Get ready for an exciting Major League Baseball matchup on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, as the Detroit Tigers take on the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in Denver. This game pits one of baseball’s hottest teams against one of its coldest, creating a fascinating clash that promises plenty of action. With the Tigers leading the American League Central and the Rockies struggling through a tough season, this game offers a clear favorite but also some intriguing storylines. Let’s dive into the key factors shaping this matchup and break down why the total runs are expected to go over 9.5.
Starting Pitchers and Their Impact
The pitching matchup features two rookie right-handers, each making their first career start against the opposing team.
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Detroit Tigers’ Jackson Jobe has been impressive this season, holding a 2-0 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 24 innings. Jobe’s control and ability to limit walks have helped Detroit’s pitching staff maintain one of the best ERAs in the league. His presence on the mound has correlated with strong team performances, as the Tigers are 5-0 when he starts.
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Colorado Rockies’ Chase Dollander has shown flashes of promise but has struggled overall, sporting a 2-3 record with a 6.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 25 innings. While Dollander impressed in his last outing by holding Atlanta to one run over nearly six innings, his high ERA and WHIP suggest vulnerability, especially against a potent Tigers lineup.
Given these stats, the Tigers hold a clear edge in starting pitching, which often sets the tone for the game.
Team Form and Offensive Strength
The Tigers are currently enjoying a hot streak, boasting a 22-13 record and leading the AL Central. Their offense has been a major factor, averaging 5.11 runs per game, ranking fifth in MLB. Key hitters like Riley Greene and Trey Sweeney have been red hot, with recent games featuring multiple home runs and high run totals. Detroit’s lineup combines power and consistency, making them a formidable opponent.
Conversely, the Rockies have struggled mightily, sitting at 6-28 and last in the National League. Their offense has been anemic, averaging just 3.23 runs per game, while their pitching staff has allowed over 5.5 runs per game. Despite playing at Coors Field, a notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark, Colorado’s lack of offensive firepower and pitching woes have led to a dismal start.
Injury Updates and Their Effect
Both teams are managing injuries, but Detroit’s key players like Manuel Margot and Kris Bryant are expected to return for this game, potentially boosting their lineup. The Rockies will have Chase Dollander on the mound despite a finger issue, but their roster still lacks depth due to multiple ongoing injuries.
Why the Over 9.5 Total Runs?
Coors Field is famous for its high altitude and thin air, which often leads to more offense and higher-scoring games. While the Rockies have been an exception this year with many low-scoring games, the Tigers’ powerful offense is likely to challenge that trend.
Several predictive models support the expectation of a high-scoring game:
| Model Name | Predicted Score (DET – COL) | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel Model | 6 – 4 | 10 |
| ESPN’s PECOTA | 7 – 3 | 10 |
| FiveThirtyEight | 6 – 5 | 11 |
| Leans.ai AI Model | 6 – 4 | 10 |
| PickDawgz Model | 7 – 4 | 11 |
All five models project total runs well above the 9.5 line, reinforcing the likelihood of an offensive showcase. The Tigers’ recent games have averaged nearly 10 runs scored, and even the Rockies, despite their struggles, have the potential to capitalize on the hitter-friendly environment.
Additional Factors to Consider
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Run Line and Moneyline Trends: Detroit is favored at around -183 to -185 on the moneyline, reflecting strong confidence in their ability to win. The Tigers have won nearly 74% of games when favored this season and have covered the run line in most of their recent starts.
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Rockies’ Struggles as Underdogs: Colorado has a poor record when coming in as underdogs, winning just 16% of such games. This trend adds to the Tigers’ advantage.
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Momentum and Confidence: Detroit’s recent dominant wins, including a 13-1 rout of the Angels, have boosted team morale and confidence. The Rockies continue to search for answers amid a tough season.
Final Prediction and Takeaway
This game looks set to be a display of Detroit’s offensive firepower against a Rockies team still trying to find its footing. The Tigers’ superior pitching, combined with their hot bats and the hitter-friendly Coors Field, points toward a high-scoring affair with Detroit emerging victorious.
Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 6, Colorado Rockies 4
Total Runs: Over 9.5
For fans and followers looking for a clear outcome, Detroit’s balance of pitching and hitting, plus their strong recent form, make them the team to watch. Meanwhile, the total runs projection aligns with the environment and offensive trends, suggesting an exciting game with plenty of scoring.
Summary
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Tigers’ Jackson Jobe vs. Rockies’ Chase Dollander sets up a pitching mismatch favoring Detroit.
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Detroit’s offense is among the best in MLB, while Colorado struggles to score.
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Injuries favor Detroit with key players returning.
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Coors Field’s conditions and predictive models strongly support a game total over 9.5 runs.
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Detroit is the favorite on the moneyline and run line, backed by strong recent performances.
This matchup promises action and runs, with Detroit expected to continue their winning ways in Denver. Whether you’re a casual fan or a stats enthusiast, this game is one to watch for offensive fireworks and competitive baseball.
Stay tuned for live updates and enjoy the game at 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, May 6, 2025!
PICK: over 9.5 total runs
