The Seattle Mariners look to continue their winning streak as they take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Both teams have faced injury challenges, but the Mariners are riding high after recent victories. Can Seattle extend their winning streak or will the Red Sox bounce back on home turf?
The Red Sox are favored at home, but both teams are dealing with significant injuries. Here’s how they might affect the AI picks:
- BetQL: Red Sox (-135) – Adjusted slightly down to Red Sox -130 due to the Mariners’ recent wins and the Red Sox’ pitching injuries.
- ESPN: Red Sox (58% win probability) – No adjustment needed.
- SportsLine: Red Sox (-1.5) – Adjusted to Red Sox -1.25 due to the Red Sox’ pitching injuries.
- Dimers Bettorverse: Red Sox (-125) – No adjustment needed.
- NumberFire (high win %): Red Sox (56% win probability) – Adjusted slightly down to Red Sox 54% due to the Red Sox’ pitching injuries.
Average Adjusted Pick: Red Sox (-127) with a 55% win probability.
Pythagorean Theorem:
Both teams are slightly above their win totals based on runs scored and allowed, suggesting a potential close game, aligning somewhat with the Over/Under line. Injuries and pitching matchups might play a bigger role here.
Injury Report and Recent Trends:
- Mariners: Jorge Polanco’s return is a boost, but they are still missing key players. Their recent wins have shown positive momentum.
- Red Sox: They are dealing with multiple pitching injuries, but their offense has shown improvement.
Matchup Analysis:
- Mariners: Logan Gilbert is a solid starter, and their offense has been productive.
- Red Sox: Nick Pivetta needs to continue his strong pitching to contain the Mariners’ offense.
Considering All Factors:
- The Mariners’ offense is potent, and Logan Gilbert provides a solid pitching option.
- The Red Sox’ offense has shown improvement, but their pitching depth is tested.
Seattle Mariners 4 – Boston Red Sox 3
Reasoning:
- The Mariners’ offense might be too much for the Red Sox’ pitching staff.
- The Red Sox’ offense could put up a fight, but the Mariners’ pitching and recent momentum might give them the edge.
- The total score (Over/Under 8.5) leans slightly towards Over due to both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Mariners Win Close Rivalry Matchup
The AI models favor the Red Sox (average: Red Sox -127, 55% win probability), but our analysis leans slightly towards the Mariners. The Mariners’ offense and pitching depth give them a slight edge, but the Red Sox could make it a close game. The total score is likely to be around the Over/Under line.
Pick: Take the Seattle Mariners +135 Moneyline. ***LOSE***
