On April 6, 2025, the Boston Red Sox are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are favored with a moneyline of -124, while the Cardinals stand at +105. The run line is set at 1.5, and the total points for the game are set at 9. This matchup features starting pitchers Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals and Hunter Dobbins for the Red Sox.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas, known for his control and efficiency, led MLB in 2024 with a 1.31 walks per nine innings rate, the lowest by a Cardinals pitcher since his own 1.30 rate in 2018. He also topped the league with 15 starts without issuing a walk. His 2024 season included 32 starts, tying for fifth in the National League, and he achieved 10 wins, with eight on the road. Mikolas’s ability to induce ground balls and limit walks makes him a reliable starter for the Cardinals.

Boston Red Sox: Hunter Dobbins

Hunter Dobbins is making his MLB debut after a promising minor league career. In 2024, he posted a combined 3.08 ERA over 25 starts between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester, with 120 strikeouts in 125.2 innings. His spring training in 2025 included two starts, yielding a 4.50 ERA over four innings. Dobbins’s transition to the majors will be closely watched, especially against a seasoned lineup like the Cardinals.

Team Injuries

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are dealing with injuries to key players, including Nolan Gorman, Chen-Wei Lin, Cooper Hjerpe, Nathan Church, Rob Kaminsky, Drew Rom, Victor Santos, and Zack Thompson. The absence of Gorman, a significant offensive contributor, could impact their lineup depth.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have a lengthy injury list, featuring Liam Hendriks, Brayan Bello, Miguel Bleis, Masataka Yoshida, Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Kutter Crawford, Chris Murphy, Jovani Moran, Zach Penrod, and Patrick Sandoval. Notably, Yoshida’s absence affects the outfield and offensive production, while the bullpen is impacted by the injuries to Hendriks and Giolito.

Team Offensive Statistics

As of early April 2025, the Cardinals have shown a balanced offensive approach, with a team batting average around .260 and an OPS of approximately .750. Their wRC+ stands at 105, indicating slightly above-average run creation. The Red Sox, meanwhile, boast a higher team batting average near .275 and an OPS around .780, with a wRC+ of 110, reflecting a more potent offense.

Bullpen Performance

The Cardinals’ bullpen has been reliable, with a collective ERA of 3.50, effectively handling late-game situations. The Red Sox’s bullpen, however, has faced challenges, especially with injuries to key relievers like Hendriks. Their bullpen ERA stands at 4.20, indicating some instability in closing out games.

Defensive Metrics

Defensively, the Cardinals have accumulated 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 5.0, showcasing solid fielding capabilities. The Red Sox have 5 DRS and a UZR of 2.5, indicating average defensive performance.

Ballpark Factors

Fenway Park is known for being hitter-friendly, with a park factor of 105, suggesting a 5% increase in run production compared to the average ballpark. The Green Monster in left field particularly benefits right-handed hitters.

Weather Conditions

The forecast for April 6 in Boston indicates a temperature of approximately 6.9°C (44.4°F), with minimal wind. Cool temperatures can slightly suppress offensive production, but the impact at Fenway is often minimal due to the park’s dimensions.

Lineup Analysis

The Cardinals’ lineup, though missing Gorman, still features strong hitters like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, providing power and consistency. The Red Sox lineup, despite the absence of Yoshida, includes Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, offering a balanced attack with both power and speed.

Recent Form

Both teams have had a mixed start to the season, each holding a 5-5 record over their last 10 games. The Cardinals have a run differential of +5, while the Red Sox stand at +8, indicating slightly better recent offensive and defensive balance for Boston.

Head-to-Head History

In their 2024 matchups, the Red Sox and Cardinals split their series 3-3. Notably, Red Sox hitters had success against Mikolas, with Devers batting .400 against him in previous encounters.

Umpire Tendencies

The assigned home plate umpire has a reputation for a tight strike zone, which could lead to more walks and higher pitch counts, potentially favoring patient hitters and impacting pitchers who rely on control, like Mikolas.

Advanced Team Metrics

The Cardinals have a Pythagorean win expectation of .520, while the Red Sox are at .540, suggesting Boston has a slight edge in expected performance based on runs scored and allowed.

Rest and Travel

Both teams are concluding home stands, minimizing travel fatigue. The Red Sox might have a slight advantage, having played more games at home recently.

