High Stakes in Phoenix: Can the Mariners Turn the Tide Against the Red-Hot D-backs?

As the Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to clash in the finale of their three-game set in Phoenix, bettors are eyeing a potential goldmine: the Under 9 total runs. While the D-backs have been slugging their way to victories, and the Mariners are desperate for offensive production, a deeper dive into the pitching matchup, recent trends, and situational factors reveals a compelling case for a low-scoring affair. This isn’t just a hunch; it’s a calculated wager based on a thorough analysis of both teams’ dynamics.

The Seattle Mariners: A Struggling Offense in Search of Answers

The Seattle Mariners arrive in Phoenix in a tough spot, having lost seven of their last eight games and 14 of their last 20, pushing them back to a .500 record for the first time since April. Their primary Achilles’ heel has been a glaring lack of timely hitting, epitomized by their dismal 1-for-12 performance with runners in scoring position in Tuesday’s 10-3 loss. This isn’t an isolated incident; their offensive struggles are a season-long narrative.

Key Offensive Weaknesses:

• Inability to Execute with RISP: The Mariners consistently leave runners stranded, failing to convert scoring opportunities into runs. This is a critical factor in suppressing their overall run production.
• Lack of Consistent Power (Recently): While they have players capable of hitting the long ball, the recent slump suggests a collective power outage, forcing them to rely on manufacturing runs, which they are currently struggling to do.
• Batting Against Left-Handed Pitching: While their overall batting average against left-handers in their last five games sits at .256, their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is a modest .653. Over the entire season, their overall OPS against lefties is .696. This indicates they get on base, but struggle to drive in runs or hit for extra bases consistently when facing southpaws.

Key Offensive Players to Watch (for better or worse):

• Julio Rodriguez: Despite the team’s struggles, Rodriguez is a key offensive talent. His performance in clutch situations will dictate Seattle’s ability to break out of their slump.
• J.P. Crawford: His 5-for-15 career mark against Eduardo Rodriguez, including a home run, suggests he could be a factor at the plate.
• Cal Raleigh: Leads the Mariners with 26 home runs and 53 RBI, but the team’s overall struggle to score impacts his ability to drive in runs.

Injuries Impacting Offense: The Mariners are reeling from significant injuries to key position players, further dampening their offensive outlook. Luke Raley (oblique, expected out until mid-June) and Ryan Bliss (torn biceps, expected out until August-September) are notable absences that thin out their lineup depth and power.

The Arizona Diamondbacks: Hot Bats but Vulnerable Pitching

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are riding a wave of momentum, aiming for a second sweep in their last three series. Their success has been fueled by a hot offense, particularly their ability to hit timely home runs. Josh Naylor’s walk-off grand slam and Tuesday’s three-homer outburst are testaments to their current power surge.

Key Offensive Strengths:

• Power Hitting: The Diamondbacks are finding their rhythm with the long ball, which can quickly change the complexion of a low-scoring game.
• Clutch Hitting: Unlike the Mariners, the Diamondbacks have shown a knack for delivering with runners in scoring position, going 4-for-6 in Tuesday’s game.
• Batting Against Right-Handed Pitching: The Diamondbacks hold a season batting average of .257 and a respectable .806 OPS against right-handers. This suggests they can generate offense against righty pitching.

Key Offensive Players to Watch:

• Josh Naylor: With a team-high .293 batting average and a recent hitting streak, Naylor is a dangerous bat in their lineup.
• Gabriel Moreno: His three-run homer on Tuesday highlights his ability to deliver impactful hits.
• Corbin Carroll: Leads the Diamondbacks with 19 dingers and is a dynamic offensive threat.

Injuries Impacting Pitching (and thus run totals): While their offense is clicking, the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff is dealing with significant setbacks. The season-ending Tommy John surgery for Corbin Burnes is a massive blow, and Jordan Montgomery (elbow) is also out for the season. This puts added pressure on their remaining starters and bullpen.

The Pitching Duel: A Case for Low Scoring

The crux of the Under 9 wager lies in the pitching matchup, which features two very different but equally intriguing arms.

Seattle’s Bryan Woo (RHP):

• Season Stats: 5-3 W-L, 76.1 IP, 3.07 ERA, 6.27 SO/BB, 0.96 WHIP.
• Strengths: Woo has been a revelation for the Mariners, emerging as their most consistent starter. His exceptional WHIP (0.96) indicates his ability to limit baserunners, a crucial factor in preventing runs. He consistently pitches deep into games, providing valuable innings and reducing the strain on an already taxed bullpen. He has recorded nine quality starts in his 12 outings.
• Trends: Woo has pitched at least six innings in every appearance this year. While his streak of four quality starts ended in his last outing (4 runs allowed in 6 innings against Baltimore), his overall performance suggests a pitcher who keeps his team in the game. His lone career outing against the D-backs in 2023 saw him give up three runs in five innings, a respectable outing.

Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP):

• Season Stats: 1-3 W-L, 49.2 IP, 6.70 ERA, 3.06 SO/BB, 1.65 WHIP.
• Strengths (Potential): Rodriguez is a veteran southpaw making his second start since returning from a shoulder inflammation injury. While his ERA and WHIP are concerning, he has a history of success. In his last start, he gave up just two runs in five innings, showing signs of shaking off the rust. With Corbin Burnes out, the D-backs are looking for more length from their other starters, which could encourage him to pitch deeper.
• Weaknesses: His current stats are poor, and he’s still building back up after his injury. His high WHIP suggests he allows a lot of baserunners, which can lead to high-scoring innings if he can’t get key outs.

