How the Red Storm Plan to Disrupt UConn’s Championship DNA

College hoops fans, get ready for a Big East barnburner! The No. 12 St. John’s Red Storm invaded Storrs to face the No. 19 UConn Huskies in what promises to be a clash of titans. St. John’s is riding a wave of momentum, but can they overcome UConn’s home-court advantage and championship pedigree? Or will the Huskies defend their territory and remind everyone why they’re the team to beat?

Date: Friday, February 7, 2025

Time: 9:00 PM ET

Arena: Harry A. Gampel Pavilion Storrs, CT

Let’s break it down.

St. John’s Red Storm: Riding the Wave

St. John’s has been on a tear, showcasing a blend of offensive firepower and defensive grit. Their 20-3 record speaks volumes, and their unblemished 15-0 home record is a testament to their dominance.

• Recent Form: The Red Storm are currently leading the Big East with a nine-game winning streak.
• Key Players:
  • RJ Luis Jr. is averaging 17.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, making him a consistent threat on both ends of the floor.
  • Kadary Richmond orchestrates the offense, averaging 4.9 assists per game while contributing crucial points.
  • Zuby Ejiofor leads the team in rebounding, grabbing 8.3 boards per game and providing a strong presence in the paint.
• Team Stats: St. John’s excels on both offense and defense, averaging 78.9 points per game while allowing just 65.1. Their ability to force turnovers, ranking 12th nationally with 16.0 per game, is a significant advantage.
• What to Watch: St. John’s road performance, where they score significantly fewer points (71.0) compared to their home games (81.3), will be crucial.

UConn Huskies: Defending the Home Turf

UConn, the defending national champions, have faced their share of challenges this season, but they remain a formidable force, especially at home.

• Recent Form: The Huskies are coming off impressive wins against Marquette and DePaul, showcasing their ability to bounce back from adversity.
• Key Players:
  • Alex Karaban leads the team with 15.0 points per game, providing a reliable scoring option.
  • Hassan Diarra is the primary facilitator, dishing out 6.4 assists per game.
  • Tarris Reed Jr. anchors the frontcourt, averaging 6.8 rebounds per game.
• Team Stats: UConn boasts an impressive scoring differential of +11.3 points per game, averaging 79.9 points while allowing 68.6. Their three-point shooting is a key strength, making 9.3 threes per game.
• Injury Report:
  • Liam McNeeley is expected to return from injury after missing games since New Year’s Day.
  • Ahmad Nowell is ruled out.
  • Hassan Diarra and Aidan Mahaney are questionable.
• What to Watch: UConn’s home scoring average of 84.2 points compared to their road average of 74.0 points highlights their home-court advantage.

Key Statistics

Injury Report

• St. John’s: As of now, there are no significant injuries reported for the Red Storm.
• UConn: Freshman Liam McNeeley is expected to return from injury. However, freshman guard Ahmad Nowell has been ruled out. Senior guard Hassan Diarra is questionable1. Aidan Mahaney is also questionable.

Prediction Models’ Insights

Here’s what top models predict for the final score, giving us a range of potential outcomes:

1. ESPN BPI: UConn 72, St. John’s 68
2. KenPom: UConn 71, St. John’s 67
3. TeamRankings: UConn 73, St. John’s 69
4. Haslametrics: UConn 70, St. John’s 66
5. SportsLine: UConn 74, St. John’s 68

These models lean towards a UConn victory, but the predicted scores are relatively close, suggesting a tight contest.

Why the Under is the Optimal Pick

The over/under for this game is set at 141.5 total points. Here’s why leaning towards the under is the more strategic approach:

1. St. John’s Defensive Prowess: The Red Storm’s defense is their calling card. They are exceptional at limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities.
2. UConn’s Offensive Efficiency vs. St. John’s Defense: UConn will face a tough challenge against St. John’s disruptive defense.
3. Pace of Play: Both teams prefer a controlled tempo, which can lead to fewer possessions and a lower-scoring game.
4. Model Predictions: Many models predict scores that are around or below the set over/under of 141.5.

Keys to the Game and Prediction Factors

To make an informed prediction, consider these factors:

1. Pace of Play: If St. John’s can dictate a slower pace, limiting UConn’s transition opportunities, it favors the under.
2. Defensive Intensity: Both teams have strong defensive metrics. If they bring their A-game, points will be hard to come by.
3. Turnover Battle: St. John’s excels at forcing turnovers. Winning this battle will disrupt UConn’s offensive flow.
4. Three-Point Shooting: If UConn struggles from beyond the arc, their scoring output will likely decrease.
5. Injury Impact: Monitor the status of UConn’s Hassan Diarra and Aidan Mahaney, as their absence could affect UConn’s offensive efficiency.

Conclusion

This Big East showdown promises to be a hard-fought battle. While UConn is favored at home, St. John’s is riding a wave of momentum and boasts a dominant defense. Considering St. John’s defensive capabilities, potential offensive struggles for UConn, and the predictions from various models, leaning towards the under seems like a solid choice. This game is likely to be a grind-it-out affair where every point matters.

PICK: Under 141.5 total points WIN