With tonight’s game set at the Prudential Center, New Jersey, the New York Islanders face the home-favored New Jersey Devils. Both teams have shown varying strengths this season, but the Islanders come in as a road underdog with a moneyline of +119, while the Devils hold a home advantage with a -140 moneyline. The spread stands at 1.5, with a total of 6.5 goals. In this post, we’ll analyze predictions from five successful NHL models—BetQL, SportsLine, Action Network, FiveThirtyEight, and MoneyPuck—and compare these with our own analysis based on key statistics, such as Pythagorean theorem, team performance, injuries, and trends.
1. Current Team Form and Season Performance
New York Islanders (2-2-2)
The Islanders have maintained a balanced but challenging start, with 2 wins, 2 losses, and 2 overtime losses. They’ve scored a total of 13 goals and allowed 15, averaging 2.17 goals scored per game and 2.5 goals against per game. Ilya Sorokin has been their backbone in net, showing an impressive 1.34 GAA and a save percentage of .947. However, the Islanders face a setback with the injury of Anthony Duclair (LW), reducing some of their forward depth.
New Jersey Devils (5-4-1)
The Devils, on the other hand, have a slightly better record with 5 wins, 4 losses, and 1 overtime loss. With 32 goals scored and 28 goals conceded, they average 3.56 goals per game and allow 3.11. Nico Hischier has led the charge for the Devils with 7 goals and 3 assists, while goaltender Igor Shesterkin is anticipated to start. Although Shesterkin’s .902 save percentage isn’t spectacular, he’s provided the Devils with critical saves during pivotal moments this season. Notably, the Devils are free of injuries, giving them full roster availability.
2. Prediction Models Analysis
We’ve analyzed five reputable models to arrive at an average prediction for the final score, moneyline, and spread:
BetQL Prediction
BetQL models predict a high-energy match based on both teams’ recent scoring trends, with the Devils anticipated to win with a score of 4-3. BetQL leans toward the over on the 6.5 total, given both teams’ fluctuating defensive performances and the Devils’ strong offensive stats.
SportsLine Prediction
SportsLine’s model favors the Devils due to their better scoring average and roster depth. They predict a close win for New Jersey, estimating a 3-2 outcome in regulation. SportsLine leans toward the under, suggesting that strong goaltending and defensive strategies could keep the game below the 6.5 total.
Action Network Prediction
The Action Network model anticipates the Devils winning by two goals, aligning with the spread. Their prediction, based on recent form and home advantage, suggests a 4-2 outcome for New Jersey. They are neutral on the over/under.
FiveThirtyEight Prediction
FiveThirtyEight’s data-driven model places New Jersey as the probable winner with a projected score of 3-2. They weigh the Devils’ higher expected goals for, giving them a 57% chance of winning, though they expect the game to be relatively low-scoring.
MoneyPuck Prediction
MoneyPuck projects a higher-scoring game, with New Jersey favored to win 5-4 in a dynamic matchup. Given both teams’ recent scoring and the Devils’ consistent ability to score multiple goals, MoneyPuck suggests the over 6.5.
Average Prediction from Models
- Predicted Final Score: New Jersey Devils 3.6 – New York Islanders 2.8 (rounded to 4-3).
- Moneyline Result: New Jersey Devils.
- Spread Result: New Jersey -1.5.
- Total Goals Prediction: Over 6.5.
3. Our Prediction Based on Advanced Metrics and Team Analysis
Using the Pythagorean Theorem
To estimate each team’s true winning percentage, we can use the Pythagorean expectation based on goals scored and allowed:
- Islanders’ Expected Win %: (13^2) / ((13^2) + (15^2)) ≈ 42.5%
- Devils’ Expected Win %: (32^2) / ((32^2) + (28^2)) ≈ 56.6%
This calculation suggests the Devils have a moderate advantage based on season performance in terms of goal ratios, aligning with their standing as the home favorite.
Strength of Schedule
The Devils’ slightly stronger competition to date (based on opponents’ win-loss records) provides them with experience against tougher teams, while the Islanders’ recent games have been slightly less challenging. This favors the Devils in a close contest.
Key Player Influence
The Islanders’ defensive prowess largely relies on Sorokin, whose 1.34 GAA has kept them competitive. His consistent performance can be a significant factor in limiting the Devils’ high-scoring ability. On the Devils’ side, Hischier’s scoring ability and full team health provide depth and confidence in taking advantage of an Islanders team missing Duclair.
4. Trends and Game Conditions
The Devils have outperformed in home games, and with a healthier roster and more potent scoring, they could dominate a weary Islanders defense. However, the Islanders’ goalie situation is their advantage, as Sorokin has shown elite-level goaltending, potentially keeping this game closer than expected.
5. Best Possible Pick for Tonight’s Game
Combining the model predictions with our analysis:
- Final Predicted Score: New Jersey Devils 4 – New York Islanders 3
- Moneyline Pick: New Jersey Devils
- Spread Prediction: New Jersey -1.5 (expect a narrow cover)
- Total Goals Prediction: Over 6.5
