Inside the Numbers: Ravens and Bengals Battle for AFC North Dominance

The matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens on November 7, 2024, at M&T Bank Stadium is a critical game for both teams in the AFC North. As the Ravens (6-3) host the Bengals (4-5), they are favored by 6 points, with a total set at 53.5 points. This analysis will evaluate predictions from several NFL models, including those from BetQL and SportsLine, while also considering team injuries, recent performances, and statistical insights.

Team Overview

Cincinnati Bengals

• Record: 4 wins, 5 losses
• Points per Game: 26.2 (7th in NFL)
• Points Allowed per Game: 24.0 (22nd in NFL)
• Key Players:
  • Joe Burrow (QB): TD-INT ratio of 20-4, over 70% completion rate.
  • Ja’Marr Chase (WR): Leading receiver.
  • Injuries: Tee Higgins (WR), Charlie Jones (WR), Orlando Brown (OT), B.J. Hill (DT) are all significant losses for the offense and defense.

Baltimore Ravens

• Record: 6 wins, 3 losses
• Points per Game: 34.0 (1st in NFL)
• Points Allowed per Game: 19.0 (7th in NFL)
• Key Players:
  • Lamar Jackson (QB): Exceptional passing and rushing stats; threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns in their last matchup against Cincinnati.
  • Derrick Henry (RB): Key contributor to the ground game.
  • Injuries: Brent Urban (DE), Isaiah Likely (TE), Jalyn Armour-Davis (CB), Rasheen Ali (RB) are notable absences.

Model Predictions

• According to SportsLine’s simulations, the Ravens are projected to win with an average score of approximately 31-24, while BetQL suggests a similar outcome with Baltimore taking it by a touchdown margin.
• ESPN’s FPI gives the Ravens a win probability of around 65%, aligning with other models suggesting a close game but favoring Baltimore.

Average Final Score Calculation

To derive an average final score based on these models:

• SportsLine: Ravens 31, Bengals 24
• BetQL: Ravens 30, Bengals 25
• ESPN FPI: Ravens 32, Bengals 23

Calculating the average:

Thus, the predicted average final score is approximately:
Ravens: 31, Bengals: 24.

Moneyline and Spread Predictions

• Moneyline: The Ravens are favored at -268 while the Bengals sit at +217.
• Spread Prediction: Most models suggest taking the Ravens to cover the spread of -6 given their recent form and home advantage.

Personal Prediction

Considering the Pythagorean theorem for expected wins based on points scored and allowed:

For the Ravens:

For the Bengals:

Final Prediction

Taking into account injuries, recent performances, and model predictions:

• I predict a final score of:
  Ravens: 30, Bengals: 23.

Best Pick Recommendation

Given all analyses:

1. Pick Against Spread: Ravens -6.
2. Total Points Over/Under: Lean towards Over on total points given both teams’ scoring capabilities.

This matchup promises to be competitive, but with Baltimore’s current form and home-field advantage, they are likely to secure a victory while covering the spread.

PICK: Total Points Over 53 (WIN)