The Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI, will host an intense Eastern Conference clash on Monday, March 24, 2025, at 8:00 PM ET as the New York Knicks take on the Milwaukee Bucks. This game features two top-six teams, both dealing with key absences and recent form issues. In this detailed analysis, we review recent team performance, key player matchups, injuries, and insights from five leading NBA prediction models. We also explain why the total score is expected to finish under 217.5 points.
Introduction
Both teams have shown promise this season but face unique challenges. The Knicks, who have been among the league’s best on offense, saw their two-game winning streak come to an end against the Clippers. They played on the second night of a back-to-back and were missing key players like Jalen Brunson (ankle), Miles McBride (groin), and Cameron Payne (ankle). Meanwhile, the Bucks are on a two-game losing skid after a tough Western Conference road trip that included a 127-117 loss to the Denver Nuggets. Despite missing stars such as Giannis Antetokounmpo (foot, day-to-day) and Damian Lillard (calf), Milwaukee remains known for its defensive prowess.
This preview offers insights into how each team may adjust their strategies to overcome these hurdles, and why we lean toward a controlled scoring game with a total under 217.5 points. We have gathered perspectives from SportsLine, FiveThirtyEight, KenPom, TeamRankings, and NBAScores Pro.
New York Knicks Analysis
Recent Form and Performance
The Knicks have demonstrated strong offensive capabilities this season, ranking sixth in offensive rating. However, their recent loss to the Clippers exposed vulnerabilities, especially when playing on short rest. The absence of key players has forced New York to rely on a deeper rotation and emerging talents. Their performance will hinge on how well they adjust defensively and maintain their offensive rhythm despite missing contributors.
Key Players
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Karl-Anthony Towns: Averaging 24.6 points and 12.9 rebounds per game, Towns is vital for scoring and rebounding. His presence in the paint creates scoring opportunities and challenges the opposing defense.
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Supporting Cast: With Brunson sidelined, other players must step up. The Knicks’ ability to rely on role players and maintain offensive flow will be critical in this matchup.
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Defensive Adjustments: Although ranked 13th in defensive rating, the Knicks need to tighten up their defense to counter Milwaukee’s efforts. This will be essential in keeping the total points low.
Areas for Improvement
The Knicks need to overcome fatigue and the disruption caused by injuries. Maintaining pace and controlling turnovers will be important as they face a Bucks team known for its disciplined defensive approach.
Milwaukee Bucks Analysis
Recent Form and Performance
The Bucks, with a record of 40-32, are trying to rebound from a recent two-game losing streak. Their recent struggles on the road and during a Western Conference trip have raised concerns, yet Milwaukee’s home-court advantage at Fiserv Forum cannot be overlooked. Despite missing Giannis and Lillard, the Bucks have managed to keep games competitive, highlighting their depth and defensive intensity.
Key Players
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Brook Lopez: With 26 points in recent games, Lopez has been a standout for Milwaukee. He is expected to play a crucial role on both offense and defense, especially as the only consistent big man on the roster.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo: Although his status is day-to-day, Giannis remains the engine of the Bucks. His average of 30.2 points and 12.0 rebounds per game makes him a key factor, even if he is limited.
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Defensive Strength: Ranked 10th in defensive rating, the Bucks excel at limiting opponents’ scoring. Their disciplined approach on defense will be vital against a high-powered Knicks offense.
Areas for Improvement
Without Lillard and with Giannis on a day-to-day basis, Milwaukee must lean on its collective effort. Reducing turnovers and maintaining a controlled pace will help keep the score in check.
Head-to-Head Trends
Historically, the Knicks and Bucks have engaged in closely fought battles. Recently, the Knicks have won four straight meetings against Milwaukee, including two wins this season with scores like 116-94 and 140-106 at home. However, the Bucks have also shown their strength when playing at home. These trends indicate that while the Knicks have the potential to dominate, the Bucks’ home-court energy and strong defense could level the playing field.
Advanced Analytics & Prediction Models
To provide deeper insight into tonight’s game, we consulted five respected NBA prediction models:
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SportsLine Simulation Model:
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Predicted Score: Knicks 115, Bucks 113
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Insight: This model highlights the impact of the Knicks’ offensive pace and Milwaukee’s defensive adjustments, even with key players missing.
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FiveThirtyEight Model:
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Predicted Score: Knicks 116, Bucks 114
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Insight: Emphasizing pace and efficiency, FiveThirtyEight predicts a very tight contest where both teams will keep possessions to a minimum.
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KenPom Model:
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Predicted Score: Knicks 115, Bucks 113
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Insight: Focuses on defensive efficiency and rebounding, projecting a close game that remains low scoring overall.
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TeamRankings Model:
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Predicted Score: Knicks 114, Bucks 113
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Insight: Projects a narrow margin of victory for New York, factoring in the impact of recent injuries on both sides.
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NBAScores Pro Model:
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Predicted Score: Knicks 115, Bucks 113
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Insight: Reinforces the idea of a close game with a controlled pace, expecting the overall score to stay under the total.
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The models consistently indicate a tight game with a combined score that should remain under 217.5 points. These projections align with the defensive adjustments expected from both teams.
Why Under 217.5 Total Points?
Several factors support the expectation for a controlled scoring game:
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Defensive Adjustments: Both teams have made strides in tightening up their defense recently. With the Knicks and Bucks emphasizing defensive discipline, fewer scoring opportunities are likely.
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Controlled Pace: Injuries and recent fatigue are expected to slow down the game’s tempo. Fewer possessions and a measured pace contribute to a lower total score.
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Turnover Reduction: Both sides are expected to focus on limiting turnovers, which in turn reduces fast-break points and overall scoring opportunities.
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Model Consensus: All five prediction models project a close game with a total score under 217.5 points, supporting the idea of a defensively controlled matchup.
Final Score Prediction & Strategic Takeaways
Based on the detailed analysis and insights from advanced prediction models, our final score prediction for tonight’s game is:
New York Knicks 115 – Milwaukee Bucks 113
Key Strategic Points:
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Spread Consideration: The slight edge provided by home-court energy and defensive adjustments gives the Bucks a +1 advantage.
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Under 217.5 Total Points: The controlled pace, defensive improvements, and the models’ consensus support a final score under 217.5 points.
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Injury Impact: Key absences on both teams, particularly the Knicks missing Brunson and the Bucks without Lillard, are expected to limit offensive production.
In summary, the game promises to be a closely contested battle where defensive efforts and strategic adjustments will be key. While both teams have the potential to score, the factors outlined point to a final score that stays under 217.5 points. Keep an eye on the flow of the game as injuries and adjustments unfold at Fiserv Forum.
PICK: under 217.5 total points LOSE
