On February 19, 2025, the UCF Knights (13-12, 4-10 Big 12) will face the Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-13, 4-10 Big 12) at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Both teams are seeking to break their recent losing streaks and improve their standings within the Big 12 Conference.
Team Standings and Recent Performance
The UCF Knights are currently on a six-game losing streak, having lost eight of their last nine games. Their most recent defeat was a 76-63 loss to Colorado, where despite strong individual performances, the team struggled to maintain momentum. Defensively, UCF has been allowing an average of 79.6 points per game, ranking near the bottom in NCAA basketball.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have also faced challenges, losing six of their last eight games, including a recent 93-55 defeat to Texas Tech. Offensively, the Cowboys have struggled, shooting just 35% from the field in their last outing. However, they have a solid home record of 9-3, which could provide an advantage in this matchup.
Team Statistics
Oklahoma State averages 72.2 points per game, while UCF allows 79.6 points per game. Conversely, UCF averages 78.4 points per game, slightly higher than the 75.2 points per game that Oklahoma State concedes. Over their last ten games, the Cowboys have averaged 69.8 points and 28.3 rebounds per game, allowing 78.2 points per game. The Knights have averaged 78.0 points and 30.5 rebounds per game, while allowing 83.3 points per game in the same span.
Player Analysis
Oklahoma State Cowboys: Marchelus Avery leads the team with 12.2 points per game, while Abou Ousmane contributes 11.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Arturo Dean adds 6.8 points, 3.1 assists, and two steals per game, providing defensive strength.
UCF Knights: Keyshawn Hall is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 18.5 points and seven rebounds per game. Darius Johnson adds 14.5 points per game and averages 2.4 made three-pointers per game. However, the Knights are dealing with injuries to key players, including Jordan Ivy-Curry and Jaylin Sellers, which may impact their performance.
Coaching Analysis
Both teams are led by experienced coaches who emphasize different tactical approaches. UCF’s fast-paced offense relies on quick transitions and high shot volumes, while Oklahoma State focuses on a more deliberate, defense-oriented strategy. The ability of each coach to make in-game adjustments, especially in response to the other’s style, will be crucial in determining the outcome.
Home Court Advantage
Oklahoma State’s strong 9-3 home record suggests a significant home court advantage. The energetic atmosphere at Gallagher-Iba Arena often boosts the Cowboys’ performance, potentially posing challenges for the visiting Knights, who have struggled on the road.
Tempo
UCF prefers an up-tempo style, ranking 32nd nationally in field goals attempted per game. In contrast, Oklahoma State adopts a slower pace, ranking 286th in field goals attempted. The clash of these tempos will be a key factor, with the game’s pace likely influencing scoring opportunities and overall momentum.
Three-Point Shooting
Darius Johnson leads UCF with an average of 2.4 made three-pointers per game, providing a significant perimeter threat. Oklahoma State’s defense will need to focus on limiting his opportunities from beyond the arc to prevent UCF from gaining an edge through long-range shooting.
Strength of Schedule
Both teams have faced challenging schedules within the competitive Big 12 Conference. Their similar conference records reflect the difficulties encountered against high-quality opponents, underscoring the importance of this matchup for both teams’ standings and morale.
Advanced Metrics
According to KenPom rankings, UCF holds an offensive efficiency rating of 115.7, ranking 73rd nationally, while Oklahoma State’s offensive efficiency is 109.1, ranking 108th. Defensively, both teams have room for improvement, with UCF allowing 79.6 points per game and Oklahoma State conceding 75.2 points per game.
Historical Matchups
UCF has won the last three meetings against Oklahoma State, including a close overtime victory in 2022. This recent success may provide the Knights with a psychological advantage, although each game presents new challenges and dynamics.
Conference Implications
With both teams holding 4-10 conference records, this game carries significant weight for Big 12 standings and potential tournament seeding. A victory could serve as a turning point, providing momentum as the season progresses.
Public Betting Trends and Line Movement
As of February 18, 2025, Oklahoma State is a slight favorite with a 1.5-point spread. The over/under for the game is set at 160.5 points. Bettors should monitor any line movements leading up to the game, as changes could reflect shifting public sentiment or emerging information.
Situational Factors
UCF is dealing with key injuries, notably to Jordan Ivy-Curry and Jaylin Sellers, which may affect their depth and performance. Oklahoma State, playing at home and reportedly free of significant injuries, may have an advantage in terms of roster stability and preparation. Additionally, the Cowboys’ strong home record (9-3) suggests they are much more comfortable in Stillwater, whereas UCF has struggled significantly on the road.
Projected Outcome and Best Bets
Predicted Final Score
- Oklahoma State 84, UCF 79
- Confidence Level: Medium
- Key Factors: Home court advantage, UCF’s defensive struggles, Oklahoma State’s slower tempo forcing UCF into a half-court game.
Recommended Bet: Over 160.5 Total Points
Both teams have struggled defensively, with UCF allowing 83.3 points per game over the last 10 contests. While Oklahoma State prefers a slower tempo, UCF’s aggressive offensive approach should push the pace. Given both teams’ inefficiencies on defense and their ability to score, the total of 160.5 seems reachable.
Alternative Bets:
- Oklahoma State -1.5 (-116): With their strong home record and UCF’s road struggles, the Cowboys are in a favorable position to cover this short spread.
- Player Prop: Darius Johnson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers: UCF’s leading three-point shooter will need to take on a bigger offensive role due to injuries, making this a solid value play.
- Team Total: UCF Over 78.5 Points: The Knights have exceeded this total in six of their last ten games, and given Oklahoma State’s defensive struggles, they should be able to put up points.
