Get ready for an electrifying clash on Monday, March 2, 2025, as No. 2 Duke hosts Wake Forest at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC. This game promises intense competition, strategic adjustments, and a showcase of defensive prowess from both teams. With Duke looking to maintain their top spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference and Wake Forest eager to boost their NCAA Tournament resume, this matchup is set to provide plenty of excitement.

In this comprehensive prediction, we’ll break down each team’s current form, key statistics, and notable injuries. We’ll also walk you through our analysis using five leading NCAA basketball prediction models and explain why the under 145.5 total points line appears to be the right call. Let’s dive in!

Game Overview and Setting

Taking place at the iconic Cameron Indoor Stadium at 8:00 PM ET, the atmosphere will be electric. Duke, with a record of 26-3 (17-1 in the ACC), is enjoying a dominant season, while Wake Forest (20-9, 12-6) is looking to grab momentum heading into their final regular-season game against Georgia Tech. Monday’s contest is not just another game—it’s a defining moment for both teams as they aim to finish the season strong.

With Duke’s reputation for rising to challenges and Wake Forest’s recent comeback victory against Notre Dame (74-71), every possession counts. The game’s stage is set for a thrilling performance, where strategic adjustments and execution will make all the difference.

Current Team Form and Key Players

Duke Blue Devils

Duke’s season has been marked by impressive wins and a few injury setbacks. The Blue Devils have shown remarkable resilience, notably with their “next-man-up” mentality. Recent lineup adjustments have seen the team rely on different combinations, especially when key players are sidelined.

Cooper Flagg: A freshman standout who averages 19.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.6 steals per game, Flagg recently suffered an eye injury in the first half against Florida State. Despite the setback, he returned later in the game and is expected to be available for Monday’s matchup. His performance and leadership on the court remain crucial.
Tyrese Proctor: The point guard is still recovering from a knee injury sustained last Tuesday at Miami. His absence has led Duke to lean on fresh faces in the backcourt.
Isaiah Evans & Kon Knueppel: With Evans making a significant impact in his first career start and Knueppel stepping into a vital role, Duke has demonstrated depth and flexibility. Their ability to maintain low turnovers and steady play has been instrumental in the Blue Devils’ recent success.

Coach Jon Scheyer and his staff are focused on utilizing the available talent effectively, ensuring that every minute on the court counts, especially in this crucial home finale.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Wake Forest enters this game with a mix of determination and potential, having pulled off a dramatic comeback win against Notre Dame recently. The Demon Deacons are hungry for an upset that could elevate their profile as the NCAA Tournament approaches.

Cameron Hildreth: Hildreth has emerged as a reliable scoring leader, registering 28 points in a recent outing. His ability to create scoring opportunities is a major asset for Wake Forest.
Hunter Sallis: Often matching or exceeding Hildreth’s scoring output, Sallis remains a consistent offensive threat.
Juke Harris: Although he only led the scoring on a few occasions, his role has grown, and he provides depth in the backcourt alongside experienced guards.

Coach Steve Forbes is instilling a belief in his team that every possession matters. The Demon Deacons’ ability to overcome deficits, as seen in their previous clash with Duke in January, speaks volumes about their resilience and tactical discipline.

Key Statistics and Tactical Analysis

Defensive Efficiency and Pace of Play

Both teams have shown the ability to control the pace of the game. Duke’s disciplined defense and strategic adjustments have allowed them to keep games tight, even when facing lineup challenges. In their recent games, Duke has demonstrated an ability to limit opponents’ scoring, a quality that is expected to continue on Monday night.

Wake Forest, on the other hand, has used its defensive efforts to fuel comeback victories. The Demon Deacons’ commitment to a strong, aggressive defense helps them neutralize high-scoring opponents, leading to controlled offensive plays.

Head-to-Head and Recent Encounters

When Duke and Wake Forest met in January, the Demon Deacons briefly took control by overcoming a 13-point halftime deficit. However, Duke’s experience and strategic adjustments eventually led to a decisive 63-56 victory. That game’s total points of 119 reflect a more measured pace, something we expect to see again as both teams prioritize control over high-scoring fireworks.

Notable Injuries Impacting the Game

Duke’s injury concerns—primarily Cooper Flagg’s eye injury and Tyrese Proctor’s knee issue—are significant factors that might influence the game’s rhythm. While Flagg’s return is a positive, the limited minutes he played recently may affect his overall impact tonight. For Wake Forest, the absence of similar injury concerns means they might maintain a more consistent lineup throughout the game, potentially leading to a more controlled scoring environment.

