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Patrick Mahomes and the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs will start the postseason against the Jacksonville Jaguars at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday after earning a bye in the wildcard round.
The Chiefs won the AFC West title for the seventh straight season, the second longest winning streak in NFL history. Mahomes and his company will host a team of Jaguars who have rebounded from his 27-0 deficit to beat his Chargers 31-30 in Los Angeles in his AFC Wildcard Thriller. His 27-point comeback for the Jaguars was his third-largest in NFL postseason history.
Jacksonville entered the divisional playoff matchup on a six-game winning streak (including last week’s playoff win). The Jaguars are his first NFL team to win a playoff game in the same season with the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft since the Dallas Cowboys in 1991.
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Saturday’s meeting is the first-ever postseason game between Jacksonville and Kansas City. The three keys to divisional playoff competition are:
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Chiefs pass attack vs. Jacksonville defense
Mahomes threw for 331 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception as the Chiefs defeated Jacksonville 27–17 in Week 10.
Mahomes led the NFL in passing (5,250 yards) during the regular season. He was the only quarterback with over 5,000 yards. The Chiefs recorded his No. 1 total offense (413 yards per game) and best passing offense (297 yards per game) in the league this year.
The Jaguars defense ranked 28th for passes, allowing 238 yards per game. Jacksonville must be able to contain Kansas City’s versatile passing attack. Expect Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell to plan his package for the zone he defends the pass. The Jaguars goal is to put pressure on Mahomes at the defensive lineman while getting back into his coverage zone in the back end.
Tight end Travis Kelce, wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster and running back Jerick McKinnon are three of the best pass-catching threats on Kansas City’s offense. Kelce recorded his six catches for 81 yards and one touchdown when the two teams met in his November. McKinnon scored a touchdown in six straight games.
It’s worth noting that Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson served as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator from 2013 to 2015 under Andy Reid, but that didn’t stop Mahomes from officially starting Kansas City in 2018. This was before he became a QB.
Attack on Kansas City defense with Travis Etienne and Jaguars offense
Etienne rushed for 1,125 yards and averaged 5.1 yards per carry during the regular season. In last week’s playoff win, he generated his 109 rushing yards and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. It’s imperative that the Jaguars have a rushing offense against the Chiefs’ defense where he allowed 107 rushing yards per game during the regular season. If Jacksonville establishes a run, it opens up a play action path and also helps the team control the clock.
Etienne needs 20 or more carries as the Jaggs look to dominate the possession battle. The Jaguar running back had 11 carries for 45 yards in the regular season loss to Kansas City. The Chiefs defense has given up at least 125 yards rushing in two of his three losses.
Trevor Lawrence and offense need to play football without turnovers
Lawrence threw four interceptions and the Jags recorded a total of five turnovers in the first half before putting on a hard-fought second-half rally against the Chargers. The Jaguars can’t afford his five turnovers in Kansas City. Mahomes and company take advantage of the mistake.
The Chiefs’ defense forced 20 steals during the regular season. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve His Spagnolo prefers a one-on-one defense and the occasional blitz (in the regular season he is 24% per drop). The Chiefs typically rely on defensive tackle Chris Jones and his defensive ends Frank Clark, George Carraftis, Carlos Dunlap and Mike Dana to create pressure up front. The five men have 35.5 sacks this season.
Can the Chiefs go destructive and force Lawrence to make a false throw?
Lawrence had 288 passing yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions last week.
Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Tyler Dragon on Twitter @TylerDragon.
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