The Sox have been inconsistent away from Fenway.
Low-Scoring Affair? Both pitchers are capable of stifling offenses, and the total sits at just 6.5 runs.

This game could come down to which team capitalizes on limited opportunities—will the Mariners ride their home crowd to another win, or will the Red Sox bounce back behind Crochet’s arm? Stay tuned for a tightly contested battle under the Seattle lights.

AI Model Consensus (Average Prediction)

Model	Predicted Winner	Projected Score (BOS-SEA)	Total Runs
BetQL	SEA	4-3	7
ESPN	SEA (55% win prob)	5-4	9
SportsLine	BOS (slight edge)	5-4	9
Pinnacle	SEA (58% implied)	4-3	7
SharpSide	SEA (value on ML)	3-2	5
Average	SEA (53% implied)	4.2 – 3.2	7.4

AI Consensus Lean: Mariners ML (+107) & Under 6.5 (slight edge).

Our Model (Pythagorean + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

Pythagorean Expectation (Win%)

Red Sox: 38-37 (Run Diff: +15) → Expected W% = 0.526
Mariners: 37-35 (Run Diff: +12) → Expected W% = 0.518

Strength of Schedule (Last 20 Games)

BOS: 9-11 (vs. #12 SOS)
SEA: 10-10 (vs. #8 SOS) → Slightly tougher opponents.

Pitching Matchup (Crochet vs. Castillo)

Stat	Garrett Crochet (BOS)	Luis Castillo (SEA)
ERA	3.45	3.12
xFIP	3.60	3.30
K/9	10.8	9.5
WHIP	1.15	1.08
Last 3 GS	2.70 ERA	2.50 ERA

Edge: Castillo slightly better, but Crochet has been strong lately.

Key Injuries & Trends

Red Sox: Missing Triston Casas, Alex Bregman, Wilyer Abreu (big offensive losses).
Mariners: Missing Bryce Miller (bullpen arm), but lineup mostly intact.
Trend: Mariners just shut out Boston 8-0 (momentum factor).

Our Projection

Predicted Score: Mariners 4, Red Sox 3 (Pythagorean + adjustments).
Total Runs: 6.3 (leaning Under 6.5).

Predicted Score

AI Consensus Avg. Score: 4.2 – 3.2 (SEA, Under 7.4)
Our Model Score: 4-3
Betting Play:
- Best Pick: Mariners ML (+107) (slight value)

Reasoning:

Castillo is at home with a better bullpen.
Boston’s offense was weakened by injuries.
Low-scoring trend in recent Mariners games.

Pick

Take the Seattle Mariners +107 Moneyline