Date: Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
Arena: University of Dayton Arena Dayton, OH
The 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off with a captivating First Four matchup on Wednesday night. In one corner, the Boise State Broncos, a team brimming with quiet confidence despite a perceived snub by the selection committee. Opposite them stand the Colorado Buffaloes, riding a wave of momentum after a late-season surge.
While both teams yearn for a victory to advance to the main bracket, the game presents a unique opportunity, particularly for those intrigued by the prospect of an upset. By analyzing the Broncos’ recent performance, their historical success against Colorado, and the lingering questions surrounding the Buffaloes, we can make an informed decision about a potential value bet on Boise State receiving a favorable point spread ( +2.5 ).
Boise State vs. Colorado – First Four Prediction (March 20th, 2024)
Here’s a comparison of predictions for Boise State vs. Colorado along with some factors to consider:
| Prediction Model | Boise State | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| KenPom Rating | 53 | 42 |
| Sagarin Rating | 51.28 | 55 |
| Massey Ratings | 49 | 53 |
| Barttorvik Rating | 50 | 56 |
| Jeff Sagarin | 50.7 | 54.8 |
| Average Prediction | 50.8 | 47.7 |
Boise State: Feeling Disrespected and Ready to Prove Them Wrong
Boasting a stellar 22-10 record and a conference runner-up finish in the tough Mountain West, Boise State feels they were unfairly relegated to the First Four. Coach Leon Rice isn’t shying away from the “disrespect” his team feels, and that chip on their shoulder could be the perfect fuel for a deep tournament run.
Strength of Schedule a Bronco Advantage
While Colorado closed the season hot, Boise State arguably faced stiffer competition throughout the year. Finishing second in a conference with six NCAA Tournament teams (including the projected higher seed Utah State) speaks volumes about the Broncos’ battle-tested experience.
Revenge on the Menu: Boise State Conquered Colorado Last Year
Remember last season? Boise State dominated Colorado in a neutral-court setting (similar to Wednesday’s game) proving they can match up with the Buffaloes. This year, with added motivation and a chance to rewrite history, the Broncos could pull off another upset.
Colorado’s Key Player Uncertainty: A Big Question Mark
Colorado guard Julian Hammond III, a significant offensive contributor, might miss the game with a knee injury. His absence weakens their backcourt, potentially disrupting their offensive rhythm.
Don’t Fear the Favorite: Why Boise State +2.5 is the Safe Bet
Sure, Colorado is favored, but with the factors mentioned above, Boise State has a real shot at winning this game outright. Even if they fall short, the point spread gives them a cushion. As long as they keep the game close, you’ve got a winning bet!
March Madness is all about upsets, and Boise State has all the ingredients for a First Four stunner. With a chip on their shoulder, a strong track record, and a potential edge over a slightly depleted Colorado team, Boise State getting points (+2.5) is a bet you won’t want to miss!
PICK: Boise State +2.5 LOSE
