As of January 30, 2025, the New York Islanders (22-20-7) are set to face the Philadelphia Flyers (23-23-6) at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The Flyers currently hold the 6th position in the Metropolitan Division with 52 points, while the Islanders are close behind in 7th place with 49 points.
Home and Away Performance
The Flyers have a home record of 12-11-2, indicating a modest advantage when playing at the Wells Fargo Center. They have scored 154 goals and conceded 173, resulting in a goal differential of -19. Conversely, the Islanders have an away record of 10-12-3, with 130 goals scored and 141 allowed, leading to a goal differential of -11. These statistics suggest that both teams have faced challenges, but the Islanders have demonstrated slightly better defensive stability.
Special Teams
The Islanders have struggled significantly on special teams this season. Their power play success rate stands at 12.9%, ranking them 29th in the league, while their penalty kill rate is 62.5%, placing them 31st. These deficiencies have been a critical factor in their performance.
The Flyers’ power play has been more effective recently, going 5-for-18 during a six-game point streak. However, they were 0-for-3 in their most recent game against the New York Rangers.
Coaching Strategies
Under Head Coach Patrick Roy, the Islanders have emphasized a structured defensive approach, relying on disciplined play and counter-attacks. However, their inconsistency in maintaining a full 60-minute effort has been a recurring issue.
The Flyers, led by Head Coach John Tortorella, employ an aggressive forechecking system designed to pressure opponents into turnovers. This strategy has yielded mixed results, with the team showing resilience in some games but struggling with defensive lapses in others.
Head-to-Head History
The Flyers and Islanders have a storied rivalry dating back to 1972. In their most recent meeting on January 17, 2025, the Flyers secured a 5-3 victory. Sean Couturier contributed a goal and an assist, while Travis Konecny added three assists. For the Islanders, Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal, and Anders Lee each found the net.
Advanced Metrics
Despite their struggles, the Islanders’ five-on-five statistics are relatively strong, with a 54.37% expected goals percentage and a 52.92% shot share. These metrics indicate that they often control play during even-strength situations.
The Flyers’ advanced metrics are less favorable, reflecting their challenges in maintaining puck possession and generating high-quality scoring opportunities.
Puck Possession
Face-off win percentages are crucial for puck possession. The Islanders have shown competence in this area, with centers like Jean-Gabriel Pageau contributing significantly. The Flyers have been inconsistent in face-offs, which can impact their ability to control the game’s tempo.
Rest and Schedule
Both teams are playing their second game in a back-to-back set, which could lead to fatigue. The Flyers have struggled in the second half of back-to-back games, holding a record of 1-6-1 in such situations.
Strength of Schedule
Recently, the Islanders have faced a mix of high and low-performing teams, while the Flyers have encountered several playoff contenders. This variation in competition level may influence their preparedness and performance in this matchup.
Public Betting Trends and Line Movement
As of now, the Islanders are favored with a moneyline of -130, while the Flyers are at +110. The puck line is set at 1.5, and the total points for the game are set at 5.5. These odds suggest a closely contested game, with a slight edge given to the Islanders.
Situational Factors
The rivalry between these teams adds an emotional element to the game. Both teams are eager to improve their standings, which could lead to a highly competitive and physical matchup.
Prediction Models Comparison
While specific projections from models like MoneyPuck, The Athletic, Sportlogiq, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving Hockey are not available, the analysis indicates a closely contested game.
Predicted Final Score
Considering the factors above, the prediction is a 3-2 victory for the New York Islanders.
Confidence Level
Medium. The Islanders’ recent injuries and special teams’ struggles introduce uncertainty, but their slightly better defensive metrics provide a modest edge.
Recommended Bet
Moneyline bet on the New York Islanders. Their recent momentum and the Flyers’ difficulties in back-to-back games support this recommendation.
Player Props and Alternative Lines
Consider a player prop bet on Mathew Barzal to score, given his recent point streak and offensive contributions.
Key Matchups
- Special Teams: The Islanders’ struggling penalty kill against the Flyers’ improving power play could be pivotal.
- Goaltending: Ilya Sorokin’s performance will be crucial, especially with the Islanders’ recent defensive injuries.
- Top Lines: The matchup between the Islanders’ top line of Barzal, Horvat, and Lee against the Flyers’ defensive pairings will be significant.
While both teams face challenges, the Islanders’ slight defensive edge and the Flyers’ struggles in back-to-back games give New York a small advantage in this matchup. However, the Flyers’ improved power play and home-ice advantage could keep the game close, making it a contest likely decided by special teams and goaltending.
If the Islanders can control possession and limit their penalty kill exposure, they should be able to grind out a low-scoring victory. On the other hand, if the Flyers capitalize on their power-play opportunities and generate sustained offensive pressure, they could pull off a minor upset.
