To analyze the upcoming NCAA football game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Kansas Jayhawks on November 9, 2024, we will consider various prediction models, team statistics, player injuries, and recent performance to derive an informed prediction.
Game Overview
- Matchup: Iowa State Cyclones (7-1) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (2-6)
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
- Moneyline: Iowa State -135, Kansas +113
- Spread: Iowa State favored by 2.5 points
- Total Points Over/Under: 51
Team Performance
Iowa State Cyclones
- Offensive Points per Game: 30.5 (Ranked 61st)
- Defensive Points Against per Game: 15.5 (Ranked 9th)
- Turnovers Forced: 17 (Ranked 13th nationally)
- Key Players:
- Rocco Becht (QB): 2,011 passing yards, 13 TDs, 6 INTs
- Carson Hansen (RB): 444 rushing yards, 7 TDs
- Jayden Higgins (WR): 703 receiving yards, 7 TDs
Kansas Jayhawks
- Offensive Points per Game: 30 (Ranked 64th)
- Defensive Points Against per Game: 24.6 (Ranked 53rd)
- Turnovers Forced: 14 (Ranked 34th nationally)
- Key Players:
- Jalon Daniels (QB): 1,521 passing yards, 11 TDs, 9 INTs
- Devin Neal (RB): 758 rushing yards, 8 TDs
Injury Report
Iowa State Cyclones
- Benjamin Brahmer (TW) – Out
- Daniel Jackson (WR) – Out
Kansas Jayhawks
- Quentin Skinner (WR) – Out
- Daniel Hishaw Jr. (RB) – Out
- Keaton Kubecka (WR) – Out
- Isreal Moses V (WR) – Out
- Jarred Sample (WR) – Out
- DeShawn Hanika (TE) – Out
Both teams are facing significant injuries that could impact their offensive capabilities. The Jayhawks are particularly affected with multiple key players out.
Model Predictions for Iowa State vs. Kansas
Based on the consensus from these models:
- Average score prediction: Iowa State wins by approximately 2 to 3 points, aligning closely with the spread of Iowa State favored by 2.5 points.
Strength of Schedule and Pythagorean Expectation
Using the Pythagorean theorem for football, we can estimate expected wins based on points scored and allowed:
For Iowa State:
For Kansas:
This analysis suggests that Iowa State has a significantly better performance expectation compared to Kansas.
Final Prediction
Taking into account the models’ predictions, team performance metrics, injuries, and overall strength of schedule:
- Final Score Prediction:
- Iowa State Cyclones: 27
- Kansas Jayhawks: 24
- Best Bets:
- Moneyline: Favor Iowa State at -135.
- Spread: Take Iowa State to cover the spread of -2.5.
- Total Points: Lean towards the under given both teams’ defensive capabilities.
In conclusion, while both teams have shown potential this season, the injuries on Kansas’s side and Iowa State’s overall stronger performance metrics lead to a predicted close victory for the Cyclones in this matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
