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NFL divisional round picks for saturday.
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Smith-Schuster gained 33 yards on 16 routes before being forced out of the game due to a concussion midway through the second quarter en route to a big game against the Jaguars in Week 10.
There have been ups and downs from a production standpoint, but I think this will be another big game for Smith-Schuster.
Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell dialed up zone coverage at a top-six rate, and Smith-Schuster’s 2.24 yards per root versus zone was 13 among 101 eligible wide receivers during the regular season. was ranked first. And if Caldwell decided he wanted to switch things up with coverage, Smith-Schuster said he allowed a 119.5 passer when he was targeted with coverage this season, the Jags. In the Nickel he corner, Tre he almost always plays against Herndon.
Jags is 30th overall in pass defense DVOA and 30th in passing to short middle DVOA. Based on how the Chiefs finished the season, Caldwell not only prioritizes Travis Kelce over Smith-Schuster, but also Jerick McKinnon and Kadarius Toney, who pave the way for Kansas City’s No. 1 wide receiver Must.
Excluding the aforementioned game against the Jags, when he left early, and the first game when the workload was reduced, Smith-Schuster is averaging 61.6 receiving yards per game.
However, the important thing related to this prop is that he never came close to average. In his seven games he recorded at least 74 yards, and in his remaining seven games he recorded no more than 46 receiving yards.
The line has climbed steadily since opening with a recency bias discount of 50.5, but I’m predicting it at 62. 60s this season.
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Thanks to Stucky, co-host of the Action Network Podcast, for unearthing this as one of our Sunday Six Pack plays this week.
Etienne had 85% of pass snaps in Jacksonville’s playoff debut, but Jamaican Hasty was relegated to a minor role.
Increased usage didn’t translate into Etienne’s production against the Chargers’ defense, which allowed a running back (24.8) the sixth-lowest scheduled receiving yards per game, but the Chiefs’ defense surrendered. If so, it should be a whole different story. 3rd most (46.9).
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo deploys two high safe margins at the highest rate in the league. In fact, the Chiefs have allowed 20+ receiving yards against a whopping 19 running backs this season.
Despite a poor performance as a receiver last week, Etienne has 24 or more receiving yards in three of his last five games. Of his 47 running backs, at least he’s scored 25 targets this season, Etienne ranks fifth with his 9.1 yards per receiving, and this with one catch. I gave you a chance to clear the prop.
I had him predict 25 receiving yards on Saturday afternoon.
What is Quickslip?
QuickSlip is an action network feature that allows users to automatically preload bet slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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This isn’t a Ray-Ray McCloud III with less than half a receiving yard, but goose eggs aren’t out of the question for Watkins.
The key to this down is the presence of Dallas Goudart. Watkins nearly matched his target count in five games without Gedhardt (24) and his target count in 12 games with Gedhardt (25).
Without Gedhardt in the lineup from Weeks 11 through 15, Watkins averaged 3.6 receptions for 25.6 yards receiving on 4.8 targets. He was targeted in his significant 19.2% of his routes, totaling 31, 35, 37, 19, and he produced 6 receiving yards.
With Goedert joining the lineup, Watkins goes into Do Not Disturb mode, pulling targets on just 9.0% of his routes and generating just 1.3 receptions per game on 2.1 targets. His average of 17.7 receiving yards in those spots exaggerates his productivity. He posted a median of just 7 yards receiving, finishing 7 of 12 games with 14 yards or less and 9 of 12 games with 19 yards or less.
Watkins gained 14 yards on four targets and Gedhardt’s return to the lineup in Week 18, but the kicker was the Giants’ 19 yards on five targets with Gedhardt’s absence in Week 14. It wasn’t even productive against
The Giants rank 6th in DVOA against non-Nos due to limited third-order receiving options all season. 1 and 2 wide receivers. I don’t think that will change because a healthier version of defense forces the quarterback to get the ball out faster, but a lot of the quarterbacks get the ball to his top two or three options. provides the opportunity for
Nothing beats last week’s Viking battle. Despite Justin Jefferson having a quiet day, Kirk Cousins hit priority players like TJ Hockenson and Adam Thielen almost at will, leading him to the No. 3 wideout. KJ Osborne finished with just three targets, and he fell 18.5 yards short of the yard prop. In the last five games, he’s overhit against the Giants as a WR he’s only 5 of 18.
It’s also worth pointing out that Watkins is running a lower percentage route, has Goedert in the lineup, and has aDOT jumping from 7.8 to 11.4. This gives Watkins a higher cap (good for DFS) but a lower floor and median (good for betting under yardage props). Watkins’ median is projected at 15 yards.
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Hearts was reportedly instructed to avoid unnecessary contact in Week 18, seemingly creating uncertainty in the market regarding his rush volume heading into this game.
He still finished with nine rushing attempts, four of which were kneeling (still counted) and only one was an intentional run. and averaged 7.4 designed runs per non-kneeling game.
A month after the shoulder injury and with a trip to the NFC Championship Game ahead, Hearts are expected to be active without restrictions.
Hearts finished the regular season in second place on their knees with 20 and needed four men to cross the line in Week 18, but he placed a strong bet on clearing this figure without their help. I’m here.
Even factoring in one design run in Week 18, Hearts averaged 6.9 design rushes and 2.9 scrambles per game. That’s a total of 9.8 non-kneel-down carries, and his odds of recording at least nine rushing attempts, the 12th in 16 games, work in Hearts’ favor.
One of the four games Hearts failed to clear this prop was against the Giants in Week 14, where he finished with seven carries, which I consider unlucky. The Giants lacked a major defender and allowed two long touchdown passes early on, so the Eagles robbed them of additional playing volume on each drive. It averaged only 4.2 plays per drive.
The Giants have since gotten healthier on defense and moved to a more conservative, zone-focused scheme, so they shouldn’t see much explosive play. Hurts were pulled on the final two drives, instead missing a kneeling that went to Gardner Minshew.
Speaking of which, I don’t think the Hearts need to be over, but with the Eagles listed as the 7.5-point favorites, kneeling could do very well. I’m leaning more towards the Giants, but Hearts is still a good bet, given the Eagles’ win rate, if it takes one to three knees.
With all that in mind, I’m predicting a carry of 10.9 to Hurts, so it shows value at 9.5 as well as 8.5.
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Barkley ran the route at 95% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks last week, but needs to be heavily involved again due to the Eagles’ stingy coverage on perimeter receivers.
The Eagles are second in DVOA to No. 1 wide receivers and fourth in DVOA to No. 2 receivers, with Darius Slay and James Bradbury playing at a high level on the outside. Their defensive philosophy is premised on sitting in coverage and limiting explosive plays, so when it comes to defending running backs in the passing game, which ranks 24th on the DVOA, their metrics are not that great. The bad is not surprising. The lowest rank for any position.
Barkley was pulled early for Stinger when these teams met in Week 14, but the fact that he recorded 20 receiving yards on just seven routes in that contest bodes well for him.
Since then, his passing game usage has increased, clearing 33 yards in three of his last four games, including a season-high 56 yards in Minnesota last week.
I’m projecting Barkley at 30 yards, so I don’t see much value in this compared to when I started at 22.5 earlier in the week (if you’re trying to get the maximum closing line, you’ll have to take action Follow us in the app) for these values).
That said, as long as Barkley is playing 90% or more of his snaps, he has shown an ability to ignore this number. Only four times this season has the fifth-year runner achieved his 90% snap percentage, and in three of those contests he recorded 45 or more receiving yards.
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