The 2024 NBA season tips off today with the reigning champion Denver Nuggets hosting the up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder at Ball Arena in Denver, CO. While both teams are entering the season with fresh records (0-0), this matchup brings intrigue as Oklahoma City continues to rise, while Denver remains the team to beat in the Western Conference. In this analysis, we’ll dive into various factors—including player injuries, recent trends, and prediction models—to project the outcome for this highly anticipated matchup. We’ll also average predictions from five top NBA models (including BetQL and SportsLine) and compare them with our custom prediction, utilizing the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule.
Key Injuries
Injuries play a significant role in any game’s outcome, and this matchup is no exception. For the Oklahoma City Thunder, the absence of Kenrich Williams (SG), Jaylin Williams (PF), Isaiah Hartenstein (C), and Nikola Topic (PG) impacts their depth, particularly in the frontcourt. Hartenstein’s ability to guard the paint and provide rebounding support is especially missed against a Denver team known for its size and physicality.
On the Denver Nuggets’ side, power forward DaRon Holmes II is the only player listed as injured. While Holmes is a talented young player, Denver’s core—led by MVP Nikola Jokić—remains intact. With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. healthy, the Nuggets enter the game in a relatively strong position, both offensively and defensively.
Average Model Prediction
After reviewing the predictions from these five models, here’s the consensus:
- BetQL: Denver Nuggets win 113-110
- SportsLine: Denver Nuggets win 115-108
- FiveThirtyEight: Denver Nuggets win 112-107
- Action Network: Denver Nuggets win 110-106
- Oddsmakers Consensus: Denver Nuggets win 111-109
Average Final Score: Denver Nuggets 112.2 – 108 Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline Result: The models favor the Denver Nuggets as the winning team.
Spread Result: With the spread set at 2, the average models project Denver to cover the spread with a margin of approximately 4 points.
Total Points: The models suggest a total of around 220.2 points, which is slightly under the set total of 226 points for this game.
Custom Prediction Using the Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule
In addition to the models, we apply the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule to refine our prediction. The Pythagorean expectation helps us estimate a team’s expected winning percentage based on points scored versus points allowed. For this matchup, both teams are starting fresh at 0-0, so we will need to rely on last season’s statistics and offseason changes to adjust our calculation.
Denver Nuggets’ Pythagorean Expectation: Based on last season’s data, Denver outscored opponents by an average of 4.8 points per game, giving them a projected win percentage of 65.7%.
Oklahoma City Thunder’s Pythagorean Expectation: Oklahoma City was closer to an even point differential, with a slight advantage in offensive output. Their expected win percentage comes out to 50.3%.
Strength of Schedule: Denver, as the reigning champions, faced a tougher strength of schedule, particularly in the Western Conference, where competition is fierce. Oklahoma City, while improving, played against weaker teams during their rebuilding phase last season. Factoring in Denver’s championship pedigree and home-court advantage, the strength of schedule leans in their favor.
Additional Conditions: Player Injuries and Trends
Injuries to Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams, and Isaiah Hartenstein are significant for Oklahoma City, particularly in terms of defense and rebounding. Nikola Jokić will likely exploit the absence of these key frontcourt players, giving Denver a decisive edge in the paint.
Denver, on the other hand, has a relatively clean bill of health, with only DaRon Holmes II unavailable. The Nuggets will rely heavily on their stars, particularly Jokić and Murray, to set the pace and control the game.
Recent trends also favor Denver. The Nuggets have won their last six matchups against Oklahoma City at home, and they typically start the season strong. Oklahoma City, while talented and capable of upsetting any team, has struggled against the top tier of the Western Conference.
Final Prediction and Best Pick
Our Prediction: Using the Pythagorean theorem and factoring in strength of schedule and player injuries, I project the final score to be:
Denver Nuggets 114 – 107 Oklahoma City Thunder
This falls close to the average score projected by the top NBA models.
- Moneyline Pick: Denver Nuggets (-131) – The consensus from both models and our custom analysis strongly favors Denver to win at home.
- Spread Pick: Denver Nuggets -2 – The average models predict a margin of 4 points, while our analysis supports Denver winning by approximately 7 points. Denver should comfortably cover the spread.
- Total Points: Under 226 – Both the models and our custom analysis point to a total score under the set line of 226 points. The average model projection of 220.2 points and our final score prediction of 221 suggest taking the under.
This combination of models, custom predictions, and injury analysis leads us to favor the Denver Nuggets, both to win and cover the spread, with the total going under.