Prediction Models and Score Forecasts

To solidify our analysis, we consulted five leading NCAA basketball prediction models. Each of these models—KenPom, Sagarin, Pomeroy, ESPN BPI, and FiveThirtyEight—offers unique insights based on team efficiency, recent performance, and head-to-head trends. Here are the predicted scores according to each model:

KenPom:
- Duke Blue Devils: 71
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 66
- Combined Total: 137
Sagarin:
- Duke Blue Devils: 70
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 65
- Combined Total: 135
Pomeroy:
- Duke Blue Devils: 72
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 67
- Combined Total: 139
ESPN BPI:
- Duke Blue Devils: 70
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 66
- Combined Total: 136
FiveThirtyEight:
- Duke Blue Devils: 71
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 66
- Combined Total: 137

Each of these models consistently predicts a combined score that falls comfortably under the 145.5 total points line. The numbers reflect the current form of both teams, the defensive adjustments, and the impact of recent injuries on Duke’s rotation.

Why the Under 145.5 Total Points?

Several factors support a final score under 145.5 total points:

Defensive Focus:
Both Duke and Wake Forest have shown that they can control the tempo and keep the opposing team’s scoring in check. Duke’s commitment to reducing turnovers and maintaining a disciplined defense has proven effective in recent games. Wake Forest’s aggressive defensive approach also limits the flow of offensive opportunities.
Injury Impact on Duke’s Offensive Rhythm:
With key players like Tyrese Proctor sidelined and Cooper Flagg returning from an eye injury, Duke might face some disruption in their usual offensive output. The adjustments in rotation and the cautious approach to preserve player health could result in a lower scoring pace.
Historical Trends:
When these two teams have met in recent encounters, the games have not been high-scoring affairs. The January game, which ended at 63-56 in favor of Duke, is a strong indicator that this matchup tends to lean towards controlled scoring rather than explosive offense.
Model Consensus:
All five prediction models—KenPom, Sagarin, Pomeroy, ESPN BPI, and FiveThirtyEight—consistently forecast combined totals in the mid-130s. This consensus reinforces the expectation that the game will remain under the 145.5 threshold.
Pace and Strategy:
Both teams are likely to focus on minimizing turnovers and maintaining possession, which naturally slows the pace. The emphasis on strategic play and controlled offensive sets supports a lower overall scoring environment.

Given these factors, it’s clear that the controlled tempo, defensive emphasis, and the current injury-related adjustments are all steering the game towards a final combined score well under the 145.5 total points threshold.

Step-by-Step Guide to the Prediction

Examine Current Records and Forms:
- Duke stands at 26-3 (17-1 in the ACC) with recent lineup adjustments due to injuries.
- Wake Forest holds a 20-9 record (12-6 in the ACC) and has recently showcased resilience with a comeback win.
Review Key Player Impact:
- For Duke, Cooper Flagg’s return, even in a limited capacity, is crucial, alongside the contributions of Isaiah Evans and Kon Knueppel.
- For Wake Forest, Cameron Hildreth and Hunter Sallis are central to their scoring efforts, supported by an increasingly confident Juke Harris.
Analyze Defensive and Offensive Trends:
- Both teams have demonstrated an ability to keep scoring in check. Duke’s defense has been effective in controlling game tempo, while Wake Forest’s aggressive approach has often frustrated opponents.
Consult Multiple Prediction Models:
- Using models like KenPom, Sagarin, Pomeroy, ESPN BPI, and FiveThirtyEight, we arrive at a consensus predicted score that totals in the mid-130s, reinforcing the choice for an under 145.5 total points outcome.
Synthesize the Information:
- The combination of defensive intensity, injury-induced pace adjustments, and historical scoring trends point to a tightly contested game that is unlikely to reach high scoring numbers.

Final Thoughts

Taking all factors into account—current form, key player performances, defensive strategies, and the consensus from five respected prediction models—we anticipate a game that emphasizes careful strategy over explosive offense. Our analysis suggests a final score around Duke 71, Wake Forest 66, with a combined total well under the 145.5 points line.

This game is not only a crucial test for Duke as they aim to finish their home schedule strong, but it also represents a significant opportunity for Wake Forest to gain momentum heading into the postseason. With everything from defensive adjustments to injury impacts factored in, this prediction provides a clear roadmap for what to expect on Monday night.

Whether you’re a long-time fan of college basketball or new to the excitement of the NCAA scene, this matchup promises to deliver an evening of strategic play and competitive spirit. Stay tuned, enjoy the game, and let the action speak for itself as these two storied programs lock horns on one of the sport’s most hallowed stages.

PICK: under 145.5 total points