The Eastern Illinois Panthers will face off against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL. The Panthers, a team from the Ohio Valley Conference (FCS), will be taking on the Fighting Illini, a Big Ten (FBS) program. As expected in such matchups, the odds heavily favor the FBS team, with the spread set at 27.5 points in favor of Illinois. The total for this game is 45.5 points.
Prediction Models Overview
In predicting the outcome of this game, I will use a combination of the top five successful NCAA Football prediction models, along with insights from BetQL and Sportsline, to generate an average prediction. Additionally, I’ll use the Pythagorean theorem adjusted for the strength of schedule (SoS) and consider other factors such as key player injuries and trends. Here’s a breakdown:
- Sagarin Ratings: This model considers strength of schedule and team efficiency. It’s one of the most respected models in college football.
- FPI (Football Power Index): ESPN’s FPI measures team strength and predicts game outcomes based on offensive, defensive, and special teams’ efficiency.
- SP+ Ratings: Developed by Bill Connelly, SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency.
- Massey Ratings: A statistical model that combines team strength, home-field advantage, and performance metrics.
- FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index): This model evaluates team efficiency based on opponent-adjusted possession success.
Adding to these, BetQL and Sportsline provide predictive algorithms that incorporate public betting data, injuries, and other real-time factors.
Model Predictions
- Sagarin Ratings: Predicts Illinois to win by 30 points with a final score of 38-8.
- FPI: Predicts Illinois to win by 28 points, estimating a final score of 40-12.
- SP+ Ratings: Predicts Illinois to win by 31 points, with a projected score of 42-11.
- Massey Ratings: Predicts Illinois to win by 27 points, with a final score of 37-10.
- FEI: Predicts Illinois to win by 29 points, estimating a final score of 39-10.
- BetQL: Predicts Illinois to cover the spread with a score of 41-7.
- Sportsline: Predicts Illinois to win by 28 points, with a final score of 38-10.
Averaged Model Prediction
When averaging these predictions, we get the following:
- Final Score: Illinois 39, Eastern Illinois 9
- Spread Result: Illinois covers the spread (27.5)
- Total Points: 48 (Over the 45.5 total)
My Prediction
Using the Pythagorean theorem, adjusted for the strength of schedule, I’ll calculate the expected winning percentage. Given that Illinois plays in the Big Ten, one of the most competitive conferences, their SoS is significantly higher than that of Eastern Illinois. We’ll estimate Illinois’ offensive power and Eastern Illinois’ defensive capability based on previous season stats.
Illinois’ Pythagorean Expectation:
- Last season, Illinois averaged 28 points per game (PPG) while allowing 20 PPG.
- The Pythagorean expectation formula: Win% = (Points Scored^2.37) / [(Points Scored^2.37) + (Points Allowed^2.37)].
Plugging in the values:
- Win% ≈ (28^2.37) / [(28^2.37) + (20^2.37)] ≈ 0.68 (68%).
Eastern Illinois Pythagorean Expectation:
- Eastern Illinois averaged 17 PPG and allowed 31 PPG.
- Win% ≈ (17^2.37) / [(17^2.37) + (31^2.37)] ≈ 0.31 (31%).
Based on these calculations, Illinois has a much higher likelihood of winning. However, accounting for a weaker opponent and adjusting for Illinois’ stronger strength of schedule, the Pythagorean expectation leans heavily towards Illinois covering the spread.
Final Prediction
Taking into consideration the averaged model predictions, the Pythagorean theorem, and adjusting for the strength of schedule, I predict:
- Final Score: Illinois 42, Eastern Illinois 6
- Moneyline: Illinois (-10000)
- Spread Result: Illinois covers (-27.5)
- Total Points: 48 (Over 45.5)
PICK: Illinois -27.5 – WIN
