The Toronto Blue Jays are flying high, and the Miami Marlins are hanging on with youthful energy and plenty of scrappiness. On Sunday afternoon in Miami, the Jays will look to complete a three-game sweep that could add more fuel to their push toward their first AL East crown since 2015.
This isn’t just another late-August ballgame. For bettors, the finale carries sneaky value, and the sharpest angle sits squarely on the Over 7.5 runs. Let’s dive in and see why this total looks primed to cash.
Blue Jays: Riding the Wave of a Title Hunt
If you’ve been following Toronto lately, you know this isn’t the same team that stumbled to a last-place finish in the division a year ago. With 76 wins already, the Jays have not only surpassed their 2023 total but also look like a squad that’s peaking at the right time. They’re averaging more than six runs per game over the past couple of weeks, and the bats are red-hot from top to bottom.
At the heart of it all, of course, is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His status for Sunday has been the talk of the clubhouse ever since he tweaked his hamstring earlier in the week. Guerrero didn’t get into Saturday’s wild extra-inning victory, though he was on deck when the game ended, which felt like a strong hint that he’s ready to go. Whether he plays or not, this Blue Jays offense has been relentless. But let’s be honest—if he’s back in the lineup, the run potential skyrockets. Since the All-Star break, Guerrero has looked like his vintage self, batting well over .360 with thunderous power. He’s the kind of bat that changes an entire pitching approach.
Even without him, Toronto’s depth has been key. Bo Bichette is smacking line drives all over the park, Daulton Varsho has been sneaky hot with timely home runs, and the supporting cast has chipped in just enough to keep the pressure on opposing pitchers. This is a group that doesn’t quit—even down late, as Saturday’s 12-inning thriller proved.
Kevin Gausman: The Good, the Bad, and the In-Between
On the mound for Toronto is Kevin Gausman, a pitcher who’s been both a riddle and a weapon this season. His month-by-month splits are a rollercoaster—an ERA in the mid-4s in April, a dominant May, a shaky June, then another strong rebound in July. August has been a mixed bag too. But one thing stands out: when Gausman gets locked in, he’s tough to square up.
Interestingly, he has what’s known as reverse splits. Right-handed batters, who are usually supposed to have the advantage, are hitting better against him than lefties. That’s a wrinkle that could come into play against a young Marlins lineup that’s been plugging in a variety of right-handed rookies. Still, Gausman has the ability to give up the occasional crooked inning, and that’s what keeps the door open for the total to creep up.
And then there’s Toronto’s bullpen. It’s been serviceable, but with injuries piling up—including Yimi Garcia and Bowden Francis sidelined—this is not the deepest relief corps in baseball. Extra innings on Saturday certainly didn’t help either. If Gausman doesn’t go deep into the game, the Marlins will get their swings against a tired group of arms. That’s music to the ears of anyone holding an Over ticket.
Marlins: Young, Hungry, and Dangerous in Spots
The Miami Marlins are no powerhouse this year, but they are certainly intriguing. With veterans sidelined and trades thinning out the roster, the Marlins have turned to a remarkably young lineup. Rookies like Agustín Ramírez, Liam Hicks, Maximo Acosta, Javier Sanoja, Jakob Marsee, and Troy Johnston are all getting their chances. That’s a lot of youth, and while it comes with inconsistency, it also brings energy and fearlessness.
Take Sanoja for example. On Saturday, he delivered three straight clutch hits that either tied the game or gave Miami a chance. That kind of spark can change the mood in a clubhouse, and the Jays know they can’t just coast against these kids. Sure, there are strikeouts and growing pains, but there’s also a willingness to put the ball in play and pressure defenses.
Eury Pérez: The Wild Card
On the mound for Miami is Eury Pérez, one of the brightest young arms in the game. At just 22 years old, he’s already shown flashes of dominance. His home numbers are especially impressive, with an ERA just over two at loanDepot Park. That’s a huge edge for Miami.
But Pérez isn’t invincible. His ERA in August is closer to the mid-4s, and he’s still learning how to navigate deep lineups. Toronto, with its blend of veterans and power hitters, is not exactly the ideal matchup for him. He might rack up strikeouts early, but the Jays have the discipline and experience to work counts, drive up his pitch total, and eventually force Miami’s bullpen into action.
And much like Toronto, Miami’s relief corps is far from bulletproof. Injuries have shredded the depth, and the numbers show they’re vulnerable once the starter exits. That’s another crack in the armor where runs can—and likely will—pile up.
Why the Over 7.5 is the Play
Now let’s connect the dots. Toronto is an offensive juggernaut right now, with or without Guerrero. Miami is scrappy and capable of putting together enough rallies to chip in their share of runs. Both starters—while talented—have question marks. Gausman’s inconsistency and Pérez’s youth create a recipe for at least a few big innings. And both bullpens? Let’s just say “leaky” is the polite word.
Saturday’s game finished 7–6 after 12 innings, and that kind of high-wire act tends to have ripple effects. Tired arms, stretched bullpens, and hitters smelling blood in the water often carry over into the next contest. When you consider the Jays’ momentum, Guerrero’s potential return, and Miami’s fearless rookies, the Over 7.5 total feels not only reachable but almost inevitable.
Even in the scenario where Gausman and Pérez both look sharp early, the pressure of a late-inning bullpen duel can still push the game past the number. All it takes is one mistake, one hanging slider, one misplayed ball by a rookie, and the floodgates open.
Final Thoughts
This game has all the ingredients of a fun Sunday afternoon sweat. The Blue Jays are trying to keep their foot on the gas as they march toward the division crown, while the Marlins’ youngsters are eager to prove they belong. For bettors, the real story is the scoring potential. Toronto has the power and depth to do most of the heavy lifting, and Miami has just enough spark to push things over the edge.
So grab a seat, maybe grab a cold drink too, and lock in that Over 7.5 runs. It’s the kind of wager that feels smart before first pitch and should feel even better by the middle innings. After all, baseball in late August is all about who can step up in the clutch, and when the runs start rolling in, you’ll be glad you were on the right side.
Pick: Over 7.5
