For the October 28, 2024, NFL matchup at Acrisure Stadium between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants, let’s break down predictions using top-performing NFL models, recent stats, and insights into key injuries. The analysis will synthesize popular prediction models, such as BetQL, SportsLine, FiveThirtyEight, TeamRankings, and Dimers.
Key Predictions from Models
Based on these models, here’s an overview of the consensus for tonight’s game:
- Average Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 21, New York Giants 14
- Moneyline: Steelers at -267; Giants at +216
- Spread Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the 6-point spread
- Over/Under: Under 36.5 points, given both teams’ defensive strengths and the Giants’ low scoring average.
Team Performance and Standings
The Steelers (5-2) rank 14th in scoring offense with 23 points per game and 2nd in defensive points allowed (14.4). They have shown strong performance across their schedule, with a defense that consistently shuts down opposing teams, creating a favorable matchup against the Giants, whose offense ranks near the bottom of the league.
The Giants (2-5) have struggled significantly on offense, scoring an average of just 14.1 points, and rely on a defense that’s allowed 21.3 points per game. Quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled this season, throwing for only six touchdowns and four interceptions, which impacts the Giants’ ability to compete against stronger defenses like the Steelers.
Injury Analysis
Injury impact plays a significant role in the outcome:
- Steelers: The absence of Justin Fields (QB) is a major blow, as he has been the primary offensive leader with 1,106 passing yards and five touchdowns this season. Additionally, missing players like Roman Wilson (WR) could limit scoring options.
- Giants: With injuries affecting key defenders like Adoree’ Jackson and Cordale Flott, their defense may struggle even more against Pittsburgh’s balanced attack.
Final Predictions
Using the Pythagorean expectation, which considers each team’s points scored and allowed, and factoring in the Giants’ tougher schedule, the Steelers are predicted to have an edge. The model’s calculation suggests that Pittsburgh’s win probability is further bolstered by home-field advantage and a defense that thrives under pressure.
Final Projected Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 20, New York Giants 13
Moneyline Pick: Steelers
Spread: Steelers to cover -6
Over/Under: Under 36.5 points
The combined insights from the models favor Pittsburgh as a safe pick with a likely covered spread and a low total score due to both teams’ defensive strengths. The Giants’ offensive struggles and missing defensive players further strengthen the Steelers’ outlook in tonight’s game.
