The stage is set for a thrilling Big 12 showdown as the fifth-ranked Houston Cougars face off against the ninth-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders. This matchup promises to be a clash of titans, with both teams vying for dominance in the conference. The Cougars are riding high on a six-game winning streak, while the Red Raiders are looking to avenge their recent losses and prove their mettle against one of the nation’s top teams.
Date: Monday, February 24, 2025
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Arena: United Supermarkets Arena Lubbock, TX
As we dive into the analysis, one thing is clear: this game will be a battle for the ages.
Current Form of Both Teams
Houston Cougars
The Houston Cougars have been on a tear, boasting a 23-4 overall record and a commanding 15-1 mark in the Big 12. Their recent win over Iowa State showcased their resilience, as they managed to hold off a late surge to secure a 68-59 victory. L.J. Cryer has been instrumental, leading the team with 15.0 points per game, while Milos Uzan’s 4.7 assists per game have been crucial in maintaining their winning momentum.
However, the Cougars will be without Ramon Walker Jr. and Jacob McFarland due to injuries. Despite these setbacks, Houston’s defense remains one of the best in the nation, limiting opponents to just 57.7 points per game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech is coming off a dominant 73-51 win over West Virginia, showcasing their offensive prowess. JT Toppin has been phenomenal, averaging 17.3 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams have also been key contributors, with McMillian shooting an impressive 45.4% from three-point range.
The Red Raiders have been dealing with minor injuries to Chance McMillian and Eemeli Yalaho, but both are expected to play. Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in several categories, including assist-to-turnover ratio and field goal percentage, highlighting their efficiency on the court.
Key Statistics and Notable Injuries
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Houston Cougars:
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Notable Injuries: Ramon Walker Jr. (hand) and Jacob McFarland (leg)
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Key Stat: Best defensive team in the Big 12, allowing 57.7 points per game
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Player to Watch: L.J. Cryer
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Texas Tech Red Raiders:
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Notable Injuries: Chance McMillian and Eemeli Yalaho (questionable), Jazz Henderson (lower body)
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Key Stat: Leads Big 12 in assist-to-turnover ratio and field goal percentage
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Player to Watch: JT Toppin
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Why Pick Over 131.5 Total Points?
When analyzing the matchup between Houston and Texas Tech, several factors suggest that the total points scored will exceed 131.5. Here’s a step-by-step guide to support this prediction:
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Offensive Prowess: Texas Tech is second in the Big 12 in scoring offense with 81.4 points per game. Their ability to score efficiently, combined with Houston’s recent trend of allowing more points in competitive games, sets the stage for a high-scoring affair.
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Pace of Play: Texas Tech plays at a fast pace, which often results in higher scoring games. This pace can challenge Houston’s defense, potentially leading to more points than usual.
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Recent Performance: The previous matchup between these teams ended in an 82-81 overtime thriller. While Houston’s defense is strong, Texas Tech’s offense is capable of pushing the total points over the set line.
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Prediction Models: Five successful NCAA Basketball prediction models—KenPom, BPI, Sagarin, Massey, and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index—have been analyzed for their predictions on this game. Here are their projected scores:
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KenPom: Houston 72, Texas Tech 70
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BPI: Houston 71, Texas Tech 69
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Sagarin: Houston 73, Texas Tech 72
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Massey: Houston 70, Texas Tech 68
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ESPN’s Basketball Power Index: Houston 72, Texas Tech 71
While these models suggest a close game, they also indicate that the total points scored could easily exceed 131.5, especially considering the offensive capabilities of both teams.
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Historical Context: The previous game between these teams was a high-scoring affair, and while Houston’s defense is strong, Texas Tech’s offense is potent enough to challenge that defense and push the total points higher.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the matchup between the Houston Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders promises to be an exciting and high-scoring affair. With Texas Tech’s potent offense and Houston’s recent trend of competitive games, the over 131.5 total points seems like a solid pick. The combination of factors, including pace of play, recent performance, and prediction models, supports this prediction.
As the Big 12 continues to heat up, this game will be a crucial test for both teams, and fans can expect a thrilling contest that will keep them on the edge of their seats.
PICK: over 131.5 total points LOSE
