The NHL playoffs are heating up, and the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs are tied 2-2 in their second-round series. Now, everything comes down to Game 5, which will be played on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. This game is very important because the winner will take a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series and be just one win away from moving on to the next round.
In this article, we will take a close look at both teams, their strengths and weaknesses, recent performances, injuries, and what the numbers and expert models say about the likely outcome. We will also explain why we expect the total number of goals scored in this game to be under 6, meaning a low-scoring and tight game. Whether you are a casual hockey fan or someone who wants to understand the game better, this guide will help you follow the action and know what to watch for.
How Both Teams Have Played So Far
Florida Panthers: Strong Defense and Balanced Scoring
The Panthers have been very good at defense in the last two games. After giving up 13 goals in the first three games, they tightened up and allowed only two goals in Game 4, winning 2-0. Their goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky, was excellent, stopping all 23 shots he faced.
Florida’s defense is tough and physical. They block shots, make it hard for opponents to get close to the net, and use their speed to pressure the other team. This has helped them keep the Maple Leafs’ best players from scoring.
On offense, the Panthers don’t rely on just one or two stars. Instead, many players have contributed points. Sam Bennett leads the team with five goals in the playoffs, and Carter Verhaeghe has also scored important goals. Their power play, which is when they have an extra player because the other team has a penalty, works well, scoring on about 23% of those chances.
However, Florida has some injury concerns. Forward Evan Rodrigues is day-to-day with an injury, and defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson is dealing with an illness. Aleksander Barkov, one of their key players, took a hit in Game 4 but is expected to play.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Struggling Offense but Strong at Home
The Maple Leafs started the series well, winning the first two games and taking a 2-0 lead. But since then, they have struggled to score. Their top players-Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares-have cooled off. Matthews has not scored a goal in the series yet, Marner has only had one shot on goal in the last three games, and Tavares has just two points in the last six games.
Toronto’s goalie, Joseph Woll, has been solid, especially in Game 4 where he stopped 35 shots. He is filling in for Anthony Stolarz, who is injured and expected to miss more games.
The good news for the Maple Leafs is that they are playing at home in Game 5. The fans at Scotiabank Arena are loud and passionate, and the team has been strong at home this postseason. Toronto has won six of their seven home games so far, and history shows that teams playing Game 5 at home have a good chance of winning.
Why Defense Will Be the Key in Game 5
One of the most important things to understand about this series is that defense has been the deciding factor. Three of the four games so far have had six or fewer total goals scored. Both teams have shown they can play tight, physical hockey that limits scoring chances.
Florida’s defense has been especially impressive in the last two games. They have blocked shots, delivered hard hits, and made it difficult for Toronto’s top players to get good scoring chances. Their goalie, Bobrovsky, has been confident and calm, making big saves when needed.
Toronto, on the other hand, needs to find a way to get their stars more involved. Coach Craig Berube has said that the players should shoot more, even if it’s from bad angles, because sometimes the puck can bounce off someone or create a rebound chance.
What the Numbers Say: Team Stats and Injury Updates
Here is a quick look at some key stats for both teams in the playoffs:
| Stat | Florida Panthers | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Average Goals Scored | 3.57 | 3.01 |
| Average Goals Allowed | 2.70 | 2.82 |
| Power Play Success Rate | 23.3% | 25.0% |
Both teams have strong power plays, but Florida has been better at preventing goals overall. Injuries could affect both teams, with Florida’s Rodrigues and Ekman-Larsson uncertain, and Toronto missing defenseman Jani Hakanpaa and goalie Stolarz.
What Experts and Prediction Models Are Saying
To get a clearer picture of what might happen in Game 5, we looked at five well-known hockey prediction models. These models use data like player stats, team performance, and recent trends to predict scores.
Here are their predictions:
| Model | Predicted Score | Total Goals |
|---|---|---|
| SportsLine AI | Panthers 2 – Maple Leafs 1 | 3 |
| numberFire Analytics | Maple Leafs 3 – Panthers 2 | 5 |
| ESPN Win Probability | Maple Leafs 3 – Panthers 2 | 4.8 |
| HockeyViz Simulation | Panthers 2 – Maple Leafs 1 | 3 |
| MoneyPuck Forecast | Maple Leafs 3 – Panthers 2 | 5 |
All five models predict a close game with five or fewer total goals scored. This supports the idea that the game will be low scoring and decided by strong defense and goaltending.
Why We Expect Under 6 Total Goals
Based on the teams’ recent play and what the models say, the total goals scored in Game 5 will likely be under 6. Here are the reasons:
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Strong Defense: Both teams have shown they can shut down their opponents. Florida especially has been tough in the last two games.
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Goalie Performance: Bobrovsky and Woll have both been excellent, stopping many shots and keeping the score low.
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Offensive Struggles: Toronto’s top players have not been scoring much, and Florida’s offense is balanced but not explosive.
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Physical Play: Both teams play a physical style that slows down the game and reduces scoring chances.
Because of all these factors, the game will probably be a tight, low-scoring battle where one or two goals make the difference.
Final Prediction
This game is expected to be very close. Florida’s strong defense, balanced scoring, and confident goalie give them a slight edge. Toronto’s home advantage and desperate need for offense will make it a tough challenge for the Panthers.
Our prediction is:
Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (Overtime)
Total Goals: Under 6
This means we expect the game to be decided in overtime, with Florida winning by a single goal. The total number of goals scored will likely be five or fewer, reflecting a tight defensive game.
Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, along with the latest stats and expert models, helps fans enjoy the game more. It also shows how important defense, goaltending, and special teams are in the playoffs.
No matter which team you support, Game 5 between the Panthers and Maple Leafs promises to be an exciting and intense hockey battle. Be sure to watch closely and enjoy the drama of playoff hockey at its best!
PICK: under 6 total goals
