Today’s matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros at Daikin Park features an intriguing pitching duel between Bowden Francis and rookie Ryan Gusto. With the Astros slightly favored at home (-113 moneyline) against the Blue Jays (-106), we’ll dive deep into the analytics to project the outcome of this American League clash.
Starting Pitcher Analysis
Bowden Francis (Toronto Blue Jays)
Francis has shown mixed results early in the 2025 campaign. His opponents’ batting average sits at an impressive .200, placing him in the 74th percentile among relievers1. However, his underlying metrics reveal some concerns. His exit velocity of 91.4 mph is higher than the league average of 88.3 mph, ranking in just the 17th percentile1. This suggests hitters are making solid contact when they do connect.
Francis has exhibited strong ground ball tendencies this season with a 44.3% ground ball rate, slightly above the league average1. His Called Strike plus Whiff percentage (CSW%) of 29.4% demonstrates above-average ability to generate both called strikes and swings and misses, ranking in the 67th percentile among relievers1.
Most concerning is Francis’s pull percentage allowed of 60.7%, ranking in the 98th percentile – meaning hitters are pulling the ball against him at an alarming rate1. His Pitch Value (PLV) of 4.93 sits below the league average of 4.97, placing him in the 29th percentile1.
Ryan Gusto (Houston Astros)
The 26-year-old rookie has impressed in his first major league action. Through six appearances in 2025, Gusto has compiled a 2-1 record with a solid 3.18 ERA across 17 innings2. His WHIP of 1.24 is respectable for a young pitcher, and he’s averaging exactly one strikeout per inning with 17 Ks in 17 innings pitched2.
Gusto made his MLB debut less than a month ago on March 31, 20252. The 11th-round pick from 2019 has clearly earned the trust of Houston’s coaching staff early in his career. His recent number change from 42 to 67 on April 15 may seem trivial but shows he’s settling into his role with the club2.
Pitching Matchup Edge
While Francis has better strikeout potential, Gusto’s more consistent performance and lower ERA give the Astros a slight edge in the pitching matchup. Francis’s concerning exit velocity and pull percentage could spell trouble against Houston’s lineup.
Team Injuries Impact
Both teams are managing significant injury concerns, particularly in their pitching staffs.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are missing several key arms, including veteran ace Max Scherzer and talented starter Alek Manoah. The bullpen is also compromised with Nick Sandlin, Erik Swanson, Ryan Burr, and Amir Garrett all sidelined. Offensively, the absence of outfielder Daulton Varsho removes a key left-handed bat from their lineup.
Houston Astros
Houston’s rotation depth is being tested with significant injuries to Lance McCullers, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Spencer Arrighetti, and J.P. France. The bullpen is also short-handed with Glenn Otto, Shawn Dubin, Ray Gaither, and Kaleb Ort unavailable. Pedro Leon’s absence impacts their outfield options.
The Astros’ rotation injuries likely explain why rookie Ryan Gusto has received an opportunity so early in the season.
Ballpark Factors
Daikin Park in Houston (formerly known as Minute Maid Park) has traditionally played as a hitter-friendly venue, particularly for right-handed power hitters. The short left field with the Crawford Boxes presents an inviting target. This could be problematic for Francis, who allows a high percentage of pulled balls – particularly concerning if right-handed Astros hitters can pull the ball toward that short porch.
Game Prediction Analysis
Francis’s concerning metrics regarding hard contact (exit velocity in the 17th percentile) and pull percentage (98th percentile) could be exploited by Houston’s lineup at home. The stat that jumps out most is his barrel percentage allowed of 14.8%, significantly higher than the relief pitcher MLB average of 8.1%1.
Meanwhile, Gusto has demonstrated poise in his early starts with a respectable 3.18 ERA. His exact pitch mix isn’t available in our data, but his strikeout rate suggests at least average swing-and-miss stuff.
The Blue Jays’ depleted pitching staff means they may need to rely heavily on middle relievers if Francis doesn’t provide length. Conversely, Houston’s injuries force them to rely on young arms like Gusto, but their home-field advantage should help.
Prediction and Betting Recommendation
Predicted Score: Houston Astros 5, Toronto Blue Jays 3
Confidence Level: Medium
Recommended Bet: Over 8.5 Runs
While both starters have shown promise, Francis’s concerning hard contact metrics combined with Houston’s hitter-friendly dimensions suggests runs could come quickly. Additionally, both teams have depleted pitching staffs, which points toward more offensive production than the line suggests.
The total of 8.5 runs looks attainable given the pitching matchup and ballpark factors. Francis’s tendency to allow hard contact and pulled balls in Houston’s park is particularly concerning. Although Gusto has looked solid, he’s still a rookie making just his seventh appearance, and regression should be expected.
Key Matchups to Watch
Watch how Houston’s right-handed hitters approach Francis. If they can pull the ball consistently, they could take advantage of both Francis’s weakness and the short dimensions in left field. Additionally, monitor how Gusto handles the middle of Toronto’s lineup in his first matchup against them.
This game features two teams navigating significant injury challenges, particularly to their pitching staffs. The team that can maximize their remaining healthy arms will likely emerge victorious in what should be an entertaining matchup at Daikin Park.
