Friday, June 14, 2024 at 7:07pm EDT, Rogers Centre Toronto, ON
The Cleveland Guardians head north to Toronto for a three-game series opener against the Blue Jays. This matchup features a tale of two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Guardians boast a stellar record of 43-23, while the Blue Jays are mired in a slump at 33-35.
Predicted Runs by Models
- PECOTA: Guardians 4.8 – Blue Jays 4.2 (Total: 9 Runs)
- Baseball Prospectus (WAR): Guardians 5.1 – Blue Jays 3.9 (Total: 9 Runs)
- FiveThirtyEight: Guardians 5.3 – Blue Jays 4.1 (Total: 9.4 Runs)
- SportsLine Simulation: Guardians 6 – Blue Jays 3.5 (Total: 9.5 Runs)
Canadian Homecoming for Guardians Trio
Three Canadians on the Guardians will enjoy a special homecoming in this series. First baseman Josh Naylor, catcher Bo Naylor (brothers), and reliever Cade Smith all hail from Ontario and British Columbia, respectively. While the Naylors have played in Toronto before, this marks Smith’s first time pitching in his home country.
Pitching Matchup: Advantage Guardians on Paper?
Taking a look at the starting pitchers, the Guardians seem to have a slight edge on paper. Logan Allen (6-3, 5.57 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland. His career record against the Blue Jays isn’t inspiring (0-2, 6.00 ERA), but his overall numbers this season are decent.
Opposing him is Kevin Gausman (5-4, 4.00 ERA) for Toronto. Gausman has historically fared well against Cleveland, boasting a 4-4 record and a 2.66 ERA in eight career appearances. He’s coming off a dominant shutout performance last week and has pitched well at Progressive Field before.
Offensive Struggles for the Blue Jays
The Blue Jays’ offense has been the team’s Achilles heel. They sport a lower batting average (.232) than the Guardians (.240) and have scored significantly fewer runs (265 vs. 332). Manager John Schneider is tinkering with the lineup, recently inserting rookie Spencer Horwitz at leadoff. Whether these adjustments will spark a turnaround remains to be seen.
Why the Over 8 Runs is the Play
Despite Gausman’s past success against Cleveland, the Guardians’ offense has been clicking lately. Their recent winning streak suggests they’re finding their groove at the plate. Furthermore, the potential return of Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier could boost their offense.
Here’s where things get interesting: the weather in Toronto can favor hitters. Combined with both teams’ pitching inconsistencies at times, this could lead to a higher-scoring affair.
Looking Beyond the Numbers: Model Predictions Point to Runs
While past performance and current stats offer valuable insights, incorporating advanced analytics adds another dimension. Several prominent MLB prediction models, including PECOTA and Baseball Prospectus (WAR), project a close game with a total run count hovering around 9. This further strengthens the case for the Over 8.
Taking All Factors into Account
The Guardians’ strong record, recent offensive form, and the Blue Jays’ potential for a breakout all point towards a game with more than 8 runs. While Gausman’s presence on the mound for Toronto adds a layer of complexity, the Guardians’ pitching vulnerabilities and the hitter-friendly environment in Toronto nudge the needle towards a higher-scoring matchup.
Pick: Over 8 WINNER
