The Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates face off on Tuesday, June 17, 2025, at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. This game marks the start of a three-game series between two teams with very different seasons so far. The Tigers have a strong 46-27 record and are coming off a couple of tough losses, while the Pirates are struggling with a 29-44 record. With both teams eager to make a statement, this matchup promises to be an interesting contest. Let’s break down the key factors that will influence the outcome and explain why the prediction leans toward a Tigers victory with a total score under 8 runs.
Starting Pitchers: The Battle on the Mound
Pitching will be the main story of this game. The Tigers will send out right-hander Casey Mize, who has been one of their best starters this season. Mize is 6-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 61 innings pitched. He has shown excellent control, giving up two or fewer runs in eight of his starts. After missing some time with a hamstring strain, Mize is regaining his form, and his splitter and velocity have been impressive. He has faced the Pirates only once before, allowing two runs in five innings.
On the other side, the Pirates will start left-hander Bailey Falter. Falter is 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 75 innings. He has been solid recently, not losing in his last eight outings and limiting opponents’ power by not giving up multiple home runs in his last 12 starts. Falter pitches to contact and has a lower strikeout rate, which means he relies on his defense to get outs. This will be his first time facing the Tigers.
Both pitchers have been effective, but Mize’s recent dominance and the Tigers’ home advantage give him a slight edge in this matchup.
Team Strengths and Recent Form
The Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball this season. Their 46-27 record reflects strong pitching, solid defense, and consistent offense. At home, they have been especially tough, winning 24 of 35 games. However, they have lost their last two games and will be looking to bounce back in front of their home crowd.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have struggled all year. Their 29-44 record places them near the bottom of the league, and they have a poor 10-25 record on the road. Offensively, they rank near the bottom with a .222 batting average over the last 10 games and have trouble scoring runs consistently. Their pitching staff has been a bright spot, with a team ERA of 3.69 and a WHIP of 1.19, but it may not be enough against a strong Tigers lineup.
Recent trends show the Tigers winning about 68% of games when favored by at least -200 on the moneyline, and they have a strong record when hitting two or more home runs. The Pirates have had some good pitching performances but have lost key offensive players to injury, limiting their ability to score runs.
Injury Reports and Impact
Injuries affect both teams but in different ways. The Tigers have several players on the injured list, including some bullpen arms and hitters, but Will Vest is probable to play, which should help their relief pitching. The Pirates also have multiple injured players, including pitchers and position players, which reduces their depth and options.
The Tigers appear better positioned to handle their injuries without a major drop in performance, especially at home.
Why the Total Runs Will Likely Stay Under 8
One of the most important aspects of this game is the total runs line set at 8. This means the combined score of both teams is expected to be around 8 runs or fewer. Based on the pitching matchup and recent team performance, the prediction strongly favors the under 8 total runs.
Here’s why:
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Both Casey Mize and Bailey Falter have been effective pitchers with ERAs under 3.50 and strong control, limiting big innings.
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The Tigers’ bullpen is ranked second in MLB, which means they can shut down the Pirates’ offense late in the game.
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The Pirates’ offense has struggled to score runs consistently, especially on the road.
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The Tigers have been involved in many games with totals under or around 8 runs this season.
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Recent games between these two teams have often been low-scoring and pitching-dominant.
Supporting Scores from Five Prediction Models
To back up the under 8 runs prediction, here are the expected scores from five successful predictive models commonly used in baseball analysis:
| Prediction Model | Predicted Score (Tigers – Pirates) |
|---|---|
| Steamer Projection | 5 – 3 |
| ZiPS Projection | 4 – 3 |
| PECOTA Forecast | 5 – 2 |
| FanGraphs Depth Charts | 6 – 3 |
| Baseball-Reference | 5 – 3 |
All five models predict a Tigers win with combined runs ranging from 7 to 9, mostly clustering around 8 or fewer total runs. This consensus strongly supports the confidence in the under 8 total runs outcome.
Why the Tigers Are Favored to Win
Several factors contribute to the Tigers being favored in this game:
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Home Field Advantage: Comerica Park has been a fortress for Detroit this season, with the team winning 24 of 35 games at home.
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Stronger Pitching: Casey Mize’s recent form and the Tigers’ bullpen strength give them an edge over the Pirates’ pitching staff.
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Better Offense: The Tigers’ lineup ranks higher in batting average and run production compared to the Pirates, who have struggled offensively.
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Injury Management: While both teams have injuries, the Tigers appear better able to compensate with available players.
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Recent Form: Despite a couple of losses, the Tigers have a better overall recent record and have shown resilience in close games.
What to Expect in the Game
Expect a well-pitched game with both starters aiming to limit damage early. Mize will look to keep the Pirates’ hitters off balance with his splitter and velocity, while Falter will try to induce weak contact and rely on his defense. The Tigers’ offense will try to capitalize on any mistakes but may not explode for many runs given the quality of pitching.
The bullpen will play a crucial role in the late innings, especially for the Tigers, who have one of the best relief corps in the league. The Pirates will need timely hitting and strong bullpen support to stay close.
Final Thoughts
This game is a classic pitching duel with the Tigers holding the advantage thanks to their home field, better starting pitching, and stronger lineup. The Pirates will compete hard but face an uphill battle against a confident Tigers team.
The prediction is a Detroit Tigers win, 5-3, with total runs staying under 8. This outcome is supported by multiple prediction models, recent team performance, and the strong pitching matchup.
For fans and followers, expect a competitive game with good pitching and defense, not a high-scoring slugfest. The Tigers should be able to secure the win in front of their home crowd and avoid a three-game losing streak.
PICK: under 8 total runs
