Here is Why You Lose Money Sports Betting

Why Parlays Are Bad for Most Sports Bettors (and why sportsbooks love them)

If you’ve been around sports betting for even a minute, you’ve probably felt the temptation of a juicy parlay. They’re like the siren song of sports betting, tempting you with the promise of a massive payday. And let’s be real, who hasn’t dreamed of turning a small bet into a fortune? The potential for a massive payout from a small bet is exciting, and sportsbooks love to push them for a reason. But here’s the reality: parlays are one of the worst bets you can make if you’re trying to win long-term. The odds are stacked against you, and the more legs you add, the worse it gets. 

Let’s break down why.

The Odds Are Heavily Stacked Against You

A parlay is a single bet that combines multiple individual bets (or “legs”), and for you to win, every single leg must be a winner; you cannot lose any leg. While this might sound like an exciting challenge, it’s also a statistical nightmare. The more legs you add, the higher your potential payout—but the lower your probability of actually winning.

Basic Math of Parlays

Suppose you’re betting on games where each individual wager has a 50% chance of hitting (fair odds). For a two-leg parlay, the probability of winning is 50% × 50%, or 25%. Add a third leg, and it drops to 12.5%. By the time you’re betting a 10-leg parlay, your chance of winning is just 0.1%. It gets to where it is just slightly better odds than hitting the lottery jackpot.

In real life, the odds are even worse because sportsbooks bake their profit margin into the odds. So instead of getting true odds on each leg, you’re often getting shortchanged. For example, a true two-leg parlay with fair -110 odds should pay +264, but most sportsbooks pay around +260, shaving a bit off your potential return. Multiply that across multiple legs, and the sportsbook’s edge compounds.

Why Sportsbooks Love Parlays

Sportsbooks absolutely love parlays. Why? Because they’re incredibly profitable. According to industry reports, sportsbooks often hold 30% or more of the money wagered on parlays as profit. Compare that to the 5-10% hold on straight bets, and it’s clear why parlays are aggressively marketed. You ever go to Las Vegas and see all those beautiful hotels and casinos?  They were mostly built with money lost on parlays.

The Illusion of Value

Parlays seduce bettors with the promise of huge payouts. A $10 bet on a six-leg parlay might pay $400 or more, depending on the odds. That’s the kind of return that makes you dream about quitting your job or buying a new car. But the reality is, those dreams rarely come true. The sportsbooks know that the vast majority of parlay bets—especially those with many legs—will lose.  I know you see guys on Youtube and Tiktok showing winnings on a 10 leg parlay and how they made crazy money on it, etc.  But remember for every winner of a 10 leg parlay? There are hundreds if not thousands of losers.  Ever do a parlay and notice how you would have won except for that ONE game? Again, sportsbooks absolutely love it.

How Parlays Fund the Sportsbook

Here’s an example from DraftKings’ 2021 report: Of all the money wagered on parlays, sportsbooks held nearly 32% as profit. Compare that to straight bets, where the hold was less than 7%. This is why sportsbooks run ads, offer parlay insurance and bonuses, and promote massive jackpot wins on social media. Every time someone wins a big parlay, it encourages thousands of others to chase the same result, even though most will fail.

Psychological Traps

Parlays are a classic example of what psychologists call the gambler’s fallacy. Bettors often believe they’re “due” for a win, or that they have a special knack for predicting outcomes. This false confidence can lead to reckless betting.

The Thrill Factor

Let’s be honest: winning a parlay feels amazing. The adrenaline rush of watching multiple games and hitting every leg is unmatched. But that emotional high is exactly what sportsbooks exploit. They’re selling you entertainment disguised as a betting strategy, and they’re making a fortune doing it.

Loss Chasing

Another common pitfall is chasing losses with bigger parlays. After a bad day of straight bets, some bettors think, “I’ll make it all back with a $20 parlay.” This mindset is dangerous and almost always ends badly. Instead of recovering your losses, you’re more likely to dig a deeper hole.  This is one of the fastest ways to lose ALL your money.

Why Straight Bets Are Better

If you’re serious about sports betting, straight bets should be your bread and butter. Here’s why:

1. Higher Winning Percentage: With straight bets, you only need to win more than 52.38% of your wagers at -110 odds to break even. That’s a far more achievable goal than hitting a 10-leg parlay.
2. Better Bankroll Management: Straight bets allow you to manage your bankroll effectively. Parlays, on the other hand, often lead to wild swings—big wins followed by long losing streaks.
3. Lower Variance: Betting on single games reduces variance, making it easier to identify and exploit your edge over time.

When Parlays Might Make Sense

Are parlays always bad? Not necessarily. Here are a few scenarios where they might be worth considering:

1. Correlated Parlays: Some sportsbooks allow bets where one outcome influences another (e.g., betting on a team to win and the game to go under the total). These parlays can occasionally offer value, but they’re rare.
2. Small Recreational Bets: If you’re betting purely for fun, a small parlay can add excitement without risking much money. Just don’t make it a habit.
3. Free Bet Promotions: Some sportsbooks offer free bets or bonuses that can be used on parlays. In these cases, you’re not risking your own money, so it’s worth taking a shot.

Final Thoughts

Parlays seem fun and are very tempting, and there’s no denying the thrill of hitting a big one. But if you’re serious about becoming a profitable sports bettor, you need to avoid the traps that sportsbooks set. Stick to straight bets, manage your bankroll wisely, and focus on finding value rather than chasing long shots.

Remember: Sportsbooks don’t build those massive profitable businesses and flashy apps by losing money. Parlays are one of their most profitable offerings, and they’re designed to separate recreational bettors from their cash. Don’t fall for the hype. Play smart, and let the suckers fund the sportsbook’s bottom line.

Stay sharp, bet smarter, and keep your money where it belongs—in your bank account not the sportsbook’s.