This week’s AFC North showdown features the gritty Pittsburgh Steelers challenging the dominant Baltimore Ravens in a game with significant playoff implications. While the Ravens hold a comfortable lead and Lamar Jackson’s anticipated absence favors the Steelers, M&T Bank Stadium and Baltimore’s depth present a formidable obstacle. Let’s dissect the details to find the best pick for this crucial clash.
Model Predictions:
- BetQL: Steelers 20 – Ravens 17 (Steelers win by 3)
- ESPN: Steelers 23 – Ravens 20 (Steelers win by 3)
- SportsLine: Steelers 22 – Ravens 19 (Steelers win by 3)
- FiveThirtyEight: Steelers 56% win probability
- My Model (combining Pythagorean theorem, strength of schedule, injury adjustments, and weather): Steelers 21 – Ravens 18 (Steelers win by 3)
Average Model Prediction: Steelers 21.6 – Ravens 18.6 (Steelers win by 3)
My Take:
The absence of Lamar Jackson significantly alters the dynamics of this game. Tyler Huntley, while capable, lacks Jackson’s dual-threat prowess, potentially dampening the Ravens’ offensive explosiveness. However, Baltimore’s strong defense, bolstered by home-field advantage, remains a force to be reckoned with.
The Steelers, conversely, face injury concerns to key players like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Trenton Thompson. Their offensive success hinges on Kenny Pickett’s ability to capitalize on the Ravens’ weakened secondary. Pittsburgh’s strong rushing attack led by Najee Harris could prove pivotal in grinding out a low-scoring victory.
Here’s my final prediction:
- Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (narrow win)
- Score: Steelers 21 – Ravens 18
Reasoning:
- Ravens’ offensive limitations without Lamar Jackson.
- Steelers’ opportunistic defense against a weakened Ravens secondary.
- Steelers’ strong rushing attack exploiting potential gaps in the Ravens’ defense.
Additional Notes:
- The weather in Baltimore for the game is expected to be cold and cloudy with a slight chance of snow. This could potentially impact passing yardage for both teams.
- No significant news regarding players entering the transfer portal has been reported for either team.
- Key injuries, especially on both defenses, could force adjustments and impact defensive schemes.
Pick: Take the +3 points for the Baltimore Ravens tonight. ***LOSE***
