The NBA Eastern Conference Finals have brought excitement, grit, and drama — and as the New York Knicks face off against the Indiana Pacers in Game 4 on May 27, 2025, all eyes are on the series’ key playmakers. The Pacers currently hold a 2-1 lead, but after a gutsy Knicks win in Game 3 (106-100), momentum might be shifting. For bettors and basketball fans alike, Game 4 presents an intriguing opportunity in the player props market — specifically, targeting Jalen Brunson’s points total.
Let’s break down why this is the most promising prop bet for this matchup and what makes it a high-confidence wager heading into a critical playoff game.
Jalen Brunson: The Knicks’ Offensive Catalyst
Throughout the 2024-25 season, Jalen Brunson has been nothing short of sensational for the New York Knicks. Averaging 26.0 points per game during the regular season, Brunson has taken over the leadership role both as a primary scorer and floor general. His ability to create his own shot, navigate defenses, and convert in high-pressure moments makes him one of the league’s most reliable guards.
In this postseason stretch, Brunson has elevated his game even further. Over the last five playoff games before Game 3, he averaged an impressive 29.4 points per game. His usage rate continues to climb as the Knicks lean on him to carry the offensive load, especially in tight, high-stakes contests like this one.
Indiana’s Defensive Vulnerabilities
The Indiana Pacers have been an exciting, fast-paced team this postseason, but their defense remains a vulnerability — especially against talented guards. Even in their victories, the Pacers have struggled to contain perimeter scoring threats.
Throughout this series and the postseason in general, Indiana’s defensive metrics against opposing point guards have lagged. Their pace of play and focus on offensive efficiency often leave them vulnerable in transition and pick-and-roll situations — two areas where Brunson thrives.
Compounding Indiana’s defensive concerns is the absence of Isaiah Jackson for the remainder of the season and the uncertain status of Aaron Nesmith, a versatile defender listed as questionable for Game 4. Without these defensive assets, Brunson could find it even easier to exploit mismatches and attack the basket.
Betting Market Confidence and Line Stability
From a betting market perspective, the over 21.5 points prop for Jalen Brunson has remained steady, indicating confidence from both oddsmakers and sharp bettors. The current line sits around -120, suggesting an implied probability of roughly 54.5% — but given Brunson’s season averages, playoff form, and bounce-back potential, the actual likelihood of this prop hitting feels notably higher.
The lack of significant line movement also reflects the market’s expectation that Brunson will return to form. Public sentiment remains positive around his scoring ability, particularly in elimination-avoidance or series-defining games where star players typically elevate their performances.
Final Thoughts: Why This Prop Bet Stands Out
When evaluating prop bets, it’s essential to consider player performance trends, matchup dynamics, game script expectations, and market confidence. In this case, Jalen Brunson over 21.5 points checks every box:
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Proven scoring consistency all season and postseason
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High usage rate in the Knicks’ offense
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Favorable matchup against a vulnerable Pacers backcourt
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Motivated to bounce back from a rare subpar performance
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Stable betting line with market confidence
Given these factors, this prop bet carries a strong 85% confidence rating — making it the single most promising wager for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
As always, remember to bet responsibly and enjoy what promises to be another thrilling chapter in this heated playoff rivalry.
Pick
- Jalen Brunson Over 21.5 Points
