N. Illinois @ Toledo (-13.5)

Toledo is a 13-point favorite over Northern Illinois in their matchup on Saturday, September 30, 2023 at the The Glass Bowl. The Rockets are 3-1 and coming off a win over Western Michigan, while the Huskies are 1-3 and coming off a loss to Tulsa.

Toledo has a better offense and defense than Northern Illinois. The Rockets are averaging 38.8 points per game, while the Huskies are averaging 21.3 points per game. Toledo is also allowing 27.8 points per game, while the Huskies are allowing 31.3 points per game.

The Rockets are also the more experienced team. They have 17 starters returning from last year’s team, while the Huskies have only 10 starters returning.

Reasons why Toledo can cover the spread:

• Toledo is the better team on paper. They have a better offense, defense, and special teams.
• Toledo is playing at home.
• Toledo has a good record against Northern Illinois, winning 8 of the last 11 meetings.
• Toledo is motivated to cover the spread after failing to do so in their last two games.

Reasons why Toledo might not cover the spread:

• Toledo has a tendency to play close games. They have won their last two games by a combined seven points.
• Northern Illinois is a good team, and they have a chance to win the game, especially if Toledo plays one of their close games.
• Northern Illinois is playing for pride, as they are trying to avoid losing their fourth consecutive game.

Reasons why Northern Illinois can cover the spread:

• Northern Illinois is a good team, and they have a chance to win the game, especially if Toledo plays one of their close games.
• Northern Illinois is playing for pride, as they are trying to avoid losing their fourth consecutive game.
• Northern Illinois has a good quarterback in Ethan Hampton, and they have some playmakers on offense.
• Northern Illinois has a history of playing Toledo close, winning 3 of the last 11 meetings.

Reasons why Northern Illinois might not cover the spread:

• Northern Illinois is struggling this season, and they have lost their last three games.
• Toledo is the better team on paper. They have a better offense, defense, and special teams.
• Toledo is playing at home.
• Toledo is motivated to cover the spread after failing to do so in their last two games.

10,000 game simulation results:

Toledo 37.8 – Northern Illinois 24.2

Final score prediction:

Toledo 31 – Northern Illinois 24

Confidence level: 65%

Conclusion:

BARD says: I am 65% confident that Toledo will win the game, but I am not confident that they will cover the spread. Northern Illinois is not a bad team, and they have a chance to win the game, especially if Toledo plays one of their close games.

Pick – Northern Illinois Huskies +13.5