The Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox continue their three-game series at Fenway Park on June 3, 2025, in what promises to be another thrilling AL clash. After last night’s 7-6 Angels victory, both teams will look to capitalize on shaky pitching and an injury-depleted bullpen in what could turn into another offensive slugfest.

Pitching Matchup: Can Either Starter Slow Down the Bats?

The Angels send left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to the mound, hoping he can provide stability after a mixed season. Kikuchi (4.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) has been vulnerable against right-handed power hitters, which doesn’t bode well against a Red Sox lineup that thrives at home. Meanwhile, Boston counters with Brayan Bello (3.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), who has been solid but not dominant. Bello’s tendency to allow hard contact could spell trouble against an Angels team that just put up seven runs the night before.

Injury Woes: Which Team is More Depleted?

Both clubs are missing key contributors, further complicating their chances. The Angels remain without Anthony Rendon (offensive void) and multiple bullpen arms, while the Red Sox are missing Triston Casas (power bat) and key pitchers like Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. With both teams relying on patchwork relief pitching, late-inning fireworks could be in store.

Recent Form & Trends

The Angels (27-32) have been inconsistent but showed resilience in last night’s comeback win. The Red Sox (29-33), meanwhile, have struggled to find consistency, going 4-6 in their last 10. However, Fenway Park has been a hitter’s paradise in this matchup—five of the last seven meetings between these teams have seen double-digit runs, making the over an intriguing trend to watch.

What to Watch For

Bullpen Fatigue: Both teams used multiple relievers in last night’s high-scoring affair. Will the Angels’ or Red Sox’s thin bullpen crack first?
Power vs. Pitching: The Red Sox rank top 10 in home OPS, while the Angels have been streaky but dangerous. Can Kikuchi keep the ball in the park?
Fenway Factor: The Green Monster often turns fly balls into extra-base hits. Will we see another high-scoring game?

With both teams fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, expect an aggressive, high-energy game at Fenway. Will the Angels secure back-to-back wins, or will the Red Sox bounce back at home? Stay tuned for our full breakdown and betting prediction!

MLB AI Betting Models’ Predictions

Red Sox Win Probability: ~55%
Projected Total Runs: ~9.5 (slightly Over)
Average Score Prediction: Red Sox 5.2 – Angels 4.4

Our Custom AI Prediction (Injury-Adjusted & Schedule-Strength Weighted)

Key Factors:

Pythagorean Expectation:

Angels: 27-32 (Expected W-L ≈ 26-33, slightly underperforming)
Red Sox: 29-33 (Expected W-L ≈ 28-34, slightly overperforming)
Slight edge to Red Sox at home.

Strength of Schedule (Last 15 Games):

Angels: Faced #12 toughest schedule (Avg. Opponent Win% = .520)
Red Sox: Faced #8 toughest schedule (Avg. Opponent Win% = .535)
Red Sox have faced slightly tougher opponents recently.

Pitching Matchup:

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 4.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP (struggles vs. RHB)
Brayan Bello (BOS): 3.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (better at home)
Edge to Bello, but both pitchers allow runs.

Injuries & Lineup Impact:

Angels Missing: Anthony Rendon (key bat), Ben Joyce (bullpen arm)
Red Sox Missing: Triston Casas (power bat), Tanner Houck (SP), Kutter Crawford (SP)
Bullpens are both weakened, favoring Over.

Recent Trends:

Angels: 5-5 last 10, but won yesterday (7-6).
Red Sox: 4-6 last 10, bullpen struggles.
Last 5 H2H: Avg. 10.4 runs/game (Over 9 hits in 4/5).

Our Adjusted Prediction:

Red Sox 5.4 – Angels 4.8 (Projected Total: 10.2 runs)
Lean: Over 9 (-110) (High bullpen usage yesterday + weak SPs)
Moneyline: Slight value on Red Sox (-133), but not strong enough.

Final Consensus Pick

Model	Prediction
AI Models Avg	Red Sox 5.2 – Angels 4.4
Our Model	Red Sox 5.4 – Angels 4.8
Combined Pick	Red Sox 5.3 – Angels 4.6

Betting Recommendation:

Over 9 (-110) (7 of last 10 H2H went Over, weak bullpens)
Secondary Lean: Red Sox ML (-133) (small edge, but Over is stronger)

Pick

Take over 9 total runs.