Game Analysis: Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals

The matchup at Capital One Arena features the Montreal Canadiens visiting the Washington Capitals. As we analyze this game, we will explore predictions based on various NHL models, consider player injuries, and apply statistical methods to derive a comprehensive outlook.

Team Performance Overview

Montreal Canadiens (4-5-1)

• Goals For Per Game (GF/G): 2.90
• Goals Against Per Game (GA/G): 4.00
• Power Play Percentage: 22.9%
• Penalty Kill Percentage: 83.8%
• Key Player Injury: Justin Barron (D)

The Canadiens have struggled defensively, allowing an average of four goals per game, which places them among the worst in the league. Their offense has been inconsistent, averaging just under three goals per game.

Washington Capitals (6-2-0)

• Goals For Per Game (GF/G): 3.88
• Goals Against Per Game (GA/G): 3.00
• Power Play Percentage: 7.4%
• Penalty Kill Percentage: 81.5%
• Key Player Injuries: Alexander Alexeyev (D), Jakob Chychrun (D), Nicklas Backstrom (C)

The Capitals have shown stronger offensive capabilities, ranking high in goals scored per game. However, their defensive statistics indicate vulnerabilities, particularly in their penalty kill.

Prediction Models Analysis

To derive a consensus score prediction for this game, we will evaluate five successful NHL prediction models along with BetQL and SportsLine.

1. MoneyPuck
   • Predicted Score: Capitals 4 – Canadiens 2
2. NHL Power Rankings
   • Predicted Score: Capitals 5 – Canadiens 3
3. HockeyViz
   • Predicted Score: Capitals 3 – Canadiens 2
4. Evolving Hockey
   • Predicted Score: Capitals 4 – Canadiens 1
5. Dom Luszczyszyn’s Model
   • Predicted Score: Capitals 5 – Canadiens 2
6. BetQL
   • Predicted Score: Capitals 4 – Canadiens 3
7. SportsLine
   • Predicted Score: Capitals 5 – Canadiens 2

Average Predictions

Calculating the average score from these models gives us:

• Average Final Score Prediction: Capitals 4.14 – Canadiens 2.57

Betting Odds and Predictions

• Moneyline:
  • Montreal Canadiens: +167
  • Washington Capitals: -202

The implied probabilities based on these odds suggest a strong favoring of the Capitals at approximately 66% chance of winning.

• Spread:
  • Set at Washington Capitals -1.5
  • The average model predictions suggest the Capitals will cover the spread.

Statistical Predictions Using Pythagorean Expectation

Using the Pythagorean expectation formula to estimate expected wins:Expected Wins=Goals For2Goals For2+Goals Against2Expected Wins=Goals For2+Goals Against2Goals For2​For the Canadiens:
Expected Wins=(2.90)2(2.90)2+(4.00)2×82≈7.06Expected Wins=(2.90)2+(4.00)2(2.90)2​×82≈7.06For the Capitals:
Expected Wins=(3.88)2(3.88)2+(3.00)2×82≈30.79Expected Wins=(3.88)2+(3.00)2(3.88)2​×82≈30.79

Strength of Schedule Adjustment

Considering strength of schedule based on recent performance:

• The Canadiens have faced tougher opponents recently compared to their current standings.
• The Capitals have performed well against similarly ranked teams.

Final Prediction and Best Picks

Based on all analyses:

• Final Score Prediction: Capitals 4 – Canadiens 2
• Moneyline Pick: Washington Capitals (-202)
• Spread Pick: Washington Capitals (-1.5)

PICK: Washington Capitals Spread -1.5 (WIN)

The Washington Capitals are favored to win against the Montreal Canadiens tonight based on statistical analysis, model predictions, and current form, despite some key injuries impacting both teams’ lineups. Given their superior offensive output and home advantage, betting on the Capitals to win and cover the spread appears to be a solid choice for this matchup at Capital One Arena.