1) What the models / outlets say (sources)

• FOX Sports (model/preview) — Score prediction: Dodgers 5, Giants 4; projects Over and gives Dodgers win probability ~56%.

• PicksAndParlays / Picks & Parlays — Score prediction: Dodgers 8, Giants 3 (Dodgers pick).

• Action Network — leans Under 8 and “leans Dodgers” in narrative (no explicit final-score). Good analytic write-up on Yamamoto vs Webb.

• FanDuel Research / numberFire (FanDuel’s model feed) — uses numberFire: Dodgers win probability ~60.1% (model pick: Dodgers).

• Covers / expert pick — recommends Over 7.5 and previews scoring tendencies vs the starters (no strict final-score number).

Note: I attempted to find BetQL / ESPN / SportsLine explicit final score outputs for this exact start date, but most of those services released win probabilities, totals, or paywalled forecasts instead of a public numeric final-score. I used their available outputs (win% / total / narrative) in the comparative analysis. (Sources above show the public picks / projections.)

2) Averaging the explicit final-score predictions

Only two trusted, public previews gave explicit final-score forecasts today:

• FOX Sports → Dodgers 5 — Giants 4.

• PicksAndParlays → Dodgers 8 — Giants 3.

Average those two numeric forecasts (Dodgers scores: (5 + 8) / 2 = 6.5; Giants scores: (4 + 3) / 2 = 3.5).
Rounded to whole runs, the averaged model prediction is:

→ Averaged final-score (models): Dodgers 7 — Giants 4.
(Use this as the simple numerical consensus from publicly available explicit-score forecasts.)

3) My independent prediction (method + numbers)

I combined the following elements:

1. Pythagorean expectation (runs scored / allowed) — official seasonal totals from Baseball-Reference / team pages:
   Dodgers: 773 runs scored / 656 runs allowed → Pythagorean win% ≈ 58.1%.
   Giants: 657 runs scored / 643 runs allowed → Pythagorean win% ≈ 51.1%.
   (I used the standard exponent = 2 Pythagorean formula for clarity.)

2. Starting pitchers & matchup — probable starters (published previews): Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) vs Logan Webb (Giants). Yamamoto’s 2025 metrics and historical dominance vs the Giants give Los Angeles a clear platoon/quality edge (lower ERA, elite xERA/xFIP percentiles). Webb is solid but has been hit by the Dodgers recently. That pushes expected Dodgers run-suppression higher.

3. Recent form / rest / bullpen notes — Dodgers: strong recent offense (Ohtani heating up, recent 5–0 win) and urgency in pennant chase; bullpen inconsistent at times but bullpen has settled in some recent starts. Giants: ended a skid with an 11th-inning outburst (momentum), but overall weaker lineup numbers vs Yamamoto. Both teams are playing regular-season schedule rhythm (no unusual rest advantage).

4. Strength of schedule (SOS) — over the season the Dodgers have faced a tougher slate internally inside the NL West and other playoff teams (their higher run totals and Pythagorean record reflect that), while Giants’ underlying metrics are less favorable offensively. The season-long SOS effect marginally favors the Dodgers for a single-game edge here. (Action Network / FanDuel previews also emphasize Dodgers’ stronger run creation).

5. Injury check / breaking news — Dodgers currently have Will Smith (catcher) on 10-day IL (hand) and several bullpen IL items noted; no last-minute starter scratches reported for this game. Giants’ publicly available injury pages show no major starters out for this matchup. No breaking news found that would remove either starter at game time. Always double-check lineups in the hour before first pitch.

Putting that together, my independent final-score prediction is:

→ Ralph-style (my) pick: Dodgers 6 — Giants 3.

Rationale: Yamamoto limits damage, Dodgers lineup (Ohtani/Pages/Freeman) provides multi-run support, Giants will score a run or two off quality starts but not enough to overcome Yamamoto + Dodgers bats. I also expect total runs to land around 8–9, but bullpen and Webb’s recent strong run of results could keep it under or around the posted total.

4) News & injury highlights to watch (today)

• Dodgers: Will Smith remains on IL (hand); bullpen depth updates matter — check Dodgers in-game transactions. Recent Dodger win over Phillies (big offensive night from Ohtani).

• Giants: won 5-1 in 11 innings yesterday to snap a skid; momentum but still weaker offense vs Yamamoto. No starter scratches reported.

If anything changes (starter scratched, late IL move, or lineup change for Ohtani/Pages/Freeman), that would materially alter the pick — double-check the official lineup ~90–30 minutes before first pitch.

5) Final pick & best-bet suggestions

• Primary (straight): Los Angeles Dodgers — moneyline (-167). My independent model and multiple outlets lean Dodgers; Yamamoto vs Webb is a tilt to L.A. Confidence: ~62% (model + matchup + Pythagorean support).

• Secondary: Under 8 (play to -120) — several analytic outlets (Action Network, Covers nuance) prefer the lower total because Yamamoto & Webb have produced lower combined runs in their recent matchups. I give the under decent value if you prefer totals. Confidence: ~55%.

• Alternate (if you want run-line upside): Dodgers -1.5 only if the price is reasonable (~+120 to +160). I prefer straight ML for lower variance. (Dodgers covering is plausible since Yamamoto limits runs.)

6) How the averaged model prediction compares to mine

• Averaged public final-score (models that published explicit scores): Dodgers 7 — Giants 4.

• My independent prediction: Dodgers 6 — Giants 3.

They’re consistent in direction (Dodgers win, multi-run Dodgers total). The averaged models are slightly higher scoring for both teams; my view is a touch lower-scoring because I weight Yamamoto’s run suppression and Action Network / numberFire under/low-total leanings more heavily.

Short summary / quick answer

Consensus (models): Dodgers favored; averaged explicit-score forecast ≈ Dodgers 7–4.

My pick: OVER 7 Total Points