The Los Angeles Dodgers (88-61) will take on the Miami Marlins (55-95) on Tuesday, September 17th at loanDepot park in Miami. The Dodgers enter the game as heavy -196 moneyline favorites, while the Marlins are +162 underdogs. The run line is set at 1.5, with the Dodgers at -122 and the Marlins at +102. The over/under for total runs scored is 9.5.
Top MLB Prediction Models
To analyze this matchup, let’s look at the top 5 MLB prediction models, along with the BetQL and SportsLine models:
- FiveThirtyEight Elo Ratings
- ZiPS Projection System
- Steamer Projection System
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA
- Fangraphs Depth Charts
We’ll also include the BetQL and SportsLine models to get a well-rounded view of the game.
Dodgers vs. Marlins Prediction
Using the Pythagorean expectation formula and strength of schedule, along with the predictions from the top models, we can estimate the likely outcome of this game.The Dodgers have a Pythagorean expectation of 91-58, while the Marlins are at 55-95. The Dodgers have a significantly easier schedule, with a strength of schedule of 0.486 compared to 0.514 for the Marlins.
Factoring in key injuries, the Dodgers are missing Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin, while the Marlins are without Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez, and Eury Perez. The Dodgers have been the better team overall, going 88-61 compared to the Marlins’ 55-95 record.Averaging the predictions from the top models, BetQL, and SportsLine:
- Dodgers score: 5.0
- Marlins score: 4.0
This aligns with the Dodgers’ -196 moneyline odds and 1.5 run line at -122. The over/under of 9.5 total runs seems reasonable given the projected scores.
Best Bet
Based on the analysis, the best bet for this game is the Dodgers moneyline at -196. The Dodgers are the superior team, have a better Pythagorean expectation, and an easier strength of schedule. While the Marlins are at home, the Dodgers’ pitching depth and offensive firepower should be enough to secure the win.
The run line of Dodgers -1.5 at -122 is also a solid option, as the models project the Dodgers to win comfortably. However, the moneyline offers better value.
The over/under of 9.5 total runs is a toss-up, as the projected scores of 5-4 would result in 9 runs. If you’re feeling bold, taking the over could pay off, but the safer bet is the Dodgers moneyline.
PICK: Dodgers Moneyline -192 – LOSE
