The upcoming matchup between the Lamar Cardinals and the Incarnate Word Cardinals on February 24, 2025, at the Alice P. McDermott Convocation Center in San Antonio, Texas, promises to be a compelling contest with significant implications for the Southland Conference standings.
Team Overview
Lamar enters the game with an 18-10 overall record, including a 13-4 mark in conference play, positioning them second in the Southland Conference, three games behind McNeese. Incarnate Word stands at 14-14 overall and 7-10 in the conference, tying them for eighth place.
Statistical Comparison
Both teams exhibit identical offensive efficiency, each averaging 99.2 points per 100 possessions, ranking 97th in college basketball. Defensively, Lamar holds a slight edge, allowing 92.4 points per 100 possessions compared to Incarnate Word’s 92.9 points (170th nationally).
In terms of shooting, Incarnate Word boasts a higher effective field goal percentage at 46.96%, surpassing Lamar’s 43.46%. Turnover rates favor Incarnate Word as well, with 11.22 turnovers per game against Lamar’s 12.63. Rebounding statistics show Lamar ahead, averaging 34.7 rebounds per game (11.2 offensive, 23.5 defensive) compared to Incarnate Word’s 32.1 rebounds (10.4 offensive, 21.8 defensive).
Recent Performance
Lamar is riding a five-game winning streak, including a recent 66-58 victory over Houston Christian, where guard Ja’Sean Jackson contributed 17 points. Incarnate Word has experienced mixed results, posting a 7-3 record over their last ten games, averaging 58.7 points per game while conceding 57.6 points.
Player Analysis
Lamar’s offensive leader, junior guard Alexis Marmolejos, averages 15.0 points per game with a 40.9% field goal percentage and a 75.2% free throw percentage. Senior center Adam Hamilton is pivotal in the paint, contributing 6.9 rebounds per game. Senior guard Ja’Sean Jackson facilitates the offense, leading the team with 3.9 assists per game.
For Incarnate Word, senior guard Davion Bailey stands out as the top scorer, averaging 16.1 points per game with a 41.4% field goal percentage and a 75.4% free throw percentage. Junior guard J. Anderson orchestrates the offense, leading with 4.9 assists per game.
Coaching Analysis
Lamar’s head coach, Alvin Brooks, brings a wealth of experience and a defensive-minded approach, evident in the team’s solid defensive metrics. His ability to make in-game adjustments has been instrumental in close contests. Incarnate Word’s head coach, Shane Heirman, emphasizes a perimeter-oriented offense, leveraging his team’s three-point shooting capabilities. However, defensive inconsistencies have posed challenges this season.
Home Court Advantage
Playing at the Alice P. McDermott Convocation Center provides Incarnate Word with a familiar environment and supportive crowd, factors that can influence game momentum. Historically, home court advantage in college basketball can contribute to a slight edge, but Lamar’s experience and recent form may mitigate this benefit.
Tempo
Both teams prefer a moderate pace, balancing transition opportunities with structured half-court sets. This tempo suggests a game that may not reach high scoring totals, aligning with their defensive strengths.
Three-Point Shooting
Incarnate Word relies heavily on three-point attempts, with a significant portion of their offense generated from beyond the arc. Their efficiency in this area can be a game-changer. Lamar’s perimeter defense will need to be vigilant to contest these shots effectively.
Strength of Schedule
Lamar has faced a slightly tougher schedule, with notable non-conference opponents that have tested their resilience. Incarnate Word’s schedule has been less demanding, which may not have fully prepared them for high-caliber competition.
Advanced Metrics
According to KenPom ratings, Lamar ranks higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency compared to Incarnate Word. Sagarin Ratings and Haslametrics also favor Lamar, indicating a more balanced and robust performance throughout the season.
Historical Matchups
In recent seasons, Lamar has maintained an upper hand in head-to-head matchups against Incarnate Word, often leveraging their defensive prowess to stifle Incarnate Word’s perimeter shooting.
Conference Implications
This game holds significant weight for both teams. A win for Lamar would solidify their position in the conference standings, potentially closing the gap with McNeese. For Incarnate Word, an upset victory could enhance their seeding prospects for the conference tournament.
Betting Analysis
The betting lines position Lamar as a slight road favorite with a moneyline of -125, while Incarnate Word stands at +105. The spread is set at 1.5 points, and the total over/under is 134.5 points.
Predicted Outcome
Considering both teams’ statistical profiles, recent performances, and advanced metrics, the game is projected to be closely contested. However, Lamar’s superior defense and recent momentum provide them with a slight advantage.
Predicted Final Score: Lamar 68, Incarnate Word 64
Confidence Level: Medium
Recommended Bet: Taking Lamar to cover the 1.5-point spread is advisable, given their defensive edge and winning streak. The total points projection suggests betting the under on 134.5, considering both teams’ defensive capabilities and moderate tempo.
Player Props and Key Factors
- Alexis Marmolejos (Lamar): Expect him to exceed his average, potentially scoring over 15.0 points, given Incarnate Word’s defensive vulnerabilities.
- Davion Bailey (Incarnate Word): As the team’s leading scorer, his performance will be critical. If he struggles against Lamar’s defense, Incarnate Word could have trouble keeping up offensively. A prop bet on his points total under 16.5 could offer value.
- Ja’Sean Jackson (Lamar): His playmaking ability (3.9 assists per game) makes an over bet on his assists (potentially set around 4.5) an intriguing option, especially if Lamar finds success in transition.
Potential Impact of Key Mismatches
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Lamar’s Defense vs. Incarnate Word’s Shooting: Lamar has a stronger defensive rating, which could make it difficult for Incarnate Word to generate open three-point shots. If Incarnate Word can’t maintain their perimeter efficiency, Lamar’s inside scoring and rebounding advantage will dictate the pace.
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Rebounding Edge for Lamar: With a higher total rebounding rate (34.7 RPG vs. 32.1 RPG), Lamar could dominate second-chance opportunities, which could be the difference in a close game.
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Turnovers: Incarnate Word has been slightly better at taking care of the ball (11.2 TOs per game vs. Lamar’s 12.6), but Lamar’s ability to force turnovers and convert in transition could swing momentum.
Final Thoughts
This game presents a fascinating contrast in styles—Lamar’s defensive-minded, rebounding-heavy approach against Incarnate Word’s perimeter shooting reliance. While Incarnate Word will enjoy home-court advantage, Lamar’s recent form, superior defensive play, and ability to control the glass make them the more reliable pick.
- Best Bet: Lamar -1.5 spread
- Alternative Bet: Under 134.5 total points
- Player Prop to Consider: Ja’Sean Jackson over 4.5 assists
With Lamar having the edge in most key areas, expect them to come away with a close but convincing win as they push for a stronger position in the Southland Conference.
