The NHL playoffs are always full of surprises, but this series between the Edmonton Oilers and the Vegas Golden Knights has been especially exciting. As we get ready for Game 5 on May 14, 2025, in Las Vegas, the Oilers are just one win away from moving on, while the Golden Knights are fighting to keep their season alive. Let’s break down everything you need to know about this matchup, from team stats and recent performance to injuries and why the over 6.5 total goals looks like a smart play.
What’s at Stake in Game 5?
This game is huge for both teams, but for different reasons. The Oilers have a chance to end the series and get some rest before the next round. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, have no room for mistakes. If they lose, their season is over. This kind of pressure often leads to fast-paced, open hockey, which is great for fans and for those looking for lots of goals.
How Both Teams Have Been Playing
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have been one of the top scoring teams in the playoffs. They are averaging nearly 4 goals per game, which is the best among all teams still playing. Their power play is also very strong, scoring on more than 27% of their chances. Players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are leading the way, making Edmonton’s offense very hard to stop.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas has not been as sharp on offense, scoring about 2.6 goals per game. Their power play is good, but not as dangerous as Edmonton’s. Lately, the Golden Knights have struggled to score, especially in their last game, where they were shut out and only managed 23 shots. Still, Vegas is known for being tough at home and fighting hard when their backs are against the wall.
Injuries and Who’s Playing
Both teams have some injuries, but their main stars are healthy. For Edmonton, goalie Calvin Pickard is day-to-day, but Stuart Skinner has been playing in net and just got a shutout. Defenseman Mattias Ekholm is out, which could make things a bit tougher for the Oilers’ defense. Vegas is missing goalie Robin Lehner and forward Brandon Saad is day-to-day, but their top forwards and defensemen are ready to go.
What the Numbers Say
Here are some key stats for both teams in the playoffs:
| Stat | Oilers | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For Per Game | 3.98 | 2.64 |
| Goals Against Per Game | 3.22 | 3.20 |
| Power Play % | 27.3% | 26.7% |
The Oilers have a clear edge in scoring, and both teams are giving up just over 3 goals per game. This suggests that we could see another high-scoring game.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head
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Edmonton has won 3 out of 4 games in this series.
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The Oilers have already won twice in Las Vegas during this series.
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In the last game, Edmonton won 3-0, showing they can shut down Vegas, but also that Vegas will be desperate to respond at home.
Why the Over 6.5 Goals Makes Sense
Model Predictions
Let’s look at what five different prediction models say about the likely score:
| Model Name | Oilers Goals | Golden Knights Goals | Total Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| SportsLine Projection | 4.1 | 3.2 | 7.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight | 3.9 | 3.5 | 7.4 |
| ESPN Hockey Predictor | 4.0 | 3.1 | 7.1 |
| MoneyPuck Simulator | 4.2 | 3.0 | 7.2 |
| Action Network Model | 4.0 | 3.4 | 7.4 |
Every model expects at least 7 goals in this game. This matches what we see in the stats: both teams can score, and both teams allow goals.
More Reasons to Expect Goals
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Edmonton’s Offense: The Oilers are the highest-scoring team left in the playoffs. They have several players who can score at any time.
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Vegas’s Desperation: The Golden Knights must win, so they will take more risks, push their defensemen up the ice, and shoot from everywhere. This usually leads to more goals, for both teams.
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Goaltending: Both goalies have had some good moments, but neither has been unbeatable. If either team falls behind, expect them to pull their goalie early for an extra attacker, which often leads to late goals.
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Special Teams: Both teams have strong power plays. In playoff games with high pressure, penalties can happen more often, which means more chances for power play goals.
Predicted Score
Based on the models, recent games, and how both teams are playing, here’s a likely score for Game 5:
Edmonton Oilers 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3
What to Watch For
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First Period: Vegas will try to start fast and get the crowd into the game. If they score early, the game could open up even more.
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Stars on Display: Expect McDavid, Draisaitl, and Eichel to play a lot and take more chances.
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Late Drama: If the game is close in the third period, watch for the Golden Knights to pull their goalie early, which could lead to an extra goal or two.
Final Thoughts
Game 5 between the Oilers and Golden Knights should be fast, exciting, and full of scoring chances. Edmonton’s offense has been the best in the playoffs, and Vegas will be playing with everything on the line. All the numbers, trends, and prediction models point to a game with plenty of goals. That’s why the over 6.5 total goals is the smartest and most supported choice for this matchup.
Enjoy the game-it’s set up to be a memorable night of playoff hockey!
PICK: over 6.5 total goals
