The Mississippi State Bulldogs face off against the Vanderbilt Commodores and this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest as two in-form teams collide under the bright lights of one of college basketball’s most unique arenas. With both squads showcasing contrasting strengths, this game holds significance not only for conference standings but also as a test of grit and adaptability.

Date: Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Time: 10:00 PM ET

Arena: Memorial Gym, Nashville, TN

So, what should we expect? Let’s dive into the stats, trends, and key factors that could decide the outcome. By the end of this analysis, you’ll have a clear picture of why the under 154.5 total points is the most logical prediction for this matchup.

Current Form: Bulldogs Riding Defensive Momentum

Mississippi State enters this game on a five-game winning streak, displaying a defensive identity that’s become their hallmark. During this stretch, they’ve limited opponents to an average of just 58.3 points per game, showing an elite ability to disrupt scoring opportunities. Wins against strong teams like Memphis and South Carolina have bolstered their resume, proving their consistency against quality opposition.

Their offense has also found rhythm, led by Josh Hubbard, who’s averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting an impressive 38% from three-point range. Complementing Hubbard is KeShawn Murphy, whose dominance on the boards and defensive versatility make him a two-way threat.

Commodores’ Resilient Play

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt comes into this matchup with a similarly impressive five-game win streak. Despite dealing with key injuries, including limited minutes from leading scorer Jason Edwards, they’ve managed to adapt and thrive. Their recent 79-74 victory over LSU highlighted their ability to execute in crunch time, with AJ Hoggard stepping up as both a scorer and facilitator.

At home, Vanderbilt has been particularly strong, boasting a perfect 6-0 record at Memorial Gym this season. This isn’t just about their skill—the unique court layout and raucous home crowd give them an undeniable edge.

Key Statistics: A Battle of Contrasts

Offensive Efficiency:

Mississippi State: 113.4 (19th nationally)
Vanderbilt: 108.2 (43rd nationally)

Defensive Efficiency:

Mississippi State: 89.1 (5th nationally)
Vanderbilt: 92.5 (29th nationally)

Mississippi State thrives on suffocating defense and precise execution, while Vanderbilt’s strength lies in their balanced offensive approach. However, Vanderbilt’s turnover rate (15.8%) could be a concern against the Bulldogs’ aggressive defense.

Rebounding:

Mississippi State: 54.6% rebounding percentage
Vanderbilt: 50.8% rebounding percentage

Mississippi State holds a clear edge on the boards, particularly on the offensive glass, where second-chance opportunities could prove decisive.

Tempo:

Mississippi State: Ranks 310th in adjusted tempo (prefers slow, controlled games)
Vanderbilt: Ranks 180th in adjusted tempo (leans toward a faster pace)

This clash of styles suggests Mississippi State will try to slow the game down, forcing Vanderbilt to operate in a half-court setting where the Bulldogs’ defense excels.

Notable Injuries

Mississippi State:

The Bulldogs have a relatively healthy roster, allowing them to deploy their core players effectively.

Vanderbilt:

Jason Edwards: Vanderbilt’s leading scorer has been dealing with a knee issue, which has limited his minutes recently. While he’s expected to play, his mobility and effectiveness remain in question.
Devin McGlockton: A key interior presence, McGlockton’s tendency to get into foul trouble could limit his impact, particularly against Mississippi State’s physical frontcourt.

Why the Under 154.5 Total Points Makes Sense

Based on the analysis and statistical trends, this game is shaping up to be a defensive battle. Here’s why:

1. Pace of Play:

Mississippi State’s preference for a slow, methodical game will likely dictate the tempo. Ranked 310th in adjusted tempo, they consistently limit possessions, which reduces scoring opportunities for both teams. While Vanderbilt’s slightly faster pace could create spurts of offense, the Bulldogs’ defensive discipline should control the flow.

2. Defensive Efficiency:

Both teams rank among the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency, making this a matchup where points will be hard-earned. Mississippi State, in particular, has been holding opponents well below their season-scoring averages.

3. Recent Trends:

Mississippi State’s games have averaged 138.7 total points over their last five contests.
Vanderbilt’s games have averaged 151 total points, but this includes matchups against less defensively inclined teams.

Adjusting for Mississippi State’s elite defense and slower pace, the total is likely to trend significantly under the 154.5 line.

4. Historical Matchups:

In their last three meetings, these teams have combined for an average of 145 total points. This suggests a competitive yet low-scoring pattern when these two styles clash.

5. Prediction Models:

Here are the projected scores from five trusted NCAA basketball prediction models:

KenPom: Mississippi State 72, Vanderbilt 69 (141 total points)
Sagarin: Mississippi State 75, Vanderbilt 73 (148 total points)
Haslametrics: Mississippi State 70, Vanderbilt 67 (137 total points)
Bart Torvik: Mississippi State 74, Vanderbilt 72 (146 total points)
TeamRankings: Mississippi State 71, Vanderbilt 68 (139 total points)

The consensus aligns with a total well below 154.5 points, further supporting this prediction.

Key Takeaways

Defensive Dominance: Mississippi State’s elite defense will be the most influential factor in this game. Their ability to force turnovers and limit Vanderbilt’s scoring opportunities is a clear advantage.
Home Court Impact: Vanderbilt’s unblemished home record and unique gym environment will keep them competitive, but it’s unlikely to result in a high-scoring affair.
Controlled Tempo: Mississippi State’s deliberate pace will dictate the game’s flow, favoring a lower-scoring outcome.
Key Player Factors: Even if Jason Edwards plays, his reduced effectiveness against a top-five defense could hamper Vanderbilt’s scoring potential.

Conclusion

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and Vanderbilt Commodores are set for a highly competitive clash in Nashville. With the Bulldogs’ lockdown defense and slower tempo clashing against Vanderbilt’s balanced yet slightly turnover-prone offense, the game is likely to be close but controlled. Multiple prediction models and statistical trends point to a lower total score, making the under 154.5 points the most reasoned and confident choice for this matchup.

Expect a physical, hard-fought game where every possession matters. The Bulldogs may have a slight edge, but the Commodores’ resilience and home crowd make this an exciting battle to watch.

PICK: under 154.5 total points WIN