Situational Factors and Betting Trends

• Mariners’ Desperation: The Mariners are desperate to turn things around, and their focus will undoubtedly be on fundamental baseball and minimizing mistakes. This often translates to a more conservative offensive approach.
• D-backs’ Comfort: The Diamondbacks are at home, riding high after two wins. While they’ve shown offensive firepower, they also have a strong defense that can support their pitchers.
• Chase Field: While Chase Field is generally considered a hitter-friendly park, the total set at 9 suggests that oddsmakers anticipate a moderately high-scoring game. However, with the right pitching performance, it can certainly lean towards the under.
• Betting the Under: The over/under for this game is set at 9 runs. Betting on the under 9 offers a slightly better payout (-112 odds) compared to the over 9 (-105 odds), indicating that the market might be leaning slightly towards fewer runs. Crucially, the alternative total of 9.5 has the under at -101 odds, suggesting a push is a strong possibility at 9.

Why Betting the Under 9 is a Calculated and Smart Decision

Here’s the breakdown of why the Under 9 is an intelligent wager:

1. Bryan Woo’s Consistency: Woo is arguably the Mariners’ best pitcher this season. His ability to consistently pitch six or more quality innings with a low WHIP is a significant asset for the under. He limits walks and home runs, which are key drivers of high-scoring games. Even if the Diamondbacks’ offense is hot, Woo has demonstrated the ability to neutralize strong lineups.
2. Mariners’ Offensive Woes: Seattle’s anemic offense, particularly their struggles with runners in scoring position, is a major factor. Facing a left-hander in Rodriguez, who, despite his high ERA, can still be effective, they are unlikely to explode for a huge number of runs. Their .696 OPS against lefties this season reinforces this.
3. Eduardo Rodriguez’s Potential for Improvement: While his season ERA is high, Rodriguez is a proven veteran. As he gets more starts under his belt post-injury, he’s likely to settle in. His last start showed promise. He won’t face the toughest Mariners lineup due to injuries. The Diamondbacks need him to go deep, and he’ll be motivated to deliver length to save a taxed bullpen.
4. Taxed Bullpens: Both bullpens have seen action in the first two games. While Woo’s ability to go deep helps Seattle, Rodriguez’s struggles could put pressure on the D-backs’ bullpen. However, with the starters doing their part, the overall run total remains contained. The D-backs are also without key relievers like Kendall Graveman (hip, expected late June) and Justin Martinez (elbow, expected late June).
5. The “Push” Factor at 9: Betting on Under 9 provides a significant safety net. If the game ends with exactly 9 runs, your bet is a push, and you get your money back. This is a common score in baseball, and the odds reflect this possibility. This pushes the expected value of the under.
6. Recent Betting Trends: While the Diamondbacks’ games have leaned over recently, the Mariners’ recent games have shown a 4-5-1 (Over-Under-Push) split in their last 10 games with a total. This indicates a mixed bag, but also highlights the potential for lower-scoring contests.

Possible Outcomes and Why Under 9 Holds Strong

• Low-Scoring Duel (Most Likely): Both pitchers settle in. Woo continues his dominant form, limiting the D-backs. Rodriguez, though shaky, manages to navigate the weak Mariners lineup, perhaps giving up a few runs but preventing a blowout. Bullpens hold strong. Total runs: 4-6.
• One-Sided Low Scoring: One pitcher dominates, while the other gives up a few runs, but the opposing offense can’t capitalize. For example, Woo throws a gem, and the Mariners scratch across 2-3 runs. Or, Rodriguez surprisingly pitches well, and the D-backs score 4-5 against Woo. Total runs: 3-7.
• Moderate Scoring with Pitcher Struggles: Both starters struggle early, leading to some runs. However, the bullpens, though depleted, manage to contain the offenses enough to keep the total from spiraling out of control. The Mariners’ inability to get clutch hits will be a constant suppresser. Total runs: 7-9.
• High-Scoring Shootout (Least Likely): This would require both pitchers to have terrible outings and for both offenses to consistently come up with clutch hits. Given the Mariners’ struggles and Woo’s consistency, this scenario is less probable.

Even in a scenario where there are moderate runs, the crucial factor of the “push” at 9 makes the Under 9 an attractive proposition. The number 9 is a statistically significant run total in baseball, occurring over 10% of the time.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet for the Discerning Bettor

The final game between the Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks presents a compelling opportunity for bettors to target the Under 9 total runs. While the Diamondbacks’ offense has been hot, Bryan Woo’s consistent ability to limit baserunners and pitch deep into games provides a strong foundation for a lower-scoring affair. Couple that with the Mariners’ well-documented struggles with clutch hitting and their general offensive slump against left-handed pitching, and the ingredients for a tight contest are in place.

The potential for a “push” at exactly 9 runs adds a layer of safety, making this a calculated and smart decision for the discerning bettor. Baseball is a game of streaks and slumps, and right now, the Mariners are in a hitting slump that aligns perfectly with betting on a pitcher like Woo to control the game. Expect a pitching-dominant outing from Seattle and continued struggles for their own bats, leading to a game that likely stays under the projected total.

Pick: Under 9