The American League Wild Card race has no shortage of drama, and Sunday’s matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays might be one of the juiciest showdowns yet. Both teams entered this four-game set knowing they couldn’t afford to split. They needed to win outright to make a dent in the standings. After Steven Kwan’s ninth-inning heroics sealed a 3–2 win for Cleveland on Saturday night, the Guardians not only secured the season series but also pushed themselves ahead of the Rays in the race for October. Now, everything points to a tense series finale where the stakes are just as high — and where runs could be at a premium.
Cleveland’s Quiet Climb and Kwan’s Consistency
Cleveland has quietly built momentum at just the right time. They’re still fighting uphill in a crowded wild card picture, but Saturday’s victory showed exactly why they’re dangerous. Kwan has been the heartbeat of this lineup, not just because he slaps singles into the outfield, but because he seems to find those moments when the game is on the line. His go-ahead RBI single was classic Kwan: calm, disciplined, and perfectly placed. Manager Stephen Vogt summed it up best when he said, “He’s one of the guys we want up there in every situation.”
This Guardians team isn’t built like a juggernaut. They don’t mash home runs in bunches, and they don’t often bury opponents with crooked numbers in the middle innings. But what they do well is just as valuable: they grind out at-bats, they take advantage of mistakes, and they know how to win close games. That’s the profile of a team that thrives in tight, low-scoring contests — the kind of script that screams “under” for bettors.
The Rookie Returns Home
Adding another layer of intrigue, Cleveland sends rookie left-hander Parker Messick to the mound. Messick, just 24, gets to pitch practically in his backyard. He grew up in Plant City, just outside Tampa, and pitched at Florida State. Now, his fourth major league start happens to come against the team he grew up watching. If you think that won’t add a little extra adrenaline, think again.
The rookie has looked sharp early in his big-league career. He blanked these very Rays in his first career win, scattering four hits over seven innings. Before that, he gave up just one run over six and two-thirds innings against Arizona. His third start in Boston was a reminder that not everything comes easy at this level — nine hits and three runs in less than four innings — but that’s part of the learning curve. Overall, a 2.08 ERA and a WHIP hovering in the 1.30s is impressive. And while we can’t project dominance from such a small sample size, what we’ve seen is enough to believe he can handle himself in a pressure-packed environment.
Rasmussen, the Stopper
On the other side, Tampa Bay hands the ball to Drew Rasmussen, and that’s exactly who they’d want in a game like this. Rasmussen has been their rock all season, sporting a 10–5 record and a 2.74 ERA across 134 innings. He doesn’t walk many hitters, his WHIP sits just under 1.00, and he’s been nearly unbeatable since late June. In fact, he hasn’t taken a loss since June 25, rattling off four straight winning decisions since then.
Cleveland hasn’t hit him particularly well either. Across three starts and a couple of relief appearances, the Guardians have managed a .250 batting average in fewer than 13 innings. Nothing in those numbers suggests Cleveland is poised to break through against him now.
Why the Bats Might Stay Quiet
So, let’s zoom out. We’ve got two capable arms, one a battle-tested veteran and the other a rookie with something to prove on home soil. Both teams know they desperately need this win, and that typically changes the way managers handle lineups and bullpen usage. You’re going to see quicker hooks, matchup pitching, and fewer chances for games to get out of hand. Add in the fact that both teams have been leaning toward the under lately — each has gone 4–5–1 to the under across their last ten games — and the trend becomes hard to ignore.
Cleveland’s offense simply doesn’t generate a ton of runs. They rank in the lower tier of the league in batting average and runs scored, averaging fewer than four runs per game. Tampa Bay is more potent on paper, with bats like Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz capable of punishing mistakes. But the Rays’ lineup has been inconsistent lately, especially against quality starting pitching. On Saturday, for example, they mustered just two runs despite several chances with men on base. Their aggressive style has also hurt them; they’ve been caught pressing on the basepaths and running into outs that kill rallies.
If you combine Cleveland’s lack of firepower with Tampa Bay’s tendency to strand runners against good arms, it’s not hard to picture this game being decided by a couple of timely singles rather than a barrage of extra-base hits.
Injuries and Bullpen Dynamics
Both rosters are dealing with plenty of injury concerns, but Cleveland’s bullpen remains one of its strongest assets. Even with Emmanuel Clase out for personal reasons, this relief corps ranks among the league’s best in FIP and run prevention. When Vogt gets a lead, or even just a tie, he knows he has arms capable of protecting it. That’s critical in keeping totals under.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen isn’t as airtight, and their defense has been shaky at times, but with Rasmussen on the mound, the expectation is that he’ll work deep enough to limit exposure. And in a game where both sides are desperate, don’t be surprised if Kevin Cash leans on his best relievers aggressively rather than risk a late-game collapse.
Betting Outlook: The Case for the Under
When oddsmakers set this line at 8, they clearly accounted for Rasmussen’s dominance and Cleveland’s offensive limitations. But the market still hasn’t fully adjusted for Messick’s potential to stifle Tampa Bay. Bettors often look at rookie pitchers with caution, but Messick has already proven he can keep the Rays quiet. If he can get through five innings with limited damage, the Guardians’ bullpen can take it from there.
The Rays might scratch out a couple of runs thanks to their depth, but expecting them to light up the scoreboard against a poised left-hander and a quality bullpen feels like a stretch. On the other side, Rasmussen should do what he always does — attack the zone, limit base traffic, and give Tampa Bay a chance to win a low-scoring game.
The likeliest scripts play out something like this: a 3–2 Guardians win, similar to Saturday night, or perhaps a 4–3 Rays victory if Rasmussen dominates and Tampa finally cashes in with runners in scoring position. Both scenarios fall comfortably under the number.
Final Thoughts
Playoff races are defined by tight, nerve-wracking games, and this one fits the bill perfectly. Runs are going to be tough to come by with Rasmussen and Messick both capable of setting the tone, and the bullpens ready to lock things down late. Bettors often get tempted by overs, especially in hitter-friendly matchups, but this isn’t one of them. Everything points to a tense chess match that ends with fewer than eight runs on the board.
If you’re looking for value on Sunday’s slate, the Under 8 in Guardians–Rays isn’t just safe — it’s smart.
Pick: Under 8
