Date: Sunday, October 13, 2024
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Arena: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Football fans, buckle up! We’re in for a treat this Sunday as the Pittsburgh Steelers roll into Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders. This matchup promises to be a nail-biter, with both teams hungry for a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Let’s take a closer look at what’s in store for this Week 6 showdown.
The Steel Curtain Comes to Sin City
The Steelers arrive in Las Vegas with a 3-2 record, looking to bounce back from two consecutive losses. Despite their recent stumbles, Pittsburgh’s defense remains a force to be reckoned with. Led by the unstoppable T.J. Watt, who’s already racked up 6 sacks this season, the Steelers’ D is allowing just 14.6 points per game – second-best in the NFL.
On offense, the Steelers have been a bit of a mixed bag. Quarterback Russell Wilson has shown flashes of his old self, but consistency has been an issue. Running back Najee Harris is due for a breakout game, and this could be his chance against a Raiders defense that’s been generous to opposing rushers.
Raiders Seeking Redemption
The Raiders, sitting at 2-3, are at a crossroads in their season. After benching Gardner Minshew, all eyes will be on rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell as he makes his first start of the 2024 season. It’s a bold move by head coach Josh McDaniels, but one that could pay off if O’Connell can inject some life into a stagnant offense.
Defensively, the Raiders have struggled, particularly against the run. They’ll need a big game from defensive end Maxx Crosby if they hope to contain the Steelers’ ground attack and put pressure on Wilson.
Key Matchups to Watch
- T.J. Watt vs Raiders’ Offensive Line: Can the Raiders protect their rookie QB from the league’s premier pass rusher?
- Najee Harris vs Raiders’ Run Defense: Will this be the game Harris finally breaks loose?
- Aidan O’Connell vs Steelers’ Secondary: How will the rookie fare against a battle-tested Pittsburgh defense?
Why the Over 36.5 is the Smart Play
Now, let’s talk about why the over 36.5 points is an enticing option for this game. Despite both teams’ offensive struggles, there are several factors pointing towards a higher-scoring affair:
- Desperation Factor: Both teams need a win badly, which could lead to more aggressive play-calling and risk-taking.
- O’Connell’s Debut: The Raiders’ offense could see a spark with the rookie QB at the helm, potentially leading to more points.
- Steelers’ Offensive Potential: Pittsburgh’s offense has shown flashes of brilliance and could finally put it all together against a weaker Raiders defense.
- Special Teams and Defensive Scoring: Both teams have playmakers who can score in non-traditional ways, potentially pushing the total over.
What the Models Say
Let’s look at what five top prediction models are forecasting for this game:
- ESPN FPI: Steelers 23, Raiders 20 (Total: 43)
- BetQL: Steelers 21, Raiders 20 (Total: 41)
- SportsLine AI: Steelers 24, Raiders 19 (Total: 43)
- Dimers AI: Steelers 21, Raiders 19 (Total: 40)
- Action Network PRO: Steelers 22, Raiders 18 (Total: 40)
Four out of five models predict a total score above 36.5, lending support to the over.
The Final Verdict
While both defenses have shown they can be stingy, the circumstances of this game point towards a higher-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are expecting. With the Steelers’ offensive weapons and the potential for a revitalized Raiders attack under O’Connell, we could see fireworks in the desert.
The average predicted total from our models is 41.4 points, comfortably above the 36.5 line. When you factor in the desperation both teams are feeling and the potential for big plays on both sides, taking the over looks like a smart move.
So grab your favorite game-day snacks, settle into your lucky spot on the couch, and get ready for what promises to be a thrilling contest between two proud franchises. May the best team win – and may they do it with plenty of points on the board!
PICK: Over 36.5 total points WIN
