The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies wrap up their three-game series on Thursday, June 12, in what promises to be another explosive matchup at Coors Field. With the Giants riding a two-game winning streak and the Rockies struggling at the bottom of the NL West, this game could follow the trend of high-octane offense that has defined the series so far.

The Giants (40-28) are firmly in the playoff hunt, sitting in second place in the division, while the Rockies (12-55) continue to endure one of the worst seasons in recent MLB history. Despite the lopsided records, Coors Field has a way of leveling the playing field—or at least turning games into chaotic, high-scoring affairs. The first two matchups of this series have already delivered plenty of fireworks, with San Francisco winning 6-5 and 10-7 in games that saw both offenses thrive in Denver’s thin air.

Pitching will be under the microscope, as it always is at Coors Field. The Giants send rookie right-hander Hayden Birdsong to the mound, while the Rockies counter with veteran Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled mightily this season. Birdsong has shown promise in limited action, but the unforgiving altitude of Colorado can humble even the most talented arms. Senzatela, meanwhile, has been plagued by inconsistency and injuries, making this a prime opportunity for the Giants’ lineup to keep rolling.

Both teams are dealing with key injuries that could impact the game. The Giants are missing Matt Chapman and Patrick Bailey, two important pieces of their lineup, while the Rockies are without Ezequiel Tovar and Kris Bryant, weakening an already struggling offense. However, Coors Field has a way of turning fringe MLB hitters into temporary stars, so even with depleted lineups, runs should be plentiful.

The total for this game is set at 11 runs, a number that feels almost conservative given the venue and recent performances. The last two games easily cleared that mark, and with two shaky pitching matchups, another offensive explosion could be in store. Will the Giants complete the sweep, or will the Rockies pull off a surprise at home in a classic Coors Field slugfest?

As the first pitch approaches, all eyes will be on Denver to see if this game delivers the same kind of drama and fireworks as the first two. Stay tuned for a full breakdown of the best bets and predictions—but one thing is certain: runs will be scored.

AI Model Predictions

Model	Predicted Score (SF-COL)	Win Probability
BetQL	6.1 – 4.3 (SF)	68% SF
ESPN	5.8 – 4.5 (SF)	65% SF
SportsLine	6.4 – 4.0 (SF)	72% SF
FiveThirtyEight	5.5 – 4.7 (SF)	63% SF
SharpSide AI	6.0 – 4.2 (SF)	70% SF
Average	5.96 – 4.34 (SF)	67.6% SF

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

Giants: Runs Scored (RS) = 320 | Runs Allowed (RA) = 260
- Pythagorean Win% = (320²) / (320² + 260²) = 60.2%
Rockies: RS = 220 | RA = 390
- Pythagorean Win% = (220²) / (220² + 390²) = 24.1%

2. Strength of Schedule (SOS) Adjustment

Giants’ SOS: 5th toughest
Rockies’ SOS: 28th (easiest)
Adjustment: Giants have faced tougher opponents, so their stats are slightly stronger than raw numbers suggest.

3. Starting Pitcher Analysis

Hayden Birdsong (SF):
- 2025 stats: 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (small sample)
- Rockies’ lineup struggles vs. RHP (ranked 29th in MLB)
Antonio Senzatela (COL):
- 2025 stats: 6.20 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
- Coors Field inflates ERA by ~20%

4. Injuries & Trends

Giants missing: Chapman (power bat), Bailey (defense), Hicks (bullpen)
Rockies missing: Tovar (best hitter), Bryant (veteran presence)
Recent form: Giants won last 2 high-scoring games (6-5, 10-7)

5. Final Custom Prediction

Projected Score: Giants 6.4 – Rockies 4.1
Confidence: Giants ML (-220 implied, but COL +190 offers value if betting underdog)

Combined Prediction (Average of AI Models + My Model)

Source	SF Score	COL Score	Winner
AI Average	5.96	4.34	SF
My Model	6.4	4.1	SF
Combined	6.18	4.22	SF

Betting Recommendation

Best Pick: Giants ML (-220) (if odds are acceptable)
- If avoiding heavy favorites, Giants -1.5 (-120) is a strong alternative.
Over/Under: Lean Over 11 (last 2 games went over, Coors Field effect).
Value Play: Rockies +190 (high-risk, high-reward given Coors variance).

Final Predicted Score: Giants win 6-4

Pick

Take under 11 total runs