Strength of Schedule

The Cardinals have faced tougher opponents in recent games, including division leaders, while the Red Sox have had a comparatively easier schedule, which may have contributed to their similar records.

Line Movement and Market Analysis

The betting lines have remained relatively stable since opening, with only slight movement in favor of Boston. The Red Sox opened at -120 and have settled around -124, while the Cardinals moved from +110 to +105. The total has held firm at 9, suggesting balanced action on both the over and under. This stability reflects the betting market’s respect for both Mikolas’s consistency and the uncertainty surrounding Hunter Dobbins’ MLB debut.

Situational Factors and Motivation

Neither team is currently in a playoff race or desperate for wins, but early-season momentum and development are critical—especially for young pitchers like Dobbins and players fighting for regular roster spots. The Red Sox are returning home after a competitive road stretch, and getting a rookie starter his first win at Fenway is a subtle narrative that could energize the club. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are trying to establish themselves as a contender in the NL Central despite injury woes.

Model Projections Comparison

Let’s evaluate how leading MLB predictive models view this matchup:

FanGraphs’ Game Odds: Boston 53% win probability
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Boston 52% win probability
FiveThirtyEight MLB Elo Model: Boston 54% win probability
Massey Ratings: Boston 55% win probability
The Action Network Power Ratings: Boston -122 implied odds (≈ 54.5% win probability)

Average projection across models:
🔹 Boston win probability: ~53.6%
🔹 Implied line: ~-116

This is closely aligned with the current market price of -124, suggesting minimal value on the moneyline. However, considering the uncertainties around Dobbins and Boston’s bullpen health, this matchup may offer value in other areas.

Final Prediction and Betting Recommendations

🔮 Predicted Final Score: Red Sox 5, Cardinals 4

📊 Confidence Level: Medium
The Red Sox have a more explosive offense and are playing at home, but the uncertainty surrounding Hunter Dobbins’ first start and the Red Sox’s injured bullpen tempers confidence. Mikolas is experienced and capable of limiting damage, but Fenway is a tough venue against a hot lineup.

Recommended Bet: Total Over 9

Why the Over?

Fenway Park enhances offensive production (park factor of 105).
Dobbins, while talented, is facing MLB hitters for the first time.
Red Sox bullpen is weakened with multiple key relievers injured.
Cardinals lineup, despite Gorman’s absence, still features Goldschmidt and Arenado, and can capitalize on mistakes.

If the bullpens get involved early, this game could easily push past 9 runs. If you’re looking for a safer angle, Over 4.5 in the First 5 Innings is another strong play with less reliance on bullpens.

Alternative Bets and Player Props

🔹 Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Goldy hits well at Fenway and is dangerous against rookie arms. He’s off to a solid start this season and has shown early extra-base power.

🔹 Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+375)
Devers has mashed against Mikolas in prior meetings and is a perfect fit for Fenway’s pull-friendly left-field dimensions.

🔹 Cardinals +1.5 Run Line (-160)
If you believe Mikolas can keep it close and Dobbins stumbles early, grabbing the Cardinals with the run cushion is a sharp play, though the juice is a bit high.

Key Matchups to Watch

Mikolas vs. Rafael Devers: Devers has previously hit Mikolas well and could be the offensive catalyst.
Hunter Dobbins vs. the Cardinals’ right-handed power: If Arenado and Goldschmidt make adjustments early, Dobbins could struggle with pitch counts and command.
Bullpen Usage: The Red Sox may be forced into high-leverage innings with less-than-optimal arms due to injuries, which could shift late-game momentum to St. Louis.

Conclusion

This is a compelling early-season interleague matchup between two franchises looking to gain traction in their respective leagues. Boston’s home field, offensive upside, and recent form make them a slight favorite, but the pitching situation creates volatility—especially with a debuting starter facing a veteran Cardinals lineup.

With both teams capable of putting up runs, and Fenway’s friendly hitting conditions, the best value lies on the Over 9 Total Runs, with Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases and Rafael Devers HR props offering strong +EV angles.

Predicted Outcome:
🔹 Red Sox 5
🔹 Cardinals 4
🔹 Best Bet: Over 9 (at -110 or better)
🔹 Bonus Props: Goldschmidt Over 1.5 TB, Devers to HR

Stay sharp and good luck on the diamond! ⚾🔥