Today, March 30, 2025, the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans sets the stage for a compelling NBA matchup between the Charlotte Hornets and the New Orleans Pelicans. While neither team is vying for playoff contention, this game carries significant weight in the context of the upcoming NBA draft lottery. The Hornets enter the contest with a record of 18 wins and 55 losses, placing them 14th in the Eastern Conference . Similarly, the Pelicans hold a 20-54 record, also sitting at 14th in the Western Conference . With the regular season winding down, every game presents an opportunity to either improve their standing in the lottery or perhaps inadvertently worsen it.
Examining the recent form of both squads offers additional context. Over their last ten games, the Pelicans have managed a 3-7 record, averaging 106.9 points per game. This suggests a team that has struggled for consistency despite maintaining a reasonable offensive output in some contests . Conversely, the Hornets have been in a steeper decline, currently riding a four-game losing streak that coincided with the season-ending injury to their star point guard, LaMelo Ball . The absence of such a key playmaker undoubtedly impacts their offensive capabilities and overall team dynamic.
Delving into the season-long statistics reveals some interesting contrasts. The Pelicans have demonstrated a slightly more potent offense, averaging 110.4 points per game compared to the Hornets’ 105.7 . This scoring advantage is further supported by their higher effective field goal percentage of 45.0% compared to the Hornets’ 42.8%, indicating greater efficiency in their shooting. While both teams operate at a similar pace, with the Pelicans at 98.4 possessions per game and the Hornets at 97.0, the Pelicans’ offensive edge is evident . On the defensive end, however, the Hornets have been marginally better, allowing 113.9 points per game compared to the Pelicans’ 119.1 . This suggests that while the Pelicans might score more, they also concede more points. Rebounding has been a general area of struggle for both teams throughout the season.
The injury reports for both teams paint a picture of depleted rosters. The Charlotte Hornets have been significantly hampered by injuries to key players, including season-ending ailments for LaMelo Ball (ankle), Tre Mann (back), Brandon Miller (wrist), and Grant Williams (ACL) . Additionally, Seth Curry (knee), Mark Williams (rest), Josh Okogie (hamstring), and Josh Green (shoulder) are also sidelined for this contest . Tidjane Salaun is listed as questionable with an ankle issue . This extensive list of absentees, particularly in their offensive ranks, puts considerable pressure on players like Miles Bridges to carry the scoring load. The New Orleans Pelicans are facing their own injury woes, with season-ending injuries to Dejounte Murray (Achilles), Trey Murphy III (shoulder), Herbert Jones (shoulder), Brandon Boston Jr. (ankle), CJ McCollum (foot), and Zion Williamson (back) . Kelly Olynyk (Achilles) and Jordan Hawkins (back) are listed as questionable . The absence of key offensive contributors like Williamson and McCollum significantly diminishes the Pelicans’ firepower, similar to the Hornets’ situation. The sheer volume of injuries on both sides suggests that this matchup will likely feature many role players and could lead to unpredictable performances.
In terms of coaching strategies, Charles Lee took over as head coach of the Charlotte Hornets . While Steve Clifford previously held the position, he has moved into a front-office role . Reports from earlier in the season suggest that Coach Lee has been focusing on defensive improvement and player development, even amidst the team’s struggles . This indicates a potential emphasis on building a foundation for the future, even in a lottery-bound season. For the New Orleans Pelicans, Willie Green remains at the helm . However, there have been discussions regarding his job security due to the team’s underperformance and the impact of injuries . While Coach Green has also focused on player development and navigating rotations amidst injuries, there are suggestions of potential difficulties with consistency and in-game adjustments, particularly in the second half of games .
Looking at their performance in different venues, the Charlotte Hornets have a significantly better record at home (11-26) compared to their struggles on the road (7-29) . Their road win percentage of .194 highlights this disparity. The New Orleans Pelicans also exhibit a better record at home (13-24) compared to their road performance (7-30) . Their home win percentage of .351 suggests they are more comfortable playing in front of their own fans, although both teams have faced considerable challenges regardless of the game’s location.
The head-to-head history between these two teams this season includes one confirmed matchup on January 25, 2025, where the Hornets secured a 123-92 victory in Charlotte . This recent win for the Hornets could provide a slight psychological edge, even considering their current injury situation.
Examining the pace of play, the Pelicans tend to operate slightly faster (99.0 possessions per game) than the Hornets (97.6 possessions per game) . This difference could lead to a few more possessions for the Pelicans over the course of the game, potentially influencing the final score. Regarding three-point shooting, specific team percentages were not readily available in the provided information. However, historical defensive tendencies of the Hornets under a previous coach involved prioritizing paint protection, potentially leaving them vulnerable to perimeter shooters . Additionally, the Pelicans have players like Antonio Reeves who are known for their three-point shooting ability .
The betting market currently favors the home team New Orleans Pelicans, with a moneyline of -148 compared to the Charlotte Hornets’ +124. The spread is set at 3 points in favor of the Pelicans, and the total for the game is 212.5 . Interestingly, the Hornets have shown a decent record against the spread when listed as underdogs .
Considering all these factors, including the significant injuries on both sides, the Hornets’ recent head-to-head victory, and the Pelicans’ slight home advantage and offensive edge, this game presents a challenging prediction. However, given the Hornets’ severely depleted roster and their poor road record, the Pelicans, even with their own injury issues, might have a slight upper hand.
Predicted Final Score: New Orleans Pelicans 108 – Charlotte Hornets 103
Confidence Level: Medium
Recommended Bet Type: Spread – New Orleans Pelicans -3. The Hornets are missing too many key offensive players, and their road struggles are significant. While the Pelicans are also injured, their slight offensive advantage and home-court edge should be enough to cover a small spread against a heavily weakened Hornets team.
Player Props or Alternative Lines: Consider betting on Miles Bridges’ over on his scoring prop. With so many offensive options out for the Hornets, he will likely be relied upon heavily to generate points.
Key Matchups or Factors that Could Significantly Influence the Game’s Outcome:
- Miles Bridges vs. Pelicans’ defense: Can Bridges overcome the Pelicans’ defensive efforts and carry the Hornets’ offense?
- Pelicans’ role players’ performance: With Williamson and McCollum out, will players like Trey Murphy III (if he unexpectedly plays), Jordan Hawkins (if healthy), and others step up and provide consistent scoring?
- Coaching adjustments: Which coach will be more effective in making in-game adjustments to compensate for the limitations of their injured rosters?
- Motivation: While both teams are focused on the lottery, the desire to win any NBA game can lead to unexpected levels of effort. Which team will bring more intensity?
In conclusion, this matchup between the Charlotte Hornets and the New Orleans Pelicans is a fascinating one, primarily due to the significant impact of injuries on both sides. While the Pelicans are favored at home, the Hornets have shown they can compete, even securing a recent victory against them. Ultimately, the depth and performance of the role players, along with which team can better execute their coach’s game plan despite the limitations, will likely determine the outcome of this intriguing contest in the Big Easy